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Probability

Probability. Finding a probability using the law of large numbers. Day Light % Red Lights Probability 1 Red (1/1) 100 1.0 2 Green (1/2) 50 0.5

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Probability

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  1. Probability Finding a probability using the law of large numbers.

  2. Day Light % Red Lights Probability 1 Red (1/1) 100 1.0 2 Green (1/2) 50 0.5 3 Red (2/3) 66.7 0.667 4 Red (3/4) 75 0.75 5 Green (3/5) 60 0.6 6 Green (3/6) 50 0.5 Observational Probability Determining the probability by what you see happens: As you increase the number of trials the Observational Probability gets closer to the actual probability.

  3. 100 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 Percent of Red 20 10 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 6 # of Outcomes

  4. 100 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 Percent of Red 20 10 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 6 # of Outcomes The graph, over time, settles down to 35% or we say P(red) = 0.35 Called “Law of Large Numbers”

  5. Pass the Pigs Outcomes: a) What are the possible outcomes for your piglet? Left Sider: Right Sider: Razorback: Trotter: Snouter:

  6. Pass the Pigs P(Outcomes): b) Toss your piglet 40 times, record how many times it lands in each position. Left Sider: Right Sider: Razorback: Trotter: Snouter: 40 40 40 40 40

  7. Pass the Pigs P(Outcomes from team): d) Combine your tosses with your teams. Left Sider: Right Sider: Razorback: Trotter: Snouter: Add up Total #

  8. Pass the Pigs P(Outcomes from Class): f) Combine your team tosses with the class. Left Sider: Right Sider: Razorback: Trotter: Snouter: Add up Total #

  9. Pass the Pigs If we created a spinner with the same probabilities, as the outcomes of tossing the piglets, what would it look like? A B Or more like Pg 3.1 on calculator

  10. Pass the Pigs h) Find P(Left or Right sider): • i) Find P(razor back or trotter): • j) Find P(razor back or left sider) • k) Find P(razor back or right sider or snouter) • l) Find P(not a left) Pg 3.2 for h,i,j Pg 3.3 for k,l

  11. Dice Project This project is worth 60 points and will be counted as a test. There will be no late dice projects accepted. Due date is Tuesday April 30A-day or May 1st B-day 2013 Your dice will be graded on the following: 1) Creativity (15 points): 2) Appearance (15 points): 3) Ease of use (10 points): {You will be tossing yours at least 40 times} 4) Test of fairness (20 points)? See examples of unique dice on next slide

  12. Unique Dice

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