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Setting the Stage

This session will explore the theories behind voter behavior, examining how these concepts applied to the 2012 U.S. elections. Participants will learn about formal and informal institutions influencing the electoral process, highlighting the GOP's victories in House and Senate races. We will discuss key factors like turnout, demographics, and regional variations. Additionally, we will analyze the nomination process for presidential candidates, considering historical trends and political contexts that shaped the electoral landscape.

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Setting the Stage

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Presentation Transcript

  1. Setting the Stage

  2. Office Hours • When • Today- 11-2 • Wednesday 10-2 • Doyle 226B

  3. Learning Outcomes • Analyze the theories of why people vote and apply them to the 2012 Election. • Identify and describe the formal and informal institutions involved in the electoral process

  4. The House elections

  5. The Results • GOP Gets • 100% of leaning GOP Seats (29) • 30 of 42 Tossups • 6 “safe/leaning” Democratic seats

  6. The Senate

  7. The Results • No Decapitation of Reid • No Biden Seat • The Democrats Hold

  8. Tea Party Candidates in the Senate A Mixed Bag • Winners- FL, KY, UT, WI • Losers-, DE, CO, NV

  9. Why the GOP Won Structure, turnout and Partisanship

  10. Structural Factors • Timing • Availability

  11. Turnout • Very Similar to 2006 • A Smaller Electorate than 2008

  12. Card Check Don’t Ask Don’t Tell Public Option A Larger Stimulus Bill Immigration Reform Bringing the Troops Home Low Motivation from The Left • Every Democratic Group claimed responsibility for President Obama’s Victory • Supporters wanted immediate policy change on their issue

  13. Who Voted • GOP was more energized • More conservative • Older • Whiter

  14. Race and Age

  15. Gender and Region

  16. Partisanship and Ideology

  17. The Elections of 2010 Set the Stage for the next two years

  18. The Nomination The First Step

  19. Starting the Process • You have to decide as many as 8 or 12 years in advance • You have to begin your exploratory campaign 2-3 years before the general election • The Reluctant do not win

  20. You have to wait for your window • You do not want to run against a popular president • 1984, 1996

  21. The Nomination Window: Not Your Turn • You may not want to run against an 8 year Vice-President • 1960, 1988, 2000

  22. The Nomination Window: Spoiler • You do not want to run against your party’s incumbent • 1976, 1980

  23. The Nomination Window: National Factors • You Want National Trends to be in your favor • 1964, 1952, 2008

  24. The Nomination Window: Keeping your day job • It is difficult to run for two offices at once • You might go 0-2

  25. A Candidate Who Says they aren’t running, just might..

  26. 2008 Was open for Both parties

  27. The 2012 Window • Obama’s 2008 victory meant the Democrats had to wait until 2016. • For Republicans 2012 was wide open

  28. The 2016 is likely to be wide-open for both parties again

  29. You Cannot Beat Someone with No One Candidates Matter

  30. Not all offices are created Equal

  31. Presidents and Vice-Presidents • Presidents have the best chance at nomination • V-P’s are the default candidates • In 2012 The GOP had Neither

  32. U.S. Senators • Advantages • Disadvantages Before Obama, Harding and Kennedy only senators to go straight to the White House

  33. Governors • Advantages • Disadvantages

  34. House Members • Who? • Victims of the Permanent Campaign

  35. Other Offices • No Chance Anymore • Provide a little fun

  36. In 2012 Old Familiars Sat it out

  37. The Class of 2010 • The 2010 class wanted to wait • Still to new to office

  38. When Deciding to Run, Candidates use the following Calculus Lose< Not Run< Win

  39. The GOP Field in 2012 Presidential Jobs Non-Presidential Jobs House Members Gingrich Bachmann Paul Other Herman Cain • Governors • Perry • Romney • Huntsman • Senators • Santorum

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