The Demographic Transition Model

1. The Demographic Transition Model

2. Demographic Transition • Provides concept to frame population growth issues • Has four stages • Stage 1 - Low growth • Stage 2 - High growth • Stage 3 - Moderate growth • Stage 4 - Low growth

3. Stage 1 - Low Growth • High CBR - High but fluctuating CDR • Case for most of humanity until 1750 • 1 AD - 1650 AD • 250 million to 500 million • No longer found in world • Even poorest countries • CDR - 20/1000 • CBR - 50/1000

4. Stage 2 - High Growth“Western Experience” • Created to explain Western European population history • Entered @ 1750 w/ industrialization & generation of wealth • ---declining death rates • 
---continuing high birth rates • 
---rapidly rising population

5. Stage 2 - continued • Rapid increase in population results from • the dramatic increase in life expectancy, which reflects • the dramatic advances in medical and sanitation practices • improved food storage and distribution • rising per capita income • urbanization that provides that provides the environment in which these things take place • Birth rates do not fall as fast as death rates • because it is easier to develop advances in technology, etc than to change cultural habits • In agrarian societies, large families considered advantageous because the children are seen as social security for aging parents and they also contribute to the family economy even before the parents get old.

6. Importation of medical techology rather than homegrown tech. change • Many countries in Latin America and southern and southwestern Asia are in stage 2. • Syria, with a birth rate of 33 and a death rate of 6; • Guatemala=birth rate of 37, death rate of 7. • In most of these countries the doubling time is 20 to 25 years.

7. Stage 3 - Moderate Growth • Comes changing social attitudes • When the birth rates decline as people get control of their family size • The advantages of a large family in an agrarian society are no longer evident in an urban society. • many urban societies view children as economic liabilities rather than assets • When the birth rate falls and the death rate remains low, the population size begins to level off • Chile, Sri Lanka, and Thailand are among the countries now with low death rates and transitional birth rates of this 3rd stage.

8. Stage 4 - Low Growth • Essentially all European countries, Canada, Australia, Japan are among the 50 or so states • ---It is characterized by low birth rates • ---Low death rates • ---It yields only slight increases in population • ---Population doubling times may be as long as 1000 years or more if the low birth rates continue • In some countries of Central and Eastern Europe, death rates have begun to equal or exceed birth rates, and populations are declining.

9. Stage 5 and beyond??? • A Stage of population decrease. So far this is confined to the developed world in general, not just Europe. • Japan has a slight natural increase that will become a decrease in near future • Taiwan forecasts zero or negative population growth by 2035.