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Pertemuan 20 Informasi Relevan Dalam Manajemen Resiko

Pertemuan 20 Informasi Relevan Dalam Manajemen Resiko

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Pertemuan 20 Informasi Relevan Dalam Manajemen Resiko

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  1. Pertemuan 20Informasi Relevan Dalam Manajemen Resiko Matakuliah : J0274/Akuntansi Manajemen Tahun : 2005 Versi : 01/00

  2. Learning Outcomes Pada akhir pertemuan ini, diharapkan mahasiswa akan mampu : • Memahami pentingnya para pengambil keputusan untuk berani menghadapi ketidak pastian

  3. Outline Materi • Perubahan lingkungan bisnis dan ekonomi • Pengambilan keputusan dan balas jasa • Pengertian ketidakpastian • Alternatif keputusan dalam ketidakpastian • Menjadi creative thinker

  4. The Changing Business Environment

  5. Decision Making Identifying alternative courses of action. Selecting an appropriate alternative.

  6. Rewards and Sacrifices In general, the aim of all decisions is to obtain some type of reward, either economic or personal. Reward requires sacrifice.

  7. Opportunity Cost It is the reward we give up because we choose a particular alternative instead of another. Examining the relationship between rewards and sacