Management of Whaling 鯨類の資源管理

1. Management of Whaling 鯨類の資源管理 Hiroyuki Matsuda（松田裕之）Ocean Research Institute, U. of Tokyo（東大海洋研) IWC/SC Japan Delegate WWF Japan Adviser（自然保護専門委員）　

2. To avoid both over-exploitation and ban乱獲も禁漁も避ける Fallacy to Seek 0 Risk ゼロリスク探求症候群 Precautionary Approach vs. Maximum Sustainable Yield 予防措置とMSY Adaptive Management 順応的管理と不確実性 Revised Management Procedure is an AM改定管理方式は順応的管理 PP & AM are needed, PA is not.順応的管理があれば予防措置は不要 Whaling & Ecosystems 捕鯨管理と生態系監視 Overview　今日の話題

3. To avoid both over-exploitation and ban乱獲も禁漁も避ける Fallacy to Seek 0 Risk ゼロリスク探求症候群 Precautionary Approach vs. Maximum Sustainable Yield 予防措置とMSY Adaptive Management 順応的管理と不確実性 Revised Management Procedure is an AM改定管理方式は順応的管理 AM is needed, PA is not.順応的管理があれば予防措置は不要 Whaling & Ecosystems 捕鯨管理と生態系監視 Overview　今日の話題

4. 捕鯨史=乱獲と禁漁の歴史History of whaling = overexploitation & ban • 1946 Blue Whale Unit • (シロナガスクジラ換算制) • 1975 New Management Procedure • 不確実性への配慮がなく、非現実的 • 1992 Revised Management Procedure • 改定管理方式（RMP) agreed by IWC/SC • Revised Management Scheme not yet.

5. Both overexploitation and non-use make no sustainable intake.乱獲も禁漁もだめ • fN: Catch • Sustainable if 0 < f < r • Stock collapse if f > r • Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY) if f = r/2 Kr/4 Production/Yield f r K/2 K Stock size 7

6. Do we know the exact MSY? No Be conscious uncertainty.

7. Recovery probability of mackerel 不確実 非定常 複雑性 Species replacement AM makes chaos. 捕食者密度 70 - 80 年代の漁獲圧なら 90 年代の未成魚乱獲 被食者密度 を続けると 資源回復確率 Requiem to MSYへの鎮魂歌 • Ecosystem is uncertain, non-equilibrium and complex • MSY ignores all the three.

8. Constant Harvest Ratio is Dangerous.漁獲率(努力)一定方策は危ない • dN / dt = r [1 – (N / K)q] N – fN, • Maximize yield at fMSY = rq / (1 + q). • If estimates of r, K, q and f includes uncertainty, MSY is not achieved, nor extinction risk is not eliminated. • Any level of constant fishing effort does not eliminate the risk of stock collapse.

9. fMSY is neither sufficient nor necessary to stock conservation. FMSYは資源保全に不必要不十分 Extinction risk & expected yield Low uncertainty in r High uncertainty in r

10. Threat of biodiversity is serious if the population is below MVP • Minimum viable population (MVP) is defined as threat of demographic stochasticity (e.g., all mothers make sons = 50) and genetic degradation (=500). • The “50/500” law does not guarantee a zero-risk. • If population size > 10,000, the mean time to extinction is usually far too long (I ignore > 1 million yrs). 8

11. To avoid both over-exploitation and ban乱獲も禁漁も避ける Fallacy to Seek 0 Risk ゼロリスク探求症候群 Precautionary Approach vs. Maximum Sustainable Yield 予防措置とMSY Adaptive Management 順応的管理と不確実性 Revised Management Procedure is an AM改定管理方式は順応的管理 PP & AM are needed, PA is not.順応的管理があれば予防措置は不要 Whaling & Ecosystems 捕鯨管理と生態系監視 Overview　今日の話題

12. Precautionary principleRio Declaration 1992, Principle 15 • “In order to protect the environment, the precautionary approach shall be widely applied by States according to their capabilities. Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty shall not be used as a reason for postponing cost-effective measures to prevent environmental degradation. 2

13. Should any few risk be avoided? (IWC/SC 2001 report, p.93) • Constant rate of exploitation of whales with environmental variability was still“equivalent to an unsustainable ‘mining’”(still positive risk) • Under the RMP, “the time scales were far too long (1045 years)” (>>the age of cosmos) • “the long time-scale was necessary to examinethe mechanisms of the interaction between environmental variability and exploitation.”???? 9

14. Can you imagine goods of larger number than I do?私より大きい数が言えますか? • Human Population – 世界人口 – 1010 • Age of Cosmos – 宇宙年齢– 1010 yrs • Astronomic scale – 星の数 – 1011-1020 • DNA combination – 生物進化– 1030 • Anti-whalers risk threshold – 反捕鯨団体が拒否するリスク– 1045 yrs • Macroscale Tunnel Effects 101050 ?

15. Kitoh’s anxiety (鬼憂) Qi’s anxiety (杞憂) Fallacy of Seeking Zero-Risk A small falled leaf fire? 22 Rodricks

16. Recipe for environment-friendly life Keep Accountability and Adaptability Justify by ourselves, not by USA Live in a Rabbit Hatch, Do not Use more Energy than 20 Elephants! Use Any Parts of Bioresource. Do not Cull, but Eat Bioresource. Human First, Nature Second.

