Modeling Intergenerational Sustainability

1. FEATURING ModEco Modeling Intergenerational Sustainability By: Garvin H Boyle BPE 2016, 28 June Orrery-Software.webs.com https://www.openabm.org/model/3613/version/2/view http://modelingcommons.org/browse/one_model/4219#model_tabs_browse_info

2. Agenda • A Challenge • Define “conforming model economy” • Introduce one of the “six hypotheses” • Introduce the ModEco Agent Based Model • With an argument for the advantages of ABMs • Focus on micro-data collection and analysis • Supporting hypothesis 5 • Reiterate the Challenge

3. A CHALLENGE! BUILD A “CONFORMING MODEL ECONOMY” THAT PROVES ANY ONE OF MY SIX HYPOTHESES WRONG. WHY TAKE THE CHALLENGE? • TO IMPROVE OUR UNDERSTANDING OF THE FATAL INSTABILITY OF HYBRID BIO/ECO SYSTEMS. • TO DEVELOP A MORE RATIONAL SCIENCE-BASED ECONOMIC THEORY THAT ENCOMPASSES IT. • TO IMPROVE OUR CHANCES OF ACTUALLY ESTABLISHING A SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL SOCIETY. http://orrery-software.webs.com/a-challenge

4. TO MEET THE CHALLENGE, A MODEL ECONOMY MUST CONFORM TO THIS DEFINITION OF A “SUSTAINABLE MODEL ECONOMY” • A “Conforming Model Economy” must be: • SIMPLE AS POSSIBLE – But having at least the following features: • SCIENCE-BASED – • CONSERVATIVE– Mass, energy, and money • COMPLETE – Hybrid BIO/ECO • MULTI-GENERATIONAL - Bio CTG life cycles • SUSTAINABLE - For 1 million days (ticks) • RENEWING – Renewable matter recycled • AGENT BASED MODEL – Demonstrates emergent phenomena

5. Six Hypotheses(Re Multigenerational Model Economies) #01 – Necessity and Sufficiency Hypothesis #02 – Price/Value Gap Hypothesis #03 – Intrinsic Value Hypothesis #04 – Central Authority Hypothesis #05 – Social Justice Hypothesis – In every conforming model economy, the distribution of wealth has a large positive skew, indicating significant inequity of wealth. #06 – MEP and MEPP Hypothesis ADAPTED FROM: Boyle, G.H., (2013), “A Simple Complete Conservative Sustainable Agent-Based Model Economy – Some Hypotheses”, Presented at MABS 2013

6. WHEN YOU DESIGN AN AGENT BASED MODEL (ABM) YOU NEVER REALLY KNOW WHAT WILL EMERGE. ABM PETRI DISH UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES: “EMERGENT” PHENOMENA

7. WHEN YOU DESIGN AN AGENT BASED MODEL (ABM) YOU NEVER REALLY KNOW WHAT WILL EMERGE. ABM PETRI DISH UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES: “EMERGENT” PHENOMENA

8. WHEN YOU DESIGN AN AGENT BASED MODEL (ABM) YOU NEVER REALLY KNOW WHAT WILL EMERGE. ABM PETRI DISH UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES: “EMERGENT” PHENOMENA

9. WHEN YOU DESIGN AN AGENT BASED MODEL (ABM) YOU NEVER REALLY KNOW WHAT WILL EMERGE. ABM PETRI DISH UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES: “EMERGENT” PHENOMENA

10. DIFFERENT FACES OF INTERGENERATIONAL SUSTAINABILITY IN MODECO • BIO/ECO RULES FOR WRKRS (partial): • Must eat 4 units every day, or die of starvation • Cannot work unless healthy and job available • If hungry and jobless, move, or wander • Cannot buy supplies until they fall below 25% • Cannot reproduce until old/healthy enough • Reproduce via fission  two offspring • Must die if too old/unhealthy Micro Activities Programmed as Input Rules: - Work for $, - Buy food, - Eat food, - Recycle AGENTS: Wrkrs & Frmrs Macro-economic Indicators Emerge as Output Effects: - GDP, unemployment rates, energy efficiency, velocity of money, price indices, sector statistics, distributions of wealth.

11. DIFFERENT FACES OF INTERGENERATIONAL SUSTAINABILITY IN MODECO Emergent Biophysical Effects Agents migrate to village structure, leaving large tracts of land vacant.

12. DIFFERENT FACES OF INTERGENERATIONAL SUSTAINABILITY IN MODECO Emergent Entropy-Related Effects Economic entropy rises as the system approaches steady state. ECONOMIC ENTROPY TREND LINE

13. DIFFERENT FACES OF INTERGENERATIONAL SUSTAINABILITY IN MODECO More Emergent Entropy-Related Effects Distributions of wealth already display the signature skewed exponential distribution associated with maximal entropy. The 1% separate from the 99%.

14. DIFFERENT FACES OF INTERGENERATIONAL SUSTAINABILITY IN MODECO The most simple kind of micro-economic data can be generated simply as sums of holdings, by type of agent, by class of assets. These can be displayed as a table of values: Asset classes of Workers. Or they can be displayed as a bar graph. Assets classes of Workers.

15. DIFFERENT FACES OF INTERGENERATIONAL SUSTAINABILITY IN MODECO BSF = “BUY SUPPLIES FACTOR” = 25%. Workers hold their assets in four asset classes. Here is the bar graph from the ModEco Screen.

16. Wrkrs MONEY HEALTH SUPPLIES WASTE

17. Wrkrs EXAMPLE: If the total Net Worth of a Wrkr is ~ $22,000, four points are plotted. ASSETS: Money ~ $16,000 Supplies ~ $ 5,800 Health ~ $ 200 Waste $ 0 Total $22,000 22000

18. Wrkrs • BIO/ECO RULES FOR WRKRS (partial): • Must eat 4 units every day, or die of starvation • Cannot work unless healthy and job available • If hungry and jobless, move, or wander • Cannot buy supplies until they fall below 25% • Cannot reproduce until old/healthy enough • Reproduce via fission  two offspring • Must die if too old/unhealthy Y = (1 – BSF) * X Y = BSF * X

19. Wrkrs 100% OF THEIR WEALTH IS IN THEIR BODIES. NO MONEY – NO FOOD ONE TICK AWAY FROM STARVATION Y = X

20. Wrkrs A POOR WRKR WITH A NET WORTH OF $5,000 HAS A VERY RANDOM ALLOCATION OF ASSETS. BUT A RICH WRKR WITH A NET WORTH > $10,000 HAS A VERY ORDERLY ALLOCATION OF ASSETS, MOSTLY TO MONEY AND SUPPLIES.

21. Wrkrs • BIO/ECO RULES FOR WRKRS (partial): • Must eat 4 units every day, or die of starvation • Cannot work unless healthy and job available • If hungry and jobless, move, or wander • Cannot buy supplies until they fall below 25% • Cannot reproduce until old/healthy enough • Reproduce via fission  two offspring • Must die if too old/unhealthy

22. A Profile of WealthIn a Sustainable Society E7 A small minority are very wealthy, having as much as six times the average wealth. BECAUSE REPRODUCTION IS VIA FISSION WHEN AT CARRYING CAPACITY ONLY 50% WILL LIVE TO REPRODUCE # of Workers  Wealth of Worker  Most Workers are dirt poor, with the mode at $300. By comparison, one Worker gathered $1,800. The rich get richer, the poor die young.

23. A Profile of DeathIn a Sustainable Society E8 50% of offspring die of starvation while still young, having lived brief lives in poverty. # of Workers  Age of Worker at Death  Deaths peak between four and six years of age. The healthy reproduce at 20 years of age.

24. Some Hypotheses#05 – Social Justice Hypothesis A CHALLENGE TO ABM MODELERS It is not possible to construct a conforming model economy characterized by distributional social justice. Sustainability VS Distributional Social Justice These ideals are mutually exclusive! PROVE ME WRONG! PLEASE!

25. http://orrery-software.webs.com/a-challenge Questions? Email: Orrery@rogers.com Website: Orrery-Software.webs.com https://www.openabm.org/model/3613/version/2/view http://modelingcommons.org/browse/one_model/4219#model_tabs_browse_info

26. Macro-Economic Partition Of Wealth Wrkrs EXAMPLE: If the total Net Worth of all Wrkrs is $390,000, four points are plotted. Money ~ $210,000 Supplies ~ $110,000 Health ~ $ 70,000 Waste $ 0 Total $390,000 MONEY Axis of Symmetry SUPPLIES HEALTH WASTE

27. Macro-Economic Partition Of Wealth Wrkrs EMERGENT BUSINESS CYCLES: Short term 20-year cycles Long term 120-year cycles MONEY LONG-TERM CYCLES SUPPLIES HEALTH WASTE

28. ECO ENERGY BIO $ MASS