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FFMPA Flash Flood Monitoring and Prediction - Advanced

FFMP Advanced: Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference, May 2010. FFMPA Flash Flood Monitoring and Prediction - Advanced. A Review for Experienced Users Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference Tom Filiaggi May 2010. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp.

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FFMPA Flash Flood Monitoring and Prediction - Advanced

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  1. FFMP Advanced: Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference, May 2010 FFMPAFlash Flood Monitoring and Prediction - Advanced A Review for Experienced Users Eastern Region Flash Flood ConferenceTom FiliaggiMay 2010 http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp

  2. FFMP Advanced: Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference, May 2010 Topics to be covered . . . • Very Basic Overview • Highlights/Strengths • Other things you may not know about FFMP • Possible Future Enhancements (AWIPS2+) • Responsible Individuals http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp

  3. FFMP Advanced: Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference, May 2010 FFMPAVery Basic Overview • Ingests precipitation data and guidance data in various forms (server-side): • Precip: QPE, QPF • Guidance: Flash Flood, Debris Flow, ?? • Gridded: Radar polar, lat/lon, HRAP (& derivative) • Transforms the data into the ‘small hydrologic basin’ world, based on small basin GIS shapefiles (server-side) • Displays and monitors according to what configuration the user has defined. This allows for: • Comparison of accumulation to guidance • Customizable time frame • Auto-aggregation http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp

  4. FFMP Advanced: Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference, May 2010 FFMPA Very Basic Overview: Display http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp

  5. FFMP Advanced: Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference, May 2010 FFMPAHighlights/Strengths • Variable, User-configured Data Source usage • QPE, QPF, Guidance (Flash Flood, Debris Flow, ++??) • Grids: Radar polar, lat/lon (& derivative), HRAP (& derivative) • Individual radars as well as full grid, multi-sourced analyses: HPE/HPN, Q2/NMQ • On-the-fly Service Backup implementation • Independent from D2D or workstation Service backup status • Drill down to single basin trend detail, when needed • Virtual Gage Basins (VGB): QPE Source QC http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp

  6. FFMP Advanced: Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference, May 2010 Highlights/Strengths: Split Window • Combine QPE with QPF, then compare to guidance • Brings much more of a predictive quality to FFMP http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp

  7. Customizable Color-coded Data Sources Type choice Accum Ratio Diff Filterable CWA (Service Backup) Time selection Rate ¼-hour increments Max based on purge Split Window Combine QPE & QPF then compare to Guidance Value added Data gap notice Multiple Monitor conditions FFMP Advanced: Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference, May 2010 Highlights/Strengths: Automated Monitoring http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp

  8. Applies user-defined FFG Strict override Modification(+-) For user-defined ‘Guidance’ data sources For a user-defined period of time For a user-defined area County / Basin / Entire domain That is retrievable Great for: Urban Fire scars FFMP Advanced: Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference, May 2010 Highlights/Strengths: Forced Guidance http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp

  9. FFMP Advanced: Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference, May 2010 Highlights/Strengths: RFC FFG Update Method • Elements of Transition method: • Apply a lag, to eliminate double-counting of precipitation in FFMPA analyses. This lag will be equal to the Time Frame of the Guidance. (ie: 3-hr Guidance = 3-hr lag). • Apply an hourly interpolation scheme that manages precipitation in a way that greatly enhances the Guidance values for the transition period and avoids increased under-warn situations that could exist with a lag-only approach. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp

  10. FFMP Advanced: Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference, May 2010 FFMPAHighlights/Strengths • Auto-aggregation • Phenomenon scale variability • Areal • Temporal • flash flood vs. river flood http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp

  11. FFMP Advanced: Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference, May 2010 Highlights/Strengths: Auto-Aggregation http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp

  12. FFMP Advanced: Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference, May 2010 Highlights/Strengths: Auto-Aggregation http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp

  13. FFMP Advanced: Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference, May 2010 Highlights/Strengths: Auto-Aggregation http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp

  14. FFMP Advanced: Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference, May 2010 Highlights/Strengths: Auto-Aggregation http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp

  15. FFMP Advanced: Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference, May 2010 Highlights/Strengths: Auto-Aggregation http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp

  16. FFMP Advanced: Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference, May 2010 Highlights/Strengths: Auto-Aggregation http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp

  17. Specific Time Frame Trends Can still view All-times QPF interpretation (ie: Split Window) may be easier for specific time frames FFMP Advanced: Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference, May 2010 Things you may not know about FFMPA http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp

  18. FFMP Advanced: Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference, May 2010 Things you may not know about FFMPA • Basin Trace • Upstream • Downstream • Up & Down • D2D hatch method not easy to see with full color image http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp

  19. Ingest Monitor Notes health of data ingest, of interest to FFMPA User-defined determination of “too old” HTML Interface Special rules for RADAR DHR FFMP Advanced: Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference, May 2010 Things you may not know about FFMPA http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp

  20. FFMP Advanced: Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference, May 2010 FFMPAPossible Future Enhancements • Enhance Auto-Aggregates: • Provide trends, maps, better names • Value-added Trends • Precip. Frequency: eg: 100-yr mark for 3-hr time frame • Moving sub-total: eg: moving 3hr accumulation in 24-hr trend • Basin Trend accumulation plots as steps, not lines • At least for VGB plots • Add more recognized and usable grid projections • Would allow for the use of potentially more Data Sources http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp

  21. FFMP Advanced: Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference, May 2010 FFMPAPossible Future Enhancements • Enhance Basin Table: • Provide area and full upstream area • Provide full upstream precipitation accumulations • Provide variable and targeted Z/R management for WSR88D Data Sources • Enhance Forced FFG definitions: • Geo-tool: paint shapes, draw polygons, etc • Usage at RFCs • Currently, AWIPS I limitations exist which basically prohibit FFMP’s use at RFCs http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp

  22. FFMP Advanced: Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference, May 2010 FFMPA Responsible Individuals • Main Developers • Tom Filiaggi - MDL: Lead Tom.Filiaggi@noaa.gov • Lingyan Xin - MDL Lingyan.Xin@noaa.gov http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp

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