Trafford Economic Alliance Building Economic Resilience

1. Trafford Economic Alliance Building Economic Resilience

2. Trafford Economic Alliance Building Economic Resilience Welcome Nick Gerrard Corporate Director Economic Growth & Prosperity Trafford Council

3. 08:30–09:00 Arrival and Registration 09:00–09:10 Welcome and Introduction: Nick Gerrard, Corporate Director Economic Growth & Prosperity Trafford Council 09:10–09:35 Local Economic Assessment Dr Alexander Roy, Head of Economic Analysis, New Economy 09:35–09:55 The Emerging Strategic Context Baron Frankal, Director of Economic Strategy, New Economy 09:55–10:25 Q&A Session – Panel: Nick Gerrard, Baron Frankal, Alexander Roy, and Chris Fletcher Chair of Trafford Economic Alliance 10:25–10:35 Closing remarks Nick Gerrard Corporate Director Economic Growth & Prosperity Trafford Council 10:35 – 11.00 Networking BUILDING ECONOMIC RESILIENCE ACROSS GREATER MANCHESTER:TRAFFORD EVENT AGENDA

4. Trafford has been independently assessed as the most resilient place to withstand economic shocks in the North of England and 7th nationally (Experian September 2010). Trafford has a highly productive population. Whilst it makes up 9% of Greater Manchester‘s population it contributes 12.% of is Gross Value Added, 42% higher than would be expected for a population with similar characteristics Trafford is a major source of jobs in Greater Manchester and the North West It is a net importer of labour (25,000) and has more than 1.03 jobs per head of working age population against a North West average of 0.8 The number of vacancies per Job Seekers Allowance (JSA) claimant is significantly higher in Trafford than across Greater Manchester (1.1 to 2.7) Trafford’s Role in Greater Manchester

5. Trafford’s Role in Greater Manchester Over a third of Trafford’s residents are graduates (37.3%), well above the UK and GM averages (29.9% and 26.7%). The highest proportion of pupils achieving at least 5 GCSEs grades A*-C 80.3% compared to 70.2% in Greater Manchester Including English and Maths 63.3% in Trafford compared to 48.8% in Greater Manchester, amongst the best performance in the country.

6. Trafford’s Role in Greater Manchester Trafford is the enterprise capital of the North West with 1,240 new business starts in 2008 adding to an already strong business base and highest per capita in Greater Manchester. VAT registered businesses 72.2 per 1,000 head of population in Trafford compared to 52.4 in GM and 57.2 nationally. Trafford Park the first and still the largest Industrial Park in Europe - 3000 acres and nearly 1,300 companies employing 32,000 people. An amazing cluster of retail, sporting cultural and leisure attractions including the internationally renowned Manchester United FC, Lancashire County Cricket Club Imperial War Museum (North) and the Trafford Centre. Tourism is already worth more than £370million to the local economy

7. Local Economic Assessment (LEA) Trafford January 2011 Presentation by Dr Alexander Roy, Head of Economic Analysis

8. The LEA: What’s New? • The LEA endorses and reinforces key findings of the MIER … but nearly 2-years on, the LEA also tells us about: • The current & forecast future impact of the recession • The composition & risk profile of the public sector across GM • The spatial dimensions of growth down to local level

9. GM Employment Growth 2003–08

10. FB&PS FDI into UK 2003–09

11. Manufacturing FDI into UK 2003–09

12. Travel-to-Work

13. Business Base KEY (1998–2008) (Source: ABI) Hi Growth Growth Decline Hi Decline CREATIVE: 7.2% CONSTRUCTION: 8.2% LIFE SCIENCES: 0.5% HEALTH: 8.4% ENGINEERING: 2.5% FOOD AND DRINK: 2.9% MANUFACTURING: 9.2% RETAIL: 12.6% FINANCIAL: 4.1% FINANCIAL AND PROFESSIONAL SERVICES: 18.3%

14. Public Sector Source: ONS Sub-regional public and private sector Estimates, 2010

15. Public Sector Employment Source: ONS Sub-regional public and private sector Estimates, 2010

16. Public Sector Source: ONS Sub-regional public and private sector Estimates, 2010

17. High-growth Businesses Source: Business Link NW, 2010

18. People High employment rate driven by highly-skilled resident population - over a third of the district’s population are qualified to degree level and above

