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Meteorology 415 Contest 2 Memphis October 17, 2012

Fall 2012. Meteorology 415 Contest 2 Memphis October 17, 2012. Memphis. Memphis Sites. OBS - Memphis. KMEM 172354Z 16014G22KT 10SM BKN043 BKN060 OVC090 24/16 A2954 RMK AO2 SLP000 OCNL LTGICCG DSNT NW CB DSNT NW T02440161 10272 20244 58019=. OBS - Memphis.

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Meteorology 415 Contest 2 Memphis October 17, 2012

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  1. Fall 2012 Meteorology 415Contest 2MemphisOctober 17, 2012

  2. Memphis

  3. Memphis Sites

  4. OBS - Memphis • KMEM 172354Z 16014G22KT 10SM BKN043 BKN060 OVC090 24/16 A2954 RMK AO2 SLP000 OCNL • LTGICCG DSNT NW CB DSNT NW T02440161 10272 20244 58019=

  5. OBS - Memphis KMEM 180054Z 17016KT 10SM BKN042CB BKN060 OVC080 24/16 A2951 RMK AO2 SLP989 CONS LTGICCCCG SW-NW-NE CB SW-NW-NE T02390161= KMEM 180054Z 17016KT 10SM BKN042CB BKN060 OVC080 24/16 A2951= KMEM 180104Z 17022G30KT 10SM TS SCT042CB OVC060 23/17 A2950= KMEM 180104Z 17022G30KT 10SM TS SCT042CB OVC060 23/17 A2950 RMK AO2 PK WND17030/0104 TSB04 CONS LTGICCCCG S-W-NE TS S-W-NE= KMEM 180120Z 19013G24KT 2SM R36L/3500VP6000FT +TSRA BR BKN031CB BKN041 OVC070 21/18 A2954= KMEM 180120Z 19013G24KT 2SM R36L/3500VP6000FT +TSRA BR BKN031CB BKN041 OVC070 21/18 A2954 RMK AO2 PK WND 18031/0105 TSB04RAB09 CONS LTGICCCCG ALQDS TS ALQDS MOV E P0010= KMEM 180131Z VRB04KT 1SM R36L/3500VP6000FT +TSRA BR BKN021CB BKN034 OVC046 21/19 A2954 RMK AO2 PK WND 18031/0105 TSB04RAB09 CONS LTGICCCCG ALQDS TS ALQDS MOV E P0045= KMEM 180131Z VRB04KT 1SM R36L/3500VP6000FT +TSRA BR BKN021CB BKN034 OVC046 21/19 A2954= KMEM 180145Z 19012G20KT 3SM R36L/6000VP6000FT +TSRA BR BKN024CB BKN034 OVC055 21/19 A2953 RMK AO2 PK WND 18031/0105 TSB04RAB09 FRQ LTGICCCCG ALQDS TS ALQDS MOV E P0060= KMEM 180145Z 19012G20KT 3SM R36L/6000VP6000FT +TSRA BR BKN024CB BKN034 OVC055 21/19 A2953= KMEM 180150Z 20013G20KT 6SM TSRA BKN024CB BKN034 OVC055 21/19 KMEM 180150Z 20013G20KT 6SM TSRA BKN024CB BKN034 OVC055 21/19 A2953 RMK AO2 PK WND 18031/0105 WSHFT 0134 TSB04RAB09 FRQ LTGICCCCG ALQDS TS ALQDS MOV E P0062=

  6. OBS - Memphis KMEM 180154Z 21013KT 4SM +TSRA BR BKN024CB BKN032 OVC049 21/18 A2955 RMK AO2 PK WND 18031/0105 WSHFT 0134 TSB04RAB09 SLP002 FRQ LTGICCCCG ALQDS TS ALQDS MOV E P0064 T02060183= KMEM 180202Z 23012G21KT 3SM +TSRA BR SCT018 BKN031CB OVC049 21/18 A2958= KMEM 180202Z 23012G21KT 3SM +TSRA BR SCT018 BKN031CB OVC049 21/18 A2958 RMK AO2 WSHFT 0147 PRESRR FRQ LTGICCCCG ALQDS TS ALQDS MOV E P0007= KMEM 180154Z 21013KT 4SM +TSRA BR BKN024CB BKN032 OVC049 21/18 A2955= KMEM 180212Z 22013G21KT 4SM R36L/4500VP6000FT +TSRA BR FEW009 BKN027CB OVC043 20/18 A2955= KMEM 180212Z 22013G21KT 4SM R36L/4500VP6000FT +TSRA BR FEW009 BKN027CB OVC043 20/18 A2955 RMK AO2 WSHFT 0147 FRQ LTGICCCCG ALQDS TS ALQDS MOV E P0035= KMEM 180230Z 22009KT 8SM -TSRA FEW009 SCT027CB OVC080 20/18 A2954 RMK AO2 WSHFT 0147 FRQ LTGICCCCG N-E-S-SW TS N-E-S-SW MOV E P0040= KMEM 180230Z 22009KT 8SM -TSRA FEW009 SCT027CB OVC080 20/18 A2954= KMEM 180247Z 21010G16KT 10SM -RA FEW009 SCT027CB OVC100 20/18 A2954 RMK AO2 WSHFT 0147 TSE47 FRQ LTGICCCCG NE-SE-SW CB NE-SE-SW MOV E P0040= KMEM 180247Z 21010G16KT 10SM -RA FEW009 SCT027CB OVC100 20/18 A2954= KMEM 180254Z 20013G18KT 10SM FEW009 SCT045CB OVC100 20/18 A2956 RMK AO2 WSHFT 0147 TSE47RAE53 SLP005 FRQ LTGICCCCG NE-SE-S AND W-N CB NE-SE-S AND W-N MOV E P0040 60104 T02000183

