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Future Meat Demand: Challenges and Trends in the Next Century

This analysis delves into the evolving landscape of meat demand over the next century, addressing critical issues influenced by time series and cross-sectional data. Key challenges include periods of observation, functional forms, endogeneity, and demographic effects. The study analyzes 114 sources covering price and expenditure elasticities, obesity concerns, food safety, and shifts in consumer preferences. With UN projections estimating population growth and changing economic conditions, understanding these dynamics is essential for anticipating future meat demand trends and their implications for health and sustainability.

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Future Meat Demand: Challenges and Trends in the Next Century

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Presentation Transcript

  1. Demand in the next century

  2. First what issues have we addressed? • Typical issue differ depending on the type of data: time series versus cross section.

  3. TS issues: • period of observation, • functional form, • dynamics, • endogeneity, • separability, • testing/imposing restrictions, • demographic and other effects, and • changes in tastes & preferences.

  4. CS issues: • demographic effects, • adult equivalence scales, • endogeneity, • zero consumption and the reasons for them, • household production, • unit values and • quality.

  5. I have a bibliography of 114 meat demand or related studies from 1970 through 2010. • These studies used a number of approaches to address a number of issues

  6. Summary of findings: • Price & Expenditure Elasticities • Price & Scale Flexibilities

  7. The Future? • Developed world issues: • Obesity and demand • Food safety • FAH v FAFH • Organic

  8. World issues • World population growth by 2100 • UN projections (billions, 2004) • low 5.5 medium 9.1 zero 9.1 high 14.0 • Income growth • per capita GDP 2008 - $9000 • growth rate 5% per year over previous 40 years (http://unstats.un.org/unsd/snaama/introduction.asp)

  9. Climate • limits on both population & income growth • Energy • same as climate… • Health • potential antibiotic-resistant infections • epidemics

  10. Religion • Implications for meat demand • Household demographics • Increased demand for convenience

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