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2012 Election Overview

The National Association of Business Political Action Committees 2012 NABPAC POST-ELECTION CONFERENCE. The National Association of Business Political Action Committees 2012 NABPAC POST-ELECTION CONFERENCE. 2012 Election Overview. 2012 Election Overview. PRESENTED BY: Hans Kaiser

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2012 Election Overview

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  1. The National Association of Business Political Action Committees2012 NABPAC POST-ELECTION CONFERENCE The National Association of Business Political Action Committees2012 NABPAC POST-ELECTION CONFERENCE 2012 Election Overview 2012 Election Overview PRESENTED BY: Hans Kaiser November 16, 2012

  2. State by State Voting 2012 = Obama Electoral Votes 2008 Obama 365 McCain 173 2012 Obama 332 Romney 206 = Romney Popular Vote 2008 Obama 69,456,897 (+ 9.5 million) McCain 59,934,814 2012 Obama 62,615,406 (+ 3.5 million) Romney 59,142,004 THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES

  3. Our 2010 NABPAC Presentation 265 Electoral Votes New 2012 Republican Total (179 electoral votes) Florida (29 electoral votes) Ohio (18 electoral votes) North Carolina (15 electoral votes) Virginia (13 electoral votes) Indiana (11 electoral votes) GOP nominee sits at: THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES

  4. What Happened 205 Electoral Votes New 2012 Republican Total (179 electoral votes) Romney Net Florida (29 electoral votes) - 0.9 Ohio (18 electoral votes) -1.9 North Carolina (15 electoral votes) +2.2 Virginia (13 electoral votes) -3.0 Indiana (11 electoral votes) +10.5 GOP nominee sits at: THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES

  5. Swing States:Real Clear Politics – Polling Averages vs. Actual Results THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES

  6. What If … ? Total 267 Electoral Votes In each swing state the average Obama bump of 2.6% went toward Romney; Romney would have won: Colorado Florida Iowa New Hampshire Virginia 61 Electoral Votes THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES

  7. And What If … ? Total 289 Electoral Votes Each state swung toward Romney by the average Obama bump in that particular state, Romney would have won those states: Colorado 9 Florida 29 Iowa 6 Michigan 16 Nevada 6 New Hampshire 4 Virginia 13 83 Electoral Votes THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES

  8. Presidential Vote by Party ID 2012 2008 Network News Exit Polls THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES

  9. Presidential Vote by Ethnicity 2012 2008 +4 -8 +8 +15 Network News Exit Polls THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES

  10. Presidential Vote by Gender/White 2012 2008 +11 +7 Network News Exit Polls THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES

  11. Presidential Vote by Gender/Black 2012 2008 +14 +0 Network News Exit Polls THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES

  12. Presidential Vote by Gender/Latino 2012 2008 Network News Exit Polls THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES

  13. Presidential Vote by Area of Residence 2012 2008 +2 +4 Network News Exit Polls THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES

  14. Presidential Voting by 2011 Total Family Income Network News Exit Polls THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES

  15. $50K was the Dividing Line 2011 Total Family Income Network News Exit Polls THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES

  16. Most Important Issue • Obama won health care and foreign policy voters. • Romney won deficit voters. • Economy voters were divided. Romney needed to win • these voters to win the election. Network News Exit Polls THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES

  17. Condition of Economy Do you think the condition of the nation’s economy is: Network News Exit Polls THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES

  18. Family Financial Situation Compared to four years ago, is your family’s financial situation: Network News Exit Polls THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES

  19. Blame for Economy? It’s Bush’s Fault Who is more to blame for current economic problems, Barack Obama or George W. Bush? Network News Exit Polls THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES

  20. Biggest Economic Problem Which ONE of these four is the biggest economic problem facing people like you? Network News Exit Polls THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES

  21. Candidate Qualities Which ONE of these four candidate qualities mattered most in deciding how you voted for President? Network News Exit Polls THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES

  22. Obama Cares about People Which ONE of these four candidate qualities mattered most in deciding how you voted for President? -Shares my values -Is a strong leader -Cares about people like me -Has a vision for the future Network News Exit Polls THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES

  23. Obama is More in Touch Who is more in touch with people like you? Network News Exit Polls THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES

  24. Candidate Policies Do Barack Obama’s/Mitt Romney’s policies generally favor: Network News Exit Polls THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES

  25. Vote for President Which best describes your vote for president today? Network News Exit Polls THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES

  26. What’s Ahead? THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES

  27. What’s Ahead? Party ID Philosophy Network News Exit Polls THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES

  28. Income Taxes Should income tax rates: Network News Exit Polls THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES

  29. Taxes and the Deficit Should taxes be raised to help cut the budget deficit? Network News Exit Polls THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES

  30. Illegal Immigrants Should most illegal immigrants working in the United State be: Network News Exit Polls THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES

  31. Shift in Make-Up of Electorate’s White Voters in Key States Network News Exit Polls THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES

  32. Same-Sex Marriage Should your state legally recognize same-sex marriage? Network News Exit Polls THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES

  33. GOP Vote Network News Exit Polls THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES

  34. Contact Information www.moore-info.com Bob Moore, bobm@moore-info.com Hans Kaiser, hansk@moore-info.com www.facebook.com/mooreinformation 34 THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES

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