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ScotlandSeptember18.com Independence Referendum Survey January 2014 Phase 1 and 2 results

ScotlandSeptember18.com Independence Referendum Survey January 2014 Phase 1 and 2 results. 1. Phase 1 (Published 2 nd February 2014). Likelihood of voting Two thirds claim they are ‘certain to vote’ in the referendum, suggesting higher than usual engagement . %.

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ScotlandSeptember18.com Independence Referendum Survey January 2014 Phase 1 and 2 results

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  1. ScotlandSeptember18.comIndependence Referendum SurveyJanuary 2014 Phase 1 and 2 results

  2. 1 Phase 1(Published 2nd February 2014)

  3. Likelihood of votingTwo thirds claim they are ‘certain to vote’ in the referendum, suggesting higher than usual engagement % 73% of Yes voters and 76% of No voters claim they are certain to vote. Among undecideds, 42% claim they are certain to vote, highlighting the influential role this group is likely to play in the debate. • Q12 How likely do you think you are to vote in the referendum on Scottish Independence on the 18th of September 2014? • Base: All adults 16+ in Scotland (1054)

  4. Voting IntentionsCurrently, three in ten (29%) adults in Scotland intend to vote Yes, 42% No and 29% are undecided; those who claim to be certain to vote are more likely to have an opinion, but one fifth of this group is undecided All adults 16+ All certain to vote S1 There will be a referendum on Scottish Independence on the 18th of September 2014. How do you intend to vote in response to the question: Should Scotland be an independent country? Base: All adults 16+ in Scotland (1054) / All who are certain to vote (779)

  5. Devo MaxDespite not featuring on the referendum ballot, the option of ‘Devo Max’ would be supported by one third (35%), and is most popular among those who are currently undecided % All adults 16+ % S1A Thinking more generally about the future of Scotland, which of these three options would you support the most Base: All adults 16+ in Scotland (1054)

  6. Knowledge about the issuesOver half (56%) indicated that they do not have enough knowledge about the issues related to Scottish independence to decide how to vote, rising to 81% among undecideds 56% of Yes voters and 53% of No voters claim they have enough knowledge compared to just 15% of undecideds. Among this latter group, 81% feel they do not have enough knowledge. Enough knowledge = 43% Not enough knowledge = 56% Q6 To what extent do you feel that you have enough knowledge about the issues related to Scottish independence to decide how to vote in the referendum? Base: All adults 16+ in Scotland (1054)

  7. Awareness and reading of White PaperWhilst seven in ten claim to have heard of the White Paper, only 14% indicated they had read any of it. Read any of the White Paper = 14% Aware of the White Paper = 71% • Q7: The Scottish Government white paper on Scotland’s independence (called “Scotland’s Future”) was launched on 26th November. Had you heard of the white paper before today, and if so have you read any of it? • Base: All Adults 16+ in Scotland (1054)

  8. Cameron vs. SalmondTwo thirds (67%) agreed that there should be a debate on the key issues between David Cameron and Alex Salmond, with 17% disagreeing % Three quarters (75%) of Yes voters agree there should be a debate, as do 60% of No voters and 68% of Undecideds Q10 How much do you agree or disagree that….? Base: All adults 16+ in Scotland (1054)

  9. Effectiveness of campaignsNeither campaign appears to have performed well so far, with 32% agreeing that Better Together has outlined the benefits of the UK and 34% agreeing that Yes Scotland has outlined the benefits of Independence % Yes voters appear to be more satisfied with their campaign – 58% of Yes voters agree that Yes Scotland has outlined the benefits of independence, whilst 48% of No voters agree that Better Together has outlined the benefits of the UK Q10 How much do you agree or disagree that….? Base: All adults 16+ in Scotland (1054)

  10. Visibility of campaignsThere is agreement that both campaigns need to be seen and heard more in the debate, though there is greater demand for Better Together to increase their presence % 73% of Yes voters agree that Yes Scotland needs greater visibility, compared to 81% of No voters who feel the same about Better Together Q10 How much do you agree or disagree that….? Base: All adults 16+ in Scotland (1054)

  11. Phase 2(Published 10th February)

  12. Most important topic in deciding how to voteEconomy and employment are seen as most important issues in deciding how to vote % * Q1a Which of these would you say is most importantto you in deciding how you might vote in the referendum? Base: All adults 16+ in Scotland (1,054)

  13. Importance of topics in deciding how to voteA summary of ranked importance shows health, education and economic issues as priority areas Total first to fifth most important (%) % Q1a-Q1e Which of these would you say is importantto you in deciding how you might vote in the referendum? Base: All adults 16+ in Scotland (1,054)

  14. Issues currently devolved to the Scottish ParliamentWhilst there is some awareness of the main areas already devolved, the results also highlight that many are lacking knowledge about the status of key issues, which may affect their perception of the debate % Q1G Which of these issues do you think are currently devolved to the Scottish Parliament? Base: All adults 16+ in Scotland (1,054)

  15. Most important way of receiving information45% say that TV is the most important way for them to get information which might help them decide how to vote, with one fifth indicating a preference for online % Any TV = 45% Any internet / online = 20% Any radio = 45% • Q5A Which of the following would you say is most important to you in helping you to make a decision about how to vote? Base: All 16+ adults in Scotland (1,054)

  16. Methodology • A representative sample of 1054 adults aged 16+ across Scotland was interviewed for the research between 14th and 20th January 2014. • All interviews were conducted face-to-face, in-home, using CAPI (Computer Assisted Personal Interviewing). • Interviewing was conducted in sampling points across 67 constituencies selected to represent Scotland geographically and demographically. • A quota sampling method was used for respondent selection. • To ensure the sample was representative of adults 16+ in Scotland, a weighting matrix was applied to the data according to gender, age, and social grade to match population estimates from the BARB (Broadcasters’ Audience Research Board) Establishment Report 2011, mid year population estimates 2011 and the 2001 Census. • Data was also weighted to match turnout and share of constituency vote from the 2011 Holyrood election, as recorded in SPICe Briefing 11-29 2011 Scottish Parliament Election Results.

  17. ScotlandSeptember18.comIndependence Referendum SurveyJanuary 2014 Phase 1 and 2 results

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