19. People & Place

20. Spread of Deprivation

21. Impact of the Recession

22. Impact of the Recession

23. Public Sector Cuts

24. Strengths • Part of conurbation core and ‘South Manchester’ property markets • Skilled population • Strong private sector business base • Attractive neighbourhoods and quality of life • Low levels of deprivation • Good connectivity with rest of conurbation

25. UK Competitiveness Index 2010 • UKCI 2010 shows Trafford as most competitive borough in North of England – well-ahead of other GM districts • Trafford (#67 in 2010) ranked alongside southern areas such as Bristol (#68), Harrow (#70),West Oxfordshire (#73) and Brighton (#86)

26. Threats • Public sector cuts across GM: despite low public sector employment within Trafford, relatively high proportion of residents commute to work in public sector jobs outside Trafford • Can these skills be harnessed and exploited elsewhere in the economy? • Continued loss of manufacturing from Trafford Park • Need to revitalise Altrincham and other town centres

27. Opportunities • Attract greater inward investment and maximise benefits of large highly-skilled resident population • Further exploit the strategic and commercial potential of Trafford Park • Including new office development around Trafford Centre • New opportunities exist around Carrington & Pomona • Further opportunities for high-end housing growth within GM’s current location of choice

28. The GM LEA including the Trafford chapter are available at: www.neweconomymanchester.com Dr Alexander Roy Head of Economic Analysis alex.roy@neweconomymanchester.com

29. Building Economic Resilience across Greater Manchester and Trafford The Emerging Strategic Context Baron Frankal Director of Economic Strategy baron.frankal@neweconomymanchester.com

30. THEMES • A new national economic development landscape starting to become clear • The Greater Manchester Strategy (GMS) • Greater Manchester Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP) • Greater Manchester Combined Authority (CA) • Conclusions

31. THE NEW ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT LANDSCAPE Winding down RDAs Employment - New approach to welfare reform - Single Work Programme Skills - Freeing up learning and training providers from central targets Emerging central approach to business support, innovation, trade and investment Localism – Yet a role for functional economic areas through Local Enterprise Partnerships – economic development, transport, planning, regeneration

32. LOCAL GROWTH WHITE PAPER: OPPORTUNITIES • Business support – potential for GM to deliver • Growth Hub – tentative proposal for joint bid with regional partners • Technology and Innovation Centre – potential high-profile GM bid • International trade and inward investment – drive agenda, with opportunities for GM LEP input and delivery • Regional Centre competitive, manufacturing & distribution less so • Monitor / drive regional transition work underway on business support, sector support, land assets, research, EU • Tourism and marketing • Central role in Regional Growth Fund bids • Working with HCA on regeneration and securing housing delivery

33. A solid foundation on which to build Based on MIER and other evidence Widespread consultation GMS agreed by AGMA Executive Board, August 2009 Central government signed up in Agreement in December 2009 and implementation underway All bodies now implementing GMS GREATER MANCHESTER STRATEGY (GMS)

34. Focus on Early Years to maximise impact of interventions Better Life Chances in the most deprived areas Increase the proportion of highly skilled people Attract, retain and nurture the best talent Significantly improve transport Expand and diversify economic base Increase international connectivity of GM’s firms A Low Carbon Economy – GM specialising in built environment The Housing Market – Attractive and sustainable places to live More effective governance Building a Sense of Place GMS STRATEGIC PRIORITIES

35. GMS provides focal point for collaboration Trafford – Can play a key role in contributing to the implementation of the GMS Build on work underway in the Early Years and Better Life Chances pilots and other GMS work streams such as Low Carbon, which are underway Anticipation of difficult times through public service reform agenda and realising benefits of collaboration GMS & TRAFFORD

36. Trafford Park – well connected and following rationalisation offers real opportunities for further growth Trafford Centre is key asset and growing office and leisure offer make it a major employment location as well as visitor destination MediaCity Wharfside further diversifying Trafford Park offer Other strong opportunities exist around Carrington and Pomona Attractive, high-value housing stock is in demand and housing development can support GM’s labour market Poor performance of town centres is key concern GREATER MANCHESTER SPATIAL FRAMEWORK: KEY ISSUES FOR TRAFFORD

37. GREATER MANCHESTER COMBINED AUTHORITY • The GMCA ‘scheme’ was approved by all of GM’s ten local authorities in April 2010 and submitted to Government • 15 week consultation by CLG & DfT – majority of responses were positive • Proposition went to the Secretary of State for Communities and Local Government recommending that plans for a CA in GM go ahead • Government has now approved plans approval with draft order to be laid before Parliament

38. GM LEP PROPOSAL • Submitted and now confirmed as a front runner • Shadow LEP now established and meeting monthly • Establish full LEP by April 2011 • Recruitment process • Membership

39. TIMELINE 6th Sept End Sept April Start Dec Shadow GM LEP & CA est. GM LEP & CA operational Front-runner LEPs announced Proposal Submitted Negotiations with Government continue GM Partners establish shadow LEP infrastructure Partners (shadow LEP) implement appointment process to full LEP Partners (shadow LEP) manage full consultation

40. PROPOSAL FOR GM LEP & CA TO OVERSEE • Research and strategy development • Science and innovation • Inward investment and international trade • Employment and skills • Business support for new business and growth • Marketing and tourism • European funding • Low carbon economy • Planning, housing and transport

41. RESPONSIBILITY, RESOURCES AND CHALLENGES • Ongoing discussions with central government departments through Senior Officials Group • Regional transition work underway • Employment and skills – influencing the new agenda that is emerging – collaboration with employers to stimulate demand, influencing FE Colleges and work based learning providers to reflect this • Securing resources: European Funding, RGF, Evergreen, TIF • How, in a constrained resource environment, do we maximise the GM offer?

42. CONCLUSIONS • Changing landscape - regional structures abolished and new partnerships at a sub-regional level • Combined Authority – primary accountable body that has potential to take on responsibility for coordinating economic development and regeneration and transport provision across Greater Manchester • Local Enterprise Partnership established and potentially powerful tool to realise GM aspirations • Greater Manchester needs to focus activity on those strategic priorities through the GMS that will bring long term sustainable growth • It will be crucial to stimulate private sector-led economic development, whilst at the same time mitigating the effects of public sector fiscal contraction where possible

43. Q&A SESSION Panel Nick Gerrard (Chair) – Corporate Director Economic Growth & Prosperity Trafford Council Baron Frankal – Director of Strategy, New Economy Dr Alexander Roy - Head of Economic Analysis, New Economy Chris Fletcher- Chair of Trafford Economic Alliance

44. Building Economic Resilience Trafford Priorities Nick Gerrard Corporate Director Economic Growth & Prosperity Trafford Council

45. Trafford’s PrioritiesTrafford Park 1St and largest industrial Estate in Europe Continuing the Transformation Trafford Park Master Plan Metrolink Extension

46. Trafford’s PrioritiesMedia City Trafford Wharfside • £250 million investment • 2,325 jobs • £ 3.5 million additional GVA • 170 creative businesses

47. Trafford’s PrioritiesCarrington and Partington Carrington: 390 hectares of brownfield land to provide 13% of the new homes and 40% of the employment land for Trafford to 2026. Already in Pipeline • Saica paper mill in Partington £280 million and 200 end user jobs • ESB International and Carlton Power Stations 600 construction jobs and 100 end user jobs • National Grid’s plans for employment space creating 2000 construction jobs and 1600 end user jobs

48. Trafford’s PrioritiesAltrincham • Altrincham plans for £600 million of effected or planned investment • £190m of GVA annually • 2400 job opportunities. • New transport interchange • improvements to the public realm • enhanced connectivity • new bridge between the new interchange and the railway station/Altair development.

49. Integrated Investment Tools • Regional Growth Fund • Evergreen Fund • Tax Incremental Finance • JEREMIE • European Operational Programme • DWP

50. Private sector contribute to public sector funded contracts Gap funding of economic projects Ten districts plus AGMA Public sector support for private Commercial economic return sector led growth CA and Collaborative working Key Shifts