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AP Statistics

Learn to create and carry out simulations, estimate probability, observe relative frequency, and simulate repeated procedures. Explore various examples like missile defense, rumor, duck hunt, birthday, and baseball problems.

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AP Statistics

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  1. AP Statistics Section 6.1 Simulations

  2. Objective: To be able to create and carry out a simulation. Probability: the branch of mathematics that describes the pattern of chance outcomes. Models for Estimating Probability • Observe and calculate relative frequency. • Use a probability model and calculate the theoretical answer. • Start with a model and then simulate many repetitions of the procedure.

  3. Simulation is the imitation of chance behavior based on a model that accurately reflects the phenomenon under consideration. Steps: • State or describe the problem. • State the assumptions. • Assign digits to outcomes and describe the procedure. *** • Simulate many repetitions. • Calculate the relative frequency and state the conclusions. Trial: one repetition of the simulation. Trials are independent if the results of one trial do not influence the results of the next trial.

  4. Ex. 1 Simulate the chance that the Eagles make the playoffs this season.

  5. Ex. 2 Missile Defense Problem. An intercepting missile has a 60% success rate. The government has decided to launch 4 interceptors at each incoming missile. Simulate the likelihood that the incoming missile hits its target. (all interceptors miss)

  6. Ex. 3 The Rumor Problem Ex. 4 The Duck Hunt

  7. Ex. 5 The Birthday Problem Ex. 6 The Baseball Problem

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