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Western Energy Alliance Economic Impact Data: PowerPoint Presentation
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Western Energy Alliance Economic Impact Data:

Western Energy Alliance Economic Impact Data:

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Western Energy Alliance Economic Impact Data:

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Presentation Transcript

  1. Western Energy Alliance Economic Impact Data: Keeping it Real for Policymakers – the Job and Economic Impacts of Legislation, Lawsuits and Regulation

  2. The Western Energy Alliance Project The Western Energy Alliance hired John Dunham & Associates to perform the following economic analysis: • Pricing Model for Generic Oil and Gas Wells by Development Basin • Economic Impact of Oil and Gas Producers in the 13 Western States • Regulatory Impact Model

  3. The Western Energy Alliance Project • JDA specializes in the development of models and messages to communicate complex economic ideas to policy makers and the public • While these models should not be used to make financial decisions, they demonstrate the “impact” of regulations. • This can help the industry as a whole in its ability to influence and shape the regulatory and tax environment

  4. The Western Energy Alliance Project Examples of How This Analysis is Used: • The American Meat Institute used a very similar model to demonstrate how price controls proposed by GIPSA would cost consumers well in excess of $100 million • The Auto Alliance used a similar model to demonstrate the negative economic effects of CAFE standards across Congressional Districts • DIAGEO has demonstrated the fiscal benefits of reductions in beverage alcohol controls in Connecticut • Verizon used similar models to show how accelerated depreciation generates productivity gains for the economy • Altria, MillerCoors and the WSWA have used these models to document the economic cost of excise tax increase proposals.

  5. Pricing Model for Generic Well • Designed to Calculate out the cost components of a generic oil or gas well– from exploration and leasing to production and distribution to the supply network. • Model is based on data gathered from the US Department of Energy, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, and interviews with dozens of industry professionals • A Revenue model is included that assumes a 20-year well live with an exponential decline in production (nearly all production is in first 4 years) • Currently the model is state driven but will be broken out to reflect specific generic well types (vertical v horizontal) and different production areas (Williston, San Juan, DJ, etc)

  6. Economic Impact Model • The Economic Impact Model analyzes the footprint of the oil and gas production industry in the 13 western states • Based on an industry defined as exploration to pipeline • The model is based on actual employment at company facilities in the states allocated across the region based on the location of the office/facility and the actual location of each producing well. • The model uses standard input/output modeling techniques and the IMPLAN input/output tables for 2010. • Impacts by state and congressional district, and include supplier and induced impacts in every state and DC. • Data are accessed using an interactive web-based “wizard”

  7. Economic Impact Model • The model shows that the industry generates nearly 230,000 jobs all across the country, paying nearly $15.5 billion in wages. • The total economic impact of the industry is over $51billion. • Based on our model, the industry generates over $5.8 billion in business and personal taxes (not including royalties, severance taxes etc.)

  8. Economic Wizard Available on Western Energy Alliance’s Website

  9. Economic Impact Model

  10. Regulatory Impact Model • The power of the first two models will be harnessed through the development of regulatory and tax impact models in the future. • These models will be used to forecast “shocks” to the existing system and calculate economic and cost impacts based on the difference. • For example, taxes, which reduce the demand for products will reduce the well-head price of oil or natural gas. This will limit production. • Changes in production will then be translated into lost jobs, taxes, and economic activity at the national, state and Congressional district level. • These impacts will ricochet throughout the economy – impacting Districts in key states like Ohio or Florida

  11. Regulatory Impact Model BLM Well Completion Rules: • A Bureau of Land Management proposal would require that companies drilling new wells on Federal leaseholds (and those re-stimulating existing wells) submit a plan outlining the details of well completion operations for approval prior to performing them. • The proposed will also require operators to implement a number of costly “solutions” to a perceived problem of contaminated groundwater. • Our estimate is that nearly 5,100 wells currently in the permitting process and about 1,100 wells requiring re-stimulation in the first year following implementation will be impacted.

  12. Economic Impact of BLM Regulation Estimated Oil and Gas Wells Waiting to Be Permitted or Drilled

  13. Regulatory Impact Model • Our estimated costs were significantly higher than the minor administrative costs outlined in the Agency’s preliminary benefit-cost analysis of the regulations: Cost Component Comparison Cost Component Comparison per Well

  14. Next Steps • JDA will complete the economic impact analysis including the addition of payments for government royalties, severance taxes etc. • JDA will include a detailed methodology and summary of the impact analysis. This will be completed within 2 weeks. • JDA will next break down the pricing model to basin specific data. This will allow for a more detailed examination of targeted regulation and cost changes. The new data will be available at the end of Summer 2012

  15. Q&A John Dunham President, John Dunham & Associates 32 Court Street Brooklyn, NY 11201 Email: jrd@guerrillaeconomics.com Phone: 212-239-2105