  7. OBS - Memphis KMEM 180301Z 19013KT 10SM TS FEW049CB SCT060 BKN100 19/18 A2954 RMK AO2 TSB01 FRQ LTGICCCCG NE-SE-S AND SW-NW-N TS SW-NW-N MOV E CB NE-SE-S MOV E= KMEM 180254Z 20013G18KT 10SM FEW009 SCT045CB OVC100 20/18 A2956= KMEM 180315Z 31026G37KT 1SM R36L/4000VP6000FT +TSRA BR FEW049CB SCT080 BKN100 18/16 A2963 RMK AO2 PK WND 33037/0312 TSB01RAB14 PRESRR FRQ LTGICCCCG OHD AND DSNT E-SE TS OHD MOV KMEM 180315Z COR 31026G37KT 1SM R36L/4000VP6000FT +TSRA BR FEW049CB SCT080 OVC100 18/16 A2963 RMK AO2 PK WND 33037/0312 TSB01RAB14 PRESRR FRQ LTGICCCCG OHD AND DSNT E-SE TS OHD MOV KMEM 180315Z COR 31026G37KT 1SM R36L/4000VP6000FT +TSRA BR FEW049CB SCT080 OVC100 18/16 A2963= KMEM 180324Z 28010G33KT 3SM R36L/2000VP6000FT +TSRA BR SCT010 SCT049CB OVC080 17/16 A2964= KMEM 180324Z 28010G33KT 3SM R36L/2000VP6000FT +TSRA BR SCT010 SCT049CB OVC080 17/16 A2964 RMK AO2 PK WND 33037/0312 WSHFT 0309 TSB01RAB14 FRQ LTGICCCCG OHD TS OHD MOV E P0039= KMEM 180330Z 30009G19KT 4SM R36L/5000VP6000FT TSRA BR FEW010 BKN022 BKN049CB 17/16 A2964 RMK AO2 PK WND 33037/0312 WSHFT 0309 TSB01RAB14 FRQ LTGICCCCG N-E-S-SW TS N-E-S-SW MOV E KMEM 180343Z 29006KT 9SM -TSRA FEW012 BKN049CB OVC075 17/16 A2965 RMK AO2 PK WND 33037/0312 WSHFT 0309 TSB01RAB14 FRQ LTGICCCCG NE-SE-SW TS NE-SE-SW MOV E P0044= KMEM 180343Z 29006KT 9SM -TSRA FEW012 BKN049CB OVC075 17/16 A2965= KMEM 180354Z 30006KT 10SM TS FEW012 BKN042CB OVC075 17/16 A2965 RMK AO2 PK WND 33037/0312 WSHFT 0309 TSB01RAB14E48 SLP037 FRQ LTGICCCCG NE-SE-S TS NE-SE-S MOV E P0044 T01670156=

  8. OBS - Memphis • KMEM 180354Z 30006KT 10SM TS FEW012 BKN042CB OVC075 17/16 A2965 RMK AO2 PK WND • 33037/0312 WSHFT 0309 TSB01RAB14E48 SLP037 FRQ LTGICCCCG NE-SE-S TS NE-SE-S MOV • E P0044 T01670156= • KMEM 180354Z 30006KT 10SM TS FEW012 BKN042CB OVC075 17/16 A2965= • KMEM 180410Z 30006KT 10SM FEW012 SCT029 OVC080 17/16 A2967 RMK AO2 TSE10= • KMEM 180410Z 30006KT 10SM FEW012 SCT029 OVC080 17/16 A2967= • KMEM 180454Z 27004KT 10SM FEW017 OVC070 17/16 A2970 RMK AO2 TSE10 SLP054 • T01720156= • KMEM 180454Z 27004KT 10SM FEW017 OVC070 17/16 A2970= • KMEM 180554Z 35006KT 10SM FEW080 16/12 A2974 RMK AO2 SLP067 60148 T01610122 10244 • 20161 402720133 51061= • KMEM 180554Z 35006KT 10SM FEW080 16/12 A2974= • KMEM 180654Z 00000KT 10SM FEW075 14/12 A2973 RMK AO2 SLP065 FRQ LTG DSNT S • T01440122= • KMEM 180654Z 00000KT 10SM FEW075 14/12 A2973=

  9. Synoptic Pattern - Memphis

  10. Satellite - Memphis

  11. Upper Air - Memphis

  12. Memphis Radar/IR

  13. Guidance - Memphis

  14. Memphis Storms

  15. Verification

  16. Survey Scores – Memphis

  17. Career Scores - Memphis

  18. Up close and personal

  19. Lessons Learned - Memphis • Keep the ‘Big Picture’ in view when making a short range forecast. • Ideal conditions for severe weather occur with digging troughs and highly diffluent flow aloft. • PWAT’s >1.25” can lead to very heavy rain in a short time. • Timing of the front just past peak convective hour is important.

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