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Peanut Situation and Outlook for 2000/2001

Peanut Situation and Outlook for 2000/2001. Southern Region Agricultural Outlook Conference September 25-27, 2000. Peanut Situation. Crop conditions a mixed bag U.S. production on a downtrend Domestic demand slowly increasing Exports flat

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Peanut Situation and Outlook for 2000/2001

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  1. Peanut Situation and Outlook for 2000/2001 Southern Region Agricultural Outlook Conference September 25-27, 2000

  2. Peanut Situation • Crop conditions a mixed bag • U.S. production on a downtrend • Domestic demand slowly increasing • Exports flat • Stocks at burdensome level but expected to be trimmed in 2001 • Lowest prices in a decade

  3. Peanut Planted Acres by Region

  4. U.S. Peanut Yields

  5. US Peanut Production

  6. US Peanut Production and Quota 1990-2000 Quota Plus Buybacks

  7. 1998/99 1999/00 Est. 2000/01 Proj. Beg. Stocks 848 1392 1229 Production 3963 3829 3753 Imports 155 169 169 TOTAL SUPPLY 4967 5390 5151 Food Use 2153 2232 2295 Crush 460 713 710 Exports 562 720 720 Seed & Residual 401 496 391 TOTAL USE 3575 4161 4116 Ending Stocks 1392 1229 1035 Average Price 28.4 25.6 U.S. Peanut Balance Sheetmillion pounds (Sept 13, 2000)

  8. World Peanut Production by Country

  9. World Peanut Production Source: FAS, USDA

  10. Domestic Food Use Of Peanuts Adjusted For Imports

  11. Edible Peanut Use by Product 1999/2000

  12. Domestic Peanut Use

  13. Use of Shelled Edible PeanutsAugust thru June Candy Snacks PButter Total

  14. Government Purchases For Food and Child Nutrition Programs * Through June ‘00

  15. Trend in the Volume of Exports for USA

  16. Major Peanut Export Destinations 1999 Marketing Year

  17. Old Crop Carry-In Stocks

  18. U.S. Average Peanut Price

  19. Price of 50% Peanut MealSoutheast Mills * Estimated

  20. Price of Peanut Oil, Southeast Mills * Estimated

  21. Outlook for 2000-01 • Prices at support level despite drought conditions • Continuation of current trends on supply and demand side • Reduction in additional peanut acreage • Increasing yields • Steady growth in demand • Global competition

  22. Peanut Industry Issues • Quality - aflatoxin • Irrigation receiving contracts • Increased Promotion –National Peanut Board • Competitiveness in export market • Future of the Peanut Program

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