17. Fallacy of applying PA to MSY予防措置自身がMSY不達成のリスク要因 • If we adopt biased (precautionary) estimates, expected yield is again negatively biased. • MSY should be based on unbiased, most likely estimates (Error in quota is reversible if adaptive management is adopted) • MVP should be based on biased estimates, or PP. (Lost of biodiversity is irreversible) • MSY is usually >>MVP, but is <MVP in some local population. 10

18. To avoid both over-exploitation and ban乱獲も禁漁も避ける Fallacy to Seek 0 Risk ゼロリスク探求症候群 Precautionary Approach vs. Maximum Sustainable Yield 予防措置とMSY Adaptive Management 順応的管理と不確実性 Revised Management Procedure is an AM改定管理方式は順応的管理 PP & AM are needed, PA is not.順応的管理があれば予防措置は不要 Whaling & Ecosystems 捕鯨管理と生態系監視 Overview　今日の話題

19. Is sustainable use compatible with uncertain world?持続的利用と不確実性は両立できるか? Yes If we adopt Adaptive Management.

20. 順応的管理とはWhat is Adaptive Management? • Adaptability（順応性） • 状況を見て政策を変える • その変え方を決めておく • Accountability（説明責任） • 未実証の前提でリスク評価 • 新たな知見を取り込み、過ちを改める • Falsifiability（反証可能性） • どんな事態を招いたら失敗か事前に明記

21. 順応学習とフィードバック制御Adaptive Learning & Feedback Control 勝川俊雄T.Katsukawa：博士論文(2002)より Data Fish Stock Dynamics with Fishery Dynamics Model State Variable Decision Making of Fisheries Management

22. A Risk Management for sika deer H Matsuda, K Kaji, H Uno, H Hirakawa & T Saito (Official English web site by Hokkaido Government: http://www.hokkaido-ies.go.jp/HIESintro/ Natural/ ShizenHP2/SIKA/deerEng/

23. History of deer in Hokkaido Island= Overexploitation, hunting bans and overabundance

24. Damage on forests by deerhttp://www.marimo.or.jp/Kushiro_shichou/ezosika/cover.html

25. http://www.hokkaido-ies.go.jp/HIESintro/Natural/ShizenHP2/SIKA/DTdeerHP.htmhttp://www.hokkaido-ies.go.jp/HIESintro/Natural/ShizenHP2/SIKA/DTdeerHP.htm Density-dependent hunting pressure %P>50% Emergency culling 25% < %P Gradual population reductions (catch females) 5% < %P Gradual population increases (catch males) %P <5% or after the severe winter Hunting bans

26. Population began to decrease. 95% CI Female hunting Management Program started in 1998 1993

27. To avoid both over-exploitation and ban乱獲も禁漁も避ける Fallacy to Seek 0 Risk ゼロリスク探求症候群 Precautionary Approach vs. Maximum Sustainable Yield 予防措置とMSY Adaptive Management 順応的管理と不確実性 Revised Management Procedure is an AM改定管理方式は順応的管理 PP & AM are needed, PA is not.順応的管理があれば予防措置は不要 Whaling & Ecosystems 捕鯨管理と生態系監視 Overview　今日の話題

28. MSY limit stock level 改定管理方式は順応的管理の先取りだった。RMP is an AM Production Catch quota Fishing rate MSY at 60%, 0 catch at 54%

29. Underestimation of Uncertainty資源量推定誤差の過少推定 • Drastical decrease in Minke whale estimates with small errors • Estimation is based on unverified assumptions • Survey plan frequently changed over decades • RMP underestimates uncertainty. • Why is 54%K limit? • Adaptive Learning!

30. No lower stock limit USA Fishing is possible until stock collapse Japan Fisheries Management Rule; US and Japan = much looser than RMP Uncertainty exists not only in whaling, but all fisheries.

31. Conclusion: PP & AM are needed, PA is not. • Precautionary Principle for irreversible damage is indispensable. ⇔ USA do neither join Kyoto Protocol nor Convention of Biological Diversity • Precautionary Approach for sustainable use is unnecessary. • Adaptive Management is useful.

32. To avoid both over-exploitation and ban乱獲も禁漁も避ける Fallacy to Seek 0 Risk ゼロリスク探求症候群 Precautionary Approach vs. Maximum Sustainable Yield 予防措置とMSY Adaptive Management 順応的管理と不確実性 Revised Management Procedure is an AM改定管理方式は順応的管理 PP & AM are needed, PA is not.順応的管理があれば予防措置は不要 Whaling & Ecosystems 捕鯨管理と生態系監視 Overview　今日の話題

33. Conscious of Uncertainty無知の知。不確実の知 • If BMSY >> MVP, we do not need precautionary approach for MSY. • Instead, we need to monitor Bt, catch quota is banned when Bt is below a critical level. • Even though BMSY is unknown, AM works well for sustainable use. • This is RMP. This is AM.

34. To avoid both over-exploitation and ban乱獲も禁漁も避ける Fallacy to Seek 0 Risk ゼロリスク探求症候群 Precautionary Approach vs. Maximum Sustainable Yield 予防措置とMSY Adaptive Management 順応的管理と不確実性 Revised Management Procedure is an AM改定管理方式は順応的管理 PP & AM are needed, PA is not.順応的管理があれば予防措置は不要 Whaling & Ecosystems 捕鯨管理と生態系監視 Overview　今日の話題

35. Marine Ecosystems Concerns海洋生態系への懸念 R. A. Myers & B. Worm (2002) Nature in press. “Rapid worldwide deple-tion of large predatory fish communities” …We conclude that declines of large predators that initially occurred in coastal regions, have extended throughout the global ocean, with potentially large consequences on ecosystems. Top predators are good indicator of ecosystems.

36. Conclusion: Why is Management of Whaling Important? • Make a new method of stock estimation.資源量推定法の見直し • RMP is a good example of AM that is recommended by USA and Japan. RMPは日米推奨の順応的管理の好例 • Ecosystem-based Monitoring 生態系に与える影響を評価 Big project to Antarctic Area Monitoring.