1. Scrutiny Presentation Pupil Forecasting Methodology, Harpenden forecasts and place planning

2. Pupil Forecasts - Background • Local Authorities have a statutory duty to secure an adequate number of school places for resident children of statutory school age. • Our forecasting system is the means by which the future supply and demand for places is calculated. • The system, introduced in 2003, is based on the audit commission’s recommendations for pupil number forecasting.

3. Methodology • Forecasts are based on 22 education planning areas, e.g. Hemel Hempstead, St Albans, Harpenden. See map. • Data sets are imported into the forecasting system in April each year to produce the annual pupil forecasts. • The data sets include: • Actual Pupil Numbers (PLASC) - Unique pupil number, year group, their school now and last year. • GP Registrations (Health Authority) - Postcodes and dates of birth • New Housing Completions Predictions (Environment Department Database)

4. Calculating the forecast GP Registrations Number of 0 – 5 year olds in an area to predict future reception admissions (taking account of cohort survival) Actual Pupil Numbers Cohort Survival rates Secondary transfer predictions New Housing Pupil yield from new developments housing Schools Details of new/closed schools, capacities and admission numbers Weightings 3:2:1 using three years of historic data

5. Accuracy of Forecast • Audit Commission guidelines are for Local Authorities to produce forecasts that are within +/-1% accurate for both primary and secondary pupils. • County–wide, the accuracy of the forecasts is as follows:

6. Harpenden forecasts of pupil numbers • The Harpenden secondary planning area includes St George’s, Sir John Lawes & Roundwood Park schools. • Within the Harpenden planning area, the accuracy of the forecasts are as follows:

7. Harpenden Forecasts and Actual admission numbers *This includes primary schools in the areas of Redbourn, Harpenden, Wheathampstead, The Waldens and Hemel Rural North. ** Pre-dates current forecast system ***As at Round 3 of Continuing Interest process, May 2006, with additional places available through In Year Variations

9. Meeting parental preference Previous hotspots: South West Herts Mill End & Maple Cross Letchworth

10. Additional places provided in Harpenden * The Admission numbers include 20 boarders

11. Managing the forecast demand • Although the forecast showed unsatisfied demand from 11 children in the area for September 2006, previous experience had shown that this was not a level where action would be required. • Consideration was given to the demand for places balanced with the potential risk providing additional places may have created for the future.

12. Possible reasons for the current position We have looked at the possible reasons for the current position which may be attributed to one or more of the following: • Change in parental preference • A growth in positive perception of Harpenden secondary schools • A higher number of sibling connections • Impact of changes to schools outside the area, e.g. • Schools in neighbouring areas going through difficulties • A change within the independent school sector, e.g. increase in fees/closure/achievement • Impact of PAN London

13. Lessons to be learned • The April 2006 forecast has started to take account of the increase in the proportion of pupils transferring to secondary school in Harpenden and has revised Year 7 estimates to reflect the change. • Improve the process of monitoring and evaluating the demand within identified hotspots within the planning function • Review lessons to be learned at the end of this process