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A New Nonparametric Bayesian Model for Genetic Recombination in Open Ancestral Space

A New Nonparametric Bayesian Model for Genetic Recombination in Open Ancestral Space. Paper by E. P. Xing and K-A. Sohn. Presented by Chunping Wang Machine Learning Group, Duke University February 26, 2007. Outline. Terminology and Introduction

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A New Nonparametric Bayesian Model for Genetic Recombination in Open Ancestral Space

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  1. A New Nonparametric Bayesian Model for Genetic Recombination in Open Ancestral Space Paper by E. P. Xing and K-A. Sohn Presented by Chunping Wang Machine Learning Group, Duke University February 26, 2007

  2. Outline • Terminology and Introduction • DP Mixtures for Non-recombination Inheritance • HMDP for Recombination • Results • Conclusions

  3. Terminology and Introduction (1) • Allele: a viable DNA coding on a chromosome – observation • Locus : the location of an allele – index of an observation • Haplotype: a sequence of alleles – data sequence • Recombination: exchange pieces of paired chromosome – state-transition • Mutation: any change to a haplotype during inheritance – emission

  4. Terminology and Introduction (2) Ancestors Descendants

  5. Terminology and Introduction (3) Problems: 1. Ancestral inference: recovering ancestral haplotypes; 2. Recombination analysis: inferring the recombination hotspots; 3. Ancestral mapping: inferring the ancestral origin of each allele in each modern haplotype.

  6. DP Mixtures for Non-recombination Inheritance (1) • Non-recombination: • Only mutation may occur during inheritance; • Each modern haplotype is originated from a single ancestor. • Only true for haplotypes spanning a short region in a chromosome.

  7. DP Mixtures for Non-recombination Inheritance (2) where , the distinct values of , denote the joint of the kth ancestor and the mutation parameter corresponding to the kth ancestor.

  8. DP Mixtures for Non-recombination Inheritance (3)

  9. HMDP for Recombination (1) For long haplotypes possibly bearing multiple ancestors, we consider recombinations (state-transitions across discrete space-interval).

  10. HMDP for Recombination (2) • Each row of the transition matrix in HMM is a DP. Also these DPs are linked by the top level master DP, and have the same set of target states. • The mixing proportions for each lower level DP are denoted as , then the jth row of the transition matrix is .

  11. HMDP for Recombination (3) Modern haplotype Ancestor haplotype The indicators of ith modernhaplotype for all the loci, which specify the corresponding ancestral haplotype • when no recombination takes place during the inheritance process producing haplotype Hi, • when a recombination occurs between loci t and t+1,

  12. HMDP for Recombination (4) Introduce a Poisson point process to control the duration of non-recombinant inheritance (space-inhomogeneous) x-the number of recombinations Denote d: the physical distance between loci t and t+1 ; r: recombination rate per unit distance. Then

  13. HMDP for Recombination (5) Combine with the standard stationary HMDP, the non-stationary state transition probability: While d or r goes to infinity, , , the inhomogeneous HMDP model goes back to a standard HMDP.

  14. HMDP for Recombination (6) Inference: The prior base: uniform The emission function: Integrate over , the marginal likelihood: where

  15. HMDP for Recombination (7) Inference: Combine the HDP prior and the marginal likelihood, we can infer the posterior for and , which are the variables of interest. • Two sampling stages: • Sample given all haplotypes h and the most recently sampled ancestor pool a; • Sample every ancestor Akgiven all haplotypes h and the current

  16. Results (1) Simulated data: 30 populations, each includes 200 haplotypes from K=5 ancestral haplotypes. T=100 Compare: HMDP, HMMs with K=3,5 and 10 The average ancestor reconstruction errors for the five ancestors Even the HMM with K=5 cannot beat the HMDP

  17. Results (2) The vertical gray lines - the pre-specified recombination hotspots Threshold 2 Threshold 1 Box plot of the empirical recombination rates

  18. Results (3) Population maps: 1. true map; 2. HMDP; 3-5. HMMs with K=3,5,10 Each vertical thin line – one modern haplotype; Each color – one ancestral haplotype. Measure for accuracy: the mean squared distance to the true map

  19. Results (4) Real haplotype data sets 1: Daly data – single population 512 haplotypes. T=103 Bottom: empirical recombination rates Upper vertical lines: recombination hotspots. Red dotted lines: HMM; blue dashed lines: MDL; black solid lines: HMDP

  20. Results (5) Choose the threshold A Gaussian mixture fitting of empirical recombination rates

  21. Results (6) Estimated population map Each vertical thin line – one modern haplotype; Each color – one ancestral haplotype.

  22. Conclusions • This HMDP model is an application and extension of the HDP into the population genetics field; • The HDP allows the space of states in HMM to be infinite so that it is suitable for inferring unknown number of ancestral haplotypes; • The HMDP model also allows the recombination rates to be non-stationary; • The HMDP model can jointly infer a number of important genetic variables.

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