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The Differential Trajectories of High School Dropouts and Graduates

The Differential Trajectories of High School Dropouts and Graduates. By: Gregory P. Hickman, Ph.D. Mitchell Bartholomew Jennifer Mathwig Randy Heinrich, Ph.D. The Rodel Community Scholars Arizona State University at the West Campus . Research Questions.

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The Differential Trajectories of High School Dropouts and Graduates

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  1. The Differential Trajectories of High School Dropouts and Graduates By: Gregory P. Hickman, Ph.D. Mitchell Bartholomew Jennifer Mathwig Randy Heinrich, Ph.D. The Rodel Community Scholars Arizona State University at the West Campus

  2. Research Questions • Are there differences in the developmental trajectories of high school • graduates compared to high school dropouts? • If so, where do these differences occur developmentally in time and • across which variables? • If differences do exist developmentally in time and across variables • which variables exhibit the greatest differences between high school • graduates and dropouts? • Of the variables that exhibit the greatest differences between high • school graduates and dropouts which of these variables accounts for • the most variance for dropping out of high school? • Do high school graduates and dropouts academically perform in the • classroom with equal rigor parallel to standardized testing?

  3. Method of Study • Obtained familial, disciplinary, and educational data • All data were from student K-12 files • Partnered with County Juvenile Probation Office for official data • Sampled 4 cohorts (2002-2005) • Randomly selected 60 graduates and 60 dropouts from 4 cohorts • n=119 (one student was disqualified from study – no data) • n represents approximately 25% of total population of 4 cohorts • Examined the longitudinal developmental trajectory of both • graduates and dropouts across time and all variables of study. • Independent t-tests examined mean differences between groups • Regression Analysis examined the predictive nature of variables • between high school dropouts and graduates

  4. Family & Demographics 0=Married, Female, Born in AZ, and Caucasian 1=Divorced, Male, Not born in AZ, and all other ethnic backgrounds

  5. Family & Demographics

  6. Vocational Courses 0=Yes, 1=No

  7. Non-Core Courses 1st & 2nd Semester 9th Grade

  8. Retained K-8? 0=Yes, 1=No

  9. Absenteeism K-8

  10. Total Absence Days K-8

  11. Qualitative Reading Grades K-2 0=Satisfactory, 1=Needs Improvement, 2=Unsatisfactory

  12. Quantitative Reading Grades 1-8

  13. Qualitative Spelling Grades K-2 0=Satisfactory, 1=Needs Improvement, 2=Unsatisfactory

  14. Quantitative Spelling Grades 1-5

  15. Qualitative English Grades K-2 0=Satisfactory, 1=Needs Improvement, 2=Unsatisfactory

  16. Quantitative English Grades 1-8

  17. Qualitative Writing Grades K-2 0=Satisfactory, 1=Needs Improvement, 2=Unsatisfactory

  18. Quantitative Writing Grades 1-5

  19. Qualitative Math Grades K-2 0=Satisfactory, 1=Needs Improvement, 2=Unsatisfactory

  20. Quantitative Math Grades 1-8

  21. Qualitative Social Studies Grades K-2 Graduates & Dropouts all performed at Satisfactory from Kindergarten through 2nd Grade

  22. Quantitative Social Studies Grades 2-8

  23. Qualitative Science Grades K-2 Graduates & Dropouts all performed at Satisfactory from Kindergarten through 2nd Grade

  24. Quantitative Science Grades 2-8

  25. Stanford Grades 5-9 NCE Total Reading Scores

  26. Stanford Grades 5-9 NCE Total Math Scores

  27. Stanford Grades 5-9 NCE Language Scores

  28. Stanford Grades 5-9 NCE Vocabulary Scores

  29. Stanford Grades 5-9 NCE Read Comp/Critical Analysis Scores

  30. Stanford Grades 5-8 NCE Problem Solving Strategies

  31. Stanford Grades 5-9 NCE Mechanics/Usage of Language 0=Below Average, 1=Average, 2=Above Average

  32. Stanford Grades 5-9 NCE Interpretation of Reading/Language 0=Below Average, 1=Average, 2=Above Average

  33. Iowa Basic Skills Test NCE Scores Reading – Grades 1-6

  34. Iowa Basic Skills Test NCE Scores Math – Grades 2-6

  35. Grade Point Average Grades 9-12

  36. Grade Level Dropped Out of High School? High School Dropouts exited school at grade level 10.43

  37. High School English 1-4 Grades

  38. Other High School English Data Grade in Highest English Course Taken Highest English Course Taken

  39. Other High School Math Data 0=Pre-Algebra, 1=Algebra 1, 2=Geometry, 3=Algebra 2, 4=Trigonometry, 5=Calculus

  40. Grade in Highest High School Math Course Taken?

  41. Personal Data 0=No, 1=Yes

  42. Personal Data 0=No, 1=Yes

  43. Did the Student Have Discipline Issues? 0=No, 1=Yes

  44. Grade First Identified as Discipline Problem?

  45. Was Student Placed in Diversion Programs, Standard Probation, or Intense Probation? 0=No, 1=Yes

  46. First Statistically Significant Differences Between High School Graduates & Dropouts Absenteeism – Kindergarten Reading – Kindergarten Spelling – 2nd Grade English – 2nd Grade Writing – Kindergarten Math – Kindergarten Social Studies – 3rd Grade Science – 4th Grade Stanford 6 – All strands of test Iowa Basic Skills Test – 3rd Grade Reading & Math All High School variables from 9th grade 1st semester

  47. 10 Largest Statistical Differences Between Graduates & Dropouts • Did they take a foreign language? • GPA 9th Grade 1st Semester • Did they have discipline issues? • 7th Grade Reading grade • 8th Grade English grade • 8th Grade Absenteeism • 7th Grade Math grade • Total Non-Core classes taken in 9th Grade • Did they participate in extra curricular activities? • Were they retained?

  48. Which Top 10 Variables Have Most Predictive Power? • Foreign Language • English 8th Grade • Absenteeism 8th Grade • Total Non-Core Classes 9th Grade Year • Extra Curricular Activities • These 5 variables account for 78% of the variance of high school • dropouts

  49. Grade Subject Performance vs. Standardized Testing SubjectDropouts Graduates Iowa 1st Grade Reading -.27 .09 1st Grade Reading Grade -.80 .33 Iowa 6th Grade Reading -.55 .20 6th Grade Reading Grade -.63 .36 Standardized Values Dropouts perform significantly lower in the classroom compared to their standardized testing ability in 1st grade reading. Whereas, graduates perform significantly higher in the classroom compared to their standardized testing ability. The same holds true for dropouts in 6th grade, however the margin is not significant. Finally, while dropouts make slight improvements in their classroom grades they decrease significantly in their standardized testing over time.

  50. Grade Subject Performance vs. Standardized Testing SubjectDropouts Graduates Stanford 5th Grade Math -.28 .24 5th Grade Math Grade -.35 .19 Stanford 8th Grade Math -.57 .29 8th Grade Math Grade -.73 .30 Standardized Values Dropouts perform slightly lower in the classroom compared to their standardized testing ability in 5th grade math. Whereas, graduates perform slightly higher in the classroom compared to their standardized testing ability. As time progresses graduates achieve with equal rigor on standardized testing and in the classroom, whereas dropouts significantly achieve less in the classroom overtime compared to their standardized testing ability. Not only do dropouts decrease in their classroom and standardized performances over time, but the gap in classroom performance becomes further behind their standardized testing ability.

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