Low Achievers’ Risky Pathways: PISA literacy Scores as Predictors of Upper Secondary Enrolment and Graduation

1. Low Achievers’ Risky Pathways: PISA literacy Scores as Predictors of Upper Secondary Enrolment and Graduation Barbara E. Stalder University of Basel/Institute of Sociology INNOVATIVE APPRENTICESHIPS: Promoting Successful School-to-Work Transitions 17 – 18 September 2009, Turin

2. PISA: results 2000 Literacy according to PISA captures students’ “ability to apply knowledge and skills in key subject areas and to communicate effectively in problem analysis and problem solving”. Reading literacy is defined as “the ability to understand, use and reflect on written texts in order to achieve one’s goals, to develop one’s knowledge and potential, and to participate effectively in society” (OECD/PISA 2001, p. 21). More than 20% of the 15 year old in Switzerland with literacy level smaller than or equal to 1... ECER 2002 - B. E. Stalder

3. PISA: results 2000 Level 1: At best, young people who attain competence level 1 have rudimentary reading skill. While they can retrieve individual items of information from texts and combine them with their existing knowledge, they cannot use this reading for learning to any satisfactory extent. Below level 1: Young people who do not attain level 1 have serious problems retrieving items of information from a very simple text. They are unable to identify the main topic of the text or to link what they have read to aspects of their day-to-day knowledge. (Press release Federal Statistical Office, December 2001) More than 20% of the 15 year old in Switzerland with literacy level smaller than or equal to 1... ECER 2002 - B. E. Stalder

4. Research questions • Assumption: Successful transition from compulsory school to upper secondary education seems endangered • Objective and subjective criteria of successful transition: • Success is “as a state in which individuals are employed after leaving school, perform at levels acceptable to their employers, and have positive attitudes towards their work environments and job requirements” (Ng & Feldman, 2007, p. 116). • Objective: Enrolment in and graduation from certifying upper secondary education (=VET-diploma)? • Subjective: Enrolled in apprenticeship, which corresponds to interests and skills? VET in Switzerland - Brisbane 2008

5. Dual VET: Levels of certification • 3-4 year apprenticeship • Low, medium and high academic requirements and prestige • Federal diploma of vocational education and training • Possibility to combine with vocational ‘matura’ (prof. bacc.) • Vocational ‘matura’ • Always in addition to apprenticeship (parallel or afterwards) • Admittance to universities of applied science • 2 year apprenticeship (new!) • New programme, 20 occupations, more to come • “More practically gifted” young people • Possibility for special support if needed • Basic federal certificate of vocational education and training

6. Research objective: Description and explanation of pathways from school to work Focus: Critical, non-linear pathways, at-risk youth Longitudinal design, annual surveys, 7 additional waves until 2007 Based on first PISA-study 2000 Sample: 5500 school-leavers from all language regions Not so smooth TRansitions from Education to Work Findings from the Swiss longitudinal Youth Study TREE

7. Objective success: enrolment in education Not reached upper secondary certification in 2006: Level ≤1: 38% Level 2: 21% Level 3: 8% Level ≥4: 3% Source: TREE

8. Risk factors of early dropout (no certificate until 2006) Multinomial logistic regression: • Educational situation in 2001 [in cert. education] • in gap year/intermediate solution (odds ratio: 3.26) • Not participating in any kind of education (odds ratio 9.43) • Migrant background [Swiss] • First generation (odds ratio 2.21) • Reading literacy [level 2] • Level 1 or below (odds ratio 1.8) VET in Switzerland - Brisbane 2008

9. Subjective success: Work related attitudes Is there a difference between youths with • different levels of literacy and • in educations/occupations with different academic requirements as regards • learning opportunities/variability of work • work overload at school • satisfaction with education ECER 2002 - B. E. Stalder

10. Learning opportunities/variability of work; levels of literacy (L) and educational status (E) L: n.s.; E: *, L by E: n.s.

11. Work overload at school; levels of literacy (L) and educational status (E) L: ***; E: ***, L by E: *

12. Satisfaction with education;levels of literacy (L) and educational status (E) L: n.s.; E: ***; L by E: *

13. Conclusion School leavers with (very) low literacy skills: • Majority enrols in upper secondary education and graduates succesfully • Apprenticeships with good opportunities for learning most important -> educational satisfaction high But: • Low-achievers in short educational programmes -> disadvantaged in the labour market later on? • Importance to find direct access to upper secondary; literacy skills do less matter -> unequal opportunities during transition from lower to upper secondary education. • Only small differences between VET graduates and persons without post-compulsory certificate whatsoever -> Quality of VET diploma? Outlook: Life-long learning focus!!

14. Stalder, B. E., Meyer, T., & Hupka-Brunner, S. (2008). Leistungsschwach - Bildungsarm? Ergebnisse der TREE-Studie zu den PISA-Kompetenzen als Prädiktoren für Bildungschancen in der Sekundarstufe II (Are low achievers necessarily dropouts? PISA scores as predictors of upper secondary graduation. Findings from the Swiss PISA follow-up TREE). Die Deutsche Schule, 100(4), 436-448. VET in Switzerland - Brisbane 2008