Outline of Presentation

1. Initiatives of the Philippine Statistical Systemin the Compilation and Dissemination of Flash Indicators to Monitor the Country’s Economic Performance by Mr. Candido J. Astrologo, Jr.OIC-Director National Statistical Information CenterNational Statistical Coordination BoardRepublic of the Philippines International Seminar on Timeliness, Methodology andComparability of Rapid Estimates of Economic Trends27-29 May 2009, Ottawa, Canada

2. Outline of Presentation • Introduction • Initiatives on flash indicators • Data frameworks • The NSCB Task Force on Flash Indicators • Compilation and Dissemination Sytems • Issues and Concerns • The Way Forward

3. Introduction The Philippine Statistical System • government-wide system of providing statistical information and services to the public • A decentralized statistical system composed of: • a policy-making body • data producers • data users • a research and training institution • data providers

4. Introduction The Philippine Statistical System Framework of Coordination LegislativeOffice ExecutiveOffice Training, Education and ResearchInstitutions Policy-making/ Coordinating Agency Data Users Data Producers Data Suppliers/Respondents

5. Introduction The Philippine Statistical SystemMajor Statistical Agencies produces general-purpose statistics Produces establishment- based labor and employment statistics produces agricultural statistics conducts short-term courses in statistics and researches to enhance methodologies, concepts, etc. Policy-making and coordinating body produces money and banking statistics

6. Introduction The National Statistical Coordination Board Executive Order 121 – January 30, 1987 Reorganizing the Philippine Statistical System and for Other Purposes • Created the NSCBas the highest policy-making and coordinating body on statistical matters in the country

7. II. Initiatives on Flash Indicators – A. Data Frameworks • Regional Economic Situationer: Rapid Appraisal of the Regional Economy • Leading Economic Indicators System • National Summary Data Page • Expectations Survey • Task Force on Flash Indicatorsto Address the Global Financial Crisis

8. II. Initiatives on Flash Indicators – A. Data Frameworks • II.A.1 Regional Economic SituationerProvides up-to-date information as basis for quick remedial actions and policy interventions • Hard Indicators • CPI and Inflation Rate • Electrical porduction/consumption • Vehicle registration • Rice sufficiency • Tourist arrivals • Retrenchment and Workers Displaced • Number of Shipcalls • Passengers: Air and Sea • Rapid Appraisal of the Regional Economypersonal interview of key informants to obtain a general perception or "gut feel" of the regional economic performance

9. II. Initiatives on Flash Indicators – A. Data Frameworks • II.A.2. Leading Economic Indicator System • Serves as a basis for short-term forecasting of the macroeconomic activity in the country • Involves a study of the behavior of indicators that consistently move upward or downward before the actual expansion or contraction of overall economic activity • Provides advance information on the direction of the country’s economic activity/performance in the short run

10. II. Initiatives on Flash Indicators – A. Data Frameworks • II.A.2. Leading Economic Indicator System (cont) • Compiled by the NSCB to generate the Composite LEI • Contains 11 indicators: • consumer price index • electric energy consumption • exchange rate • hotel occupancy rate • money supply • number of new business incorporations • stock price index • terms of trade index • total merchandise imports • tourist arrivals, and • wholesale price index

11. II. Initiatives on Flash Indicators – A. Data Frameworks • II.A.3. National Summary Data Page • Contains data described in IMF’s DSBB and SDDS • Compilation of time series data shows trends of various economic indicators II.A.4. Expectations Survey (Business and Consumer)

12. II. Initiatives on Flash Indicators – B. Task Force 5. Task Force on Flash Indicatorsto Address the Global Financial Crisis (TFFI) Background • SouthEast Asia • slowdown of growth • worsening of macroeconomic balances • huge inflationary pressures • Philippines • crisis will last longer and “should plan for 2009 to 2010 and leave something for 2011” • Slowdown in overseas remittances growth • Drop in exports and capital flows • Exchange rate volatility • Drop in equity prices • Rise in risk premium Calls for action on the part of the Philippine Statistical System

13. II. Initiatives on Flash Indicators – B. Task Force • Creating a Task Force on Flash Indicatorsto Address the Global Financial Crisis (TFFI) (NSCB Memo Order No. 008-2009) • Functions • Identify and generate “flash” indicators for key economic variables on a daily, weekly or monthly basis generated by government offices • Recommend a dissemination system to ensure that the indicators are made available to the public • Monitor the generation of the indicators in terms of availability and timeliness • Recommend statistical policies to the NSCB Executive Board for the institutionalization of the compilation of the “flash” indicators

14. II. Initiatives on Flash Indicators – B. Task Force • Creating a Task Force on Flash Indicatorsto Address the Global Financial Crisis (TFFI) (NSCB Memo Order No. 008-2009) • Composition • Chair : Director, National Planning and Policy Staff, NEDA • Co-Chair : Director, Economic Statistics Office, NSCB • Members: BangkoSentralngPilipinas • Dep’t of Finance • Dep’t of Budget and Management • Dep’t of Labor and Employment • Dep’t of Trade and Industry • Export Development Council • National Statistics Office • Securities and Exchange Commission • Secretariat: NSCB Technical Staff

15. II. Initiatives on Flash Indicators – B. Task Force Data Framework

16. II. Initiatives on Flash Indicators – B. Task Force Identified Flash Indicators

17. II. Initiatives on Flash Indicators – B. Task Force Identified Flash Indicators

18. II. Initiatives on Flash Indicators – B. Task Force Identified Flash Indicators • Metadata • Definition • Unit description • Data source • Revision policy • Schedule of release • Remarks • References • NSCB Resolutions – Official Concepts and Definitions for Statistical Purposes • International Organizations

19. II. Initiatives on Flash Indicators – C. Compilation and Dissemination Data template Agency 1 Data template Agency 2 Data template Agency n • Compilation • Use of data template • Updates e-mailed to NSCB • Updates stored in database • Dissemination • When: Upon schedule of release of data from source agency • Where: NSCB website; links from agency websites NSCB Technical Staff Update webpage NSCB TS Website Agency 1 Website Agency 2 Website Agency n

20. II. Initiatives on Flash Indicators – C. Compilation and Dissemination Website on Philippine Flash Indicators • Contents • Time Series Tables and Charts • Calendar of Release • Metadata • StatWatch • Guide for analysis • RSS feeds • Press Releases Chart Table Metadata http://www.nscb.gov.ph/flash

21. III. Issues and Concerns • Unavailability of higher frequency indicators:unemployment, compensation, revenues, bankruptcies/closures, investments • Long time lag of monthly indicators • Distinct indicatorsNeed for composite? Turning points? • Clearance for release

22. IV. Way Forward • Institutionalizationframework and systems; early warning indicator system • Policies and interventions:improvement of time lag, generation of more higher-frequency indicators

23. Thank you! URL: http://www.nscb.gov.ph e-mail: info@nscb.gov.ph