Why Vote?

1. Why Vote?

2. Turnout • Who votes? • Why do people vote? • Why DON’T people vote? • How can turnout be increased? • Would elections be different if turnout increased?

3. Turnout • What is Turnout? • Percentage of eligible voters who vote on election day • VAP – Voting age population • Most common comparison measure for turnout • Includes all people who have reached the age of majority - are eligible to vote (18 in US) • Used because of state to state (and country to country) variations in election eligibility • Differences in registration requirements - residency • Differences in eligibility due to criminal background • VEP – Voting Eligible Population

4. Turnout: US & Other Countries(Average: 1995-2000) FEC, May 2003 in Wayne

5. Turnout in US: 1960-2012 McDonald U.S. Elections Project George Mason University

6. How Does NH Compare?

7. V.E.P. 2000 US Census

8. V.E.P. 2004 US Census

9. V.E.P. 2008 US Census

10. V.E.P. 2012 US Census

11. Turnout in Raymond NH Secretary of State Town of Raymond

12. Demographic Correlates of Turnout • Voting is correlated with many individual levels factors • Age • Race • Sex • Education • Marital status • Employment

13. Turnout in Presidential Elections 1980-2008by Sex US Census, in Wayne

14. Turnout in Presidential Elections 1980-2008by Race US Census, in Wayne

15. Turnout in Presidential Elections 1980-2008by Age US Census, in Wayne

16. Why is Turnout So Low? • It’s not rational to vote! • Societal Factors • Institutional Factors • Lack of knowledge / information • Campaign Factors

17. Why Don’t People Vote? U.S. Census Registered Non-Voters

18. Is it Rational to Vote? • It is rational to vote only if expected benefits of voting are greater than the cost (Downs, Tullock, Riker & Ordeshook) • Low participation and turnout are due to either high costs, low expected benefits, or both • A voters individual vote really doesn’t matter

19. Political Efficacy • The extent to which someone believes that the political system responds to them (external efficacy) • The extent to which someone believes that they can impact the political system (internal efficacy)

20. Societal factors • Miller & Shanks – declines in turnout are generational • New Deal cohort had higher turnout levels than subsequent generations • Putnam (2000) argues that turnout is part of a larger decline in civic culture – cites similar decline in group & club memberships – “Social Capital” • Ansolabehere& Iyengar – decline due to increase in negative ads

21. Vanishing Voter ProjectVoter Involvement IndexVoter Involvement Index is calculated by averaging the responses to four questions— whether people say they are currently paying close attention to the campaign, whether they are thinking about the campaign, talking about it, and following it in the news.

22. Institutional Factors • Registration • Voting restrictions • Competitiveness of districts

23. Institutional Factors • Lack of competitiveness in US Congressional elections and electoral votes & weakness of linkages between parties and citizen groups (Powell) • Voter registration – Powell says 14% of lower US turnout than other countries is due to registration requirements • But looser registration laws have not significantly increased turnout • “Motor Voter” legislation passed in 1993 (National Voter Registration Act) had only a small impact on incrteasing turnout

24. Voter Registration • Making voter registration easier has had little impact on turnout • Some evidence that registration requirements negatively impact people who move (Nagler; Wolfenstone) • “Motor Voter” National Voter Registration ACT (NVRA, 1993) • Designed to make registration easier • No improvement in turnout (Brown & Wedeking; Fitzgerald)

25. Voting Restrictions: IDs • ID Laws passed by several states following 2008 election • Pushed by GOP, to stop perceived voting fraud • Opposed by DEM, claim to disenfranchise minority/poor voters • Courts have allowed several states laws (including NH) • Little evidence (yet) to support either party’s claims

26. Voting Restrictions: Time • Several states have extended time you can vote with • Relaxed absentee ballots • Early voting (in person) • Vote by Mail

27. Early Voting • Most states have early in-person voting • Only 20 DON’T have it (5 of 6 N. Eng. States) • Starts as early as 9/21 • SD, ID • Most states start in mid-October

28. Vote by Mail • Ballots mailed to registered voters • Can’t vote in person if you voted by mail! • New Jersey (9/22) • Oregon (10/19) • Washington (10/19)

29. If my vote doesn’t matter, why should I learn about politics?

30. The (un)Informed Voter • The problem with ALL models of voting is that the assume that voters care about, and are informed about, politics. • This is NOT the case • Survey after survey show high levels of ignorance about basic political and civic concepts. • Voters frequently base their decision on who to vote for on characteristics of the candidate (party), not issues. • Keeter & DelliCarpini: voters know little about politics • younger people are significantly less informed than are older people

31. How Often Follow Public Affairs Pew Center for People and the Press

32. How Voter Turnout Relates to Party Identification and Party AwarenessSelf-reported Turnout Among Those … ANES 1952-2000 In The Vanishing Voter, Paterson, 2003

34. Campaign Factors • Competitiveness of campaigns • How campaigns are run – tactics • Incentives for low turnout

35. Competitive Campaigns • States & districts with more competitive campaigns, greater balance between parties generally have higher turnout than states & districts that are not competitive • More campaign activity • Greater effort to turnout voters (GOTV) • Greater interest on part of voters

36. Campaign Factors • In town elections, there is an incentive for low turnout • Easier to pass budgets when mostly beneficiaries vote • Less controversy -> lower turnout

37. Rosenstone & Hansen • Why did voter turnout decline b/w 1960 & 1980? • Decline in mobilization 54% • Younger electorate 17% • Weaker attachment to parties 11% • Weakened soc. environment 9% • Decline in efficacy 9%

38. Does non-voting affect political outcomes?1992 ANES, in Bennett 2007

39. Does non-voting affect political outcomes?1996 ANES, in Bennett 2007

40. Does non-voting affect political outcomes?2000 ANES, in Bennett 2007

41. Does non-voting affect political outcomes?2004 ANES, in Bennett 2007

43. How to Increase Turnout • Canvassing (Green et al.) • Turnout goes up when people are personally asked to vote • Directed campaign information • Do we want uninformed voters voting? • Different media for different segments • Different message for different segments • Increase political efficacy • Need to convince voters that there vote matters (even if it doesn’t really)

44. Assume Voters Don’t Care • Explain why they should care about local elections • How local issues impact them • Use low historic turnout to your advantage in messaging • Guilt! • Provide information personally • Tell them you will be contacting them on election day if they don’t vote

45. Questions?