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Setting the Stage. Office Hours. When Today- 11-2 Wednesday 10-2 Doyle 226B. Learning Outcomes . Analyze the theories of why people vote and apply them to the 2012 Election. Identify and describe the formal and informal institutions involved in the electoral process .
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Office Hours • When • Today- 11-2 • Wednesday 10-2 • Doyle 226B
Learning Outcomes • Analyze the theories of why people vote and apply them to the 2012 Election. • Identify and describe the formal and informal institutions involved in the electoral process
The Results • GOP Gets • 100% of leaning GOP Seats (29) • 30 of 42 Tossups • 6 “safe/leaning” Democratic seats
The Results • No Decapitation of Reid • No Biden Seat • The Democrats Hold
Tea Party Candidates in the Senate A Mixed Bag • Winners- FL, KY, UT, WI • Losers-, DE, CO, NV
Why the GOP Won Structure, turnout and Partisanship
Structural Factors • Timing • Availability
Turnout • Very Similar to 2006 • A Smaller Electorate than 2008
Card Check Don’t Ask Don’t Tell Public Option A Larger Stimulus Bill Immigration Reform Bringing the Troops Home Low Motivation from The Left • Every Democratic Group claimed responsibility for President Obama’s Victory • Supporters wanted immediate policy change on their issue
Who Voted • GOP was more energized • More conservative • Older • Whiter
The Nomination The First Step
Starting the Process • You have to decide as many as 8 or 12 years in advance • You have to begin your exploratory campaign 2-3 years before the general election • The Reluctant do not win
You have to wait for your window • You do not want to run against a popular president • 1984, 1996
The Nomination Window: Not Your Turn • You may not want to run against an 8 year Vice-President • 1960, 1988, 2000
The Nomination Window: Spoiler • You do not want to run against your party’s incumbent • 1976, 1980
The Nomination Window: National Factors • You Want National Trends to be in your favor • 1964, 1952, 2008
The Nomination Window: Keeping your day job • It is difficult to run for two offices at once • You might go 0-2
The 2012 Window • Obama’s 2008 victory meant the Democrats had to wait until 2016. • For Republicans 2012 was wide open
You Cannot Beat Someone with No One Candidates Matter
Presidents and Vice-Presidents • Presidents have the best chance at nomination • V-P’s are the default candidates • In 2012 The GOP had Neither
U.S. Senators • Advantages • Disadvantages Before Obama, Harding and Kennedy only senators to go straight to the White House
Governors • Advantages • Disadvantages
House Members • Who? • Victims of the Permanent Campaign
Other Offices • No Chance Anymore • Provide a little fun
The Class of 2010 • The 2010 class wanted to wait • Still to new to office
When Deciding to Run, Candidates use the following Calculus Lose< Not Run< Win
The GOP Field in 2012 Presidential Jobs Non-Presidential Jobs House Members Gingrich Bachmann Paul Other Herman Cain • Governors • Perry • Romney • Huntsman • Senators • Santorum