1 / 14

Techniques for Seasonality

Techniques for Seasonality. Seasonal variations Regularly repeating movements in series values that can be tied to recurring events. Seasonal relative Percentage of average or trend Centered moving average A moving average positioned at the center of the data that were used to compute it.

eriver
Télécharger la présentation

Techniques for Seasonality

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Techniques for Seasonality • Seasonal variations • Regularly repeating movements in series values that can be tied to recurring events. • Seasonal relative • Percentage of average or trend • Centered moving average • A moving average positioned at the center of the data that were used to compute it.

  2. Seasonality • Short-term cyclical, not random, change in demand • Measurement: • Relative to overall amount • Seasonal Index • Estimated using Centered Moving Average (CMA) Question: What does SI tell us about the season if SI = 1.2? 0.8?

  3. Seasonality Average of months 2 & 5

  4. Seasonality • Even number of periods per cycle: • Average periods 1-4; • Average periods 2-5; • Average the 2 averages. Avg of 2 averages centered at 3 Avg of 1-4 centered between 2-3 Avg of 2-5 centered between 3-4

  5. Seasonality

  6. Seasonality: Estimate SI’s

  7. Seasonality: Deseasonalize demand

  8. Seasonality: Deseasonalize demand

  9. Seasonality: Estimate trend

  10. Seasonality: Forecast

  11. Seasonality: Forecast

  12. Seasonality: Forecast

  13. Seasonality: Forecast

  14. Dealing with Trend & Seasonality • Estimate seasonal indexes using CMA • Deseasonalize demand data by dividing demand with seasonal indexes • Estimate trend based on deseasonalized data using either TAF or Linear Trend Equation • Project the trend to the future • Forecast by multiplying trend values with seasonal indexes

More Related