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Power in the Asia Pacific

Power in the Asia Pacific . Is this now the centre of the world?. International Relations Fundamental Changes. The complexity of international relations – 3 dimensions End of the Cold War – competition with USSR redundant but Vietnam / DPRK / China.

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Power in the Asia Pacific

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  1. Power in the Asia Pacific Is this now the centre of the world?

  2. International Relations Fundamental Changes • The complexity of international relations – 3 dimensions • End of the Cold War – competition with USSR redundant but Vietnam / DPRK / China. • Critical points of tension eg DPRK – nuclear non proliferation, Taiwan. • Huge established and developing economies • Critical to Australia. • APEC / ASEAN – vibrant multilateral forums • China the next super power

  3. Ingredients • Military – can you use the force? Iraq / Desert Storm? Somalia? Afghanistan? The DPRK? • Economic – US deficit, China surplus, Australia commodities, interrelationships and shared interests eg GFC • Geography – Is is power or is it context? Aust? • Population – Potential interest / investment • Political system - relationships • Relationships – allies US / Aust – US Taiwan • History - context

  4. The US in Asia • History – imperialism / engagement • Super power • War on terror assumes cooperation • Taiwan Relations Act • Relationship with Japan / ROK / Australia • DPRK / Taiwan potential flashpoints • What is the US’s National interest in the Asia Pacific?

  5. ASEAN • Acts collectively, inclusively and avoids criticism. • Pivotal forum eg ARF • Specific aims to promote trade and regional stability, • Reduce potential military conflict eg nuclear proliferation • Follows ideas of WTO

  6. APEC • 33% of worlds population • 60 % of GDP • Debate and consensus • Focus on economic issues • Multilateral forums • An opportunity for discussion. G 8 / G 20 now more potent.

  7. National Interest • Defines foreign policy • Common general themes • Some specifics eg China and territorial integrity. US and terrorism. • Competing interests. China and political freedoms vs rejection of independence Xianjing. • Different perspectives • Goals – China GDP doubles by 2020

  8. Power – Complex and InterrelatedUnilateral / bilateral / multilateralGlobalisation • A three dimensional view allows a more effective and accurate assessment of power and relationships. • A bit like a recipe.

  9. China – The Next Superpower • Military – 4.3% of GDP / nuclear power • Population – 1.4 billion • Communist with strong capitalist links. Almost acts as a multinational corporation. • Per capita GDP - $5300 and increasing • Size – 9.6 million square kilometres • Strong current account surplus – 220 billion 2010 • 19.4% of exports to the US • Economic growth at 10% • Security council member

  10. China – National Interests • Economic development • Territorial integrity • Improved international standing • Harmonious socialist society • Plus a range of other interests that include regional stability, security for the DPRK, influence in the world order.

  11. Economic Development • Growth GDP, current account, overseas investment – significant • Policy – joined WTO, Most Favoured Nation clause –US, private ownership, tarriffs from 56 to 11 % • GDP per capita to double by 2020. • Problems – environment, disparity in wealth, corruption, one child policy population increase and under employment

  12. Territorial Integrity • Issues – Taiwan / Tibet / Xianjing – Uighur • Separatism • China – a state not a nation state • One China policy – Taiwan • Harmonious socialist state • Hong Kong – an example – separate administrative unit. One country two systems

  13. International Standing • Significant given growing influence and economic interaction • Security council • Limited use of veto eg Iran / Iraq • Cancelled 10 billion debt - Africa • Olympic games and World Fair • Multilateral forums • APEC / ARF / NPT / CBTB / Peace keeping / WTO

  14. Competing Interests • Sudan – oil • Tibet / Xianjing / Taiwan • Milk / paint / environment / labour

  15. Harmonious Society • Domestic issues and International good standing • Problems • Increased social tensions – growth / expectations / separatism • Social security - .8 vs .41 • Land seizure • Corruption • Environment

  16. Foreign Policy • 5 Principles of Peaceful Coexistence • Respect sovereignty / territory • Mutual non aggression • Mutual benefit • Peaceful coexistence • Non interference • New Security Concept – 1998 • Dialogue/agreements/Russia/regional diplomacy

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