Setting the Stage

1. Setting the Stage

2. Office Hours • When • Today- 11-2 • Friday 10-12 • Monday 10-2 • Doyle 226B

3. Learning Outcomes • Analyze the theories of why people vote and apply them to the 2012 Election. • Identify and describe the formal and informal institutions involved in the electoral process • Discuss the Electoral College and the strategy of presidential campaigns

4. The Elections of 2010

5. Change • Randy Marsh on  • Change • Change

6. The Obama Dichotomy • President Obama had a first term record of achievement not seen since LBJ. • Each of these achievements produced positive and negative political consequences.

7. Health Care Reform • Policy Success • The largest accomplishment of the administration • Policy Problems • Spent Political Capital • Delayed Implementation

8. The Stimulus Package • Success • Potentially Staved off a second depression • Problems • High Price Tag • Did not meet expectations

9. Prediction vs Reality

10. War on Terror Successes in Iraq Problems in Afghanistan • More U.S. deaths in two years of Obama Administration than in 8 years of Bush Administration • Support Remains Divided

11. Financial Reform Bill Success • The most sweeping bank reform since the Great Depression Problems • Critics on the Left say it didn’t Go Far Enough • Economy had not rebounded

12. President Obama’s Policy Disconnect • Major Policies did not directly affect ordinary voters in a meaningful way • Many Voters viewed these major policies as half-empty, not half-full

13. What comes around, goes around? 2010

14. The Election of2008 • A continuation of 2006 • 21 House Seats • 8 Senate Seats • The Beginning of a realignment?

15. Homeostasis • Government tends to disappoint • We move back to correct parties that go too far

16. Factors in the Midterm • Negative Voting • The Current Political Climate • Party Balancing

17. Angry Voters

18. Exposure in 2010 • A Result of Coattails • More Likely to appear in the House • How Much

19. The First Sign of Republican Gains • Scott Brown Wins in MA • 3 Special Elections go for the GOP

20. By Election Day • 101 Competitive Seats • Unemployment is 9.8%

21. Party Objectives • GOP- Take Back the House and Senate • Democrats- keep at least 1 branch

22. For A Republican Takeover In the Senate In the House 39 Seats needed for control The average gain is 22 • 10 Seats needed in the Senate • 9 gives you a 50-50 tie and a job for Joe Biden

23. A Historical Perspective

24. Issues and 2010

25. Factor 1: Who isn’t there No Bush No Obama

26. The Most Important Issue of 2008 • Obama misread the 2008 electorate • The Most important issue of 2008 went unresolved

27. The Issues of 2010

28. The Nationalized Election • National factors trumped local factors for the third time • This time around, these factors favored the GOP • This Hurts Incumbents

29. The Primary Issue The economy

30. A Referendum on the Economy

31. Unemployment

32. Who is to Blame?

33. Debt and Stimulus

34. The National Debt on Election Day 2008

35. The National Debt on 11/2/2010

36. Budget Deficits and Record Spending • 2009 Budget Deficit was over 1.4 Trillion • 2010 at 1.3 Trillion

37. Voters wanted deficit reduction

38. The Stimulus Package produced mixed electoral results

39. The Health Care Law

40. Opinion Remains Divided

41. The Man and His Policies A Referendum on President Obama

42. President Obama’s Popularity

43. On Election Day: A Referendum

44. On Election Day: The Policy Dichotomy

45. The X factor in 2010 The Tea Party

46. The Tea Party Movement • Unique in that they do not want anything from government • Also no Formal/ Hierarchical organization • Very Motivated

47. The Tea Party was unified in its Anger at Government

48. The Tea party was a Popular Movement

49. With Motivated Voters on Election Day

50. The House elections