What is the evolving “new normal” in political-military affairs

1. What is the evolving “new normal” in political-military affairs Walter S. Clarke Senior Foreign Service Officer, ret. Cornwallis XVII West Point, N.Y 3 April 2012

2. Two Decades of War without rest • Collapse of the Soviet Union in Eastern Europe provided temporary relief. • North Korea and its nuclear threat is a worry. • The Arab-Israel continuing crisis is complicated by the US thirst for oil. • Latin America turmoil and the US drug habit. • Mexico brings the drug war to our doorstep. • China presses everywhere (Africa, Latin America, etc.) that US is not fully engaged. • Iran presents a pesky problem.

3. Have we worn out our warriors? • Eleven years, two significant wars and multiple deployments have direct effect. • PTSD, suicides, family breakdowns, low morale, the basic dehumanization of war and the collapse of the US economy affects the military. • The US public professes great pride in its warriors, but they treat them as a class apart. • The high level of political acrimony at home creates additional uncertainty. • We cannot continue a deployment rate which threatens the vitality of our military.

4. Can we face the Global Threats? • The collapse of the Soviet Union led to a significant decline in its military strength. • While the Russian pursuit of democracy is ambiguous, it is rebuilding to again become a global threat. • China is well on its way to becoming a world military power. • India and Pakistan share mutual distrust and possess nuclear weapons. • Strategy requires bipartisan statesmanship.

5. Relations with Islamic World • Traumatized by 9-11, Americans learned to fear Islam and its followers. • There are about 1.6 billion Muslims in the world, and we ignore them at our peril. • There are about 5 or 6 million Muslim citizens of the US, and they deserve full respect and rights as loyal citizens. • We must focus on developing new tools to broaden American understanding and appreciation of Islam.

6. While reining in Israel…? • Since the 1967 war, Israel has succeeded in avoiding any actions that would limit its expansion into Palestinian territories. • The US has no effective means to affect the impasse for which it is largely responsible. • As a result, the 1.6 billion Muslims in the world believe that the US is anti-Muslim. • Can we develop new instruments to convince the Israelis that a legitimate solution to illegal settlements is in their best interest?

7. The US and Nation Building • The United Nations contains the primary international agencies for protecting weak states and recognizing new ones. • The US is the major contributor to the UN, but most Americans are deeply suspicious of it and are not sympathetic to its goals. • The US military does not like “nation building” and generally avoids working closely with UN. • Curiously, in the interest of avoiding domestic controversy, the military resorts to “mission shrink” as a means to protect itself.

8. Ungoverned Territories? • The “global war on terror” (GWOT) caused many to worry about failed and failing states. • We naturally assume that needed repairs must begin at the national level. • Leadership in most Third World states is always more vibrant at the local level. • We can develop policies to assist and protect legitimate local leaders. • The military role should be to provide security while civilians provide “nation-building.”

9. Piracy • Piracy in the Indian Ocean, West Africa and elsewhere threatens world trade and endangers mariners. • The lack of legal remedies appears to be a basic issue. • In the case of the Indian Ocean, there is general knowledge that world financial centers in the Gulf States are complicit in organizing and sustaining piracy. • Why is financial interdiction such a problem?

10. Relations with the Humanitarian Community • The US military recently appears more at ease in working with the international humanitarian community. • There is an intrinsic dilemma in the relationship because humanitarians do not want to be identified as collaborating with the military. • They know that they are almost certain to remain after the military leaves. • For their protection, they prefer to stand off.

11. Looking Back at DD 3000.05 • The original directive (2005) states that stability operations are a core mission “whose priority is comparable to combat operations.” • In the “Instruction” for the directive (2007), the focus is on tasking and the comparability injunction is not mentioned. The emphasis is directed at the civilian side of stability ops. • We had hoped in 2005 that the directive indicated that the troops would be taught something about the histories and cultures.

12. Drones in our Future! • The US military has published detailed plans to considerably increase its use of drones over the next 25 years. • Many other countries have ambitious plans to integrate military drone hard and software. • In the recent FAA budget, the agency is instructed to prepare the US airspace for up to 35,000 civilian drones by 2015. • Drones must become more accurate before becoming a primary weapon.

13. Training Matters • US military seem to be training all the time when not deployed. • As a former planner, writer and role player in training operations, I was frequently surprised at the “check list” attitude of planners • I was also surprised that everyone assumed that events happened just once without sequel. • I hoped to push the frustrations of officers and command short of armed confrontation.

14. Some humble proposals, I • “Shock and awe” is a tactic that just angers the enemy and terrorizes the civilian populations that we are trying to influence. • Do not trust the stories of exiles; they always have a political purpose for whatever they are selling. Ahmed Chilabi of Iraqi ill-fame was a perfect example. • The resilience of the average soldier, sailor, Marine cannot be taken for granted. Inform them of their missions in strategic terms that compliment their intelligence.

15. Some More humble observations • Muslims have many customs that Americans do not understand. Do something about it. • We will defend Israel against aggression. It must make concessions for peace. • America has always been about nation-building. Make our strategies consistent. • Be careful about using terms like “lawless” or “ungoverned.” It may mean that you simply do not understand the problem.

16. I am not quite done assaulting your sensitivities. • Pirates are breaking the law. Somalis will exploit every advantage, but they are not pre-ordained to accept poverty and misery. • Stability ops will not work if you do not understand the cultural environment in which you are working. This will never be easy. • Respect the sensitivities of UN and NGO workers. They are valuable collaborators. • Drones must become more accurate. • Try to make your political and military goals realistic to the terrain in which you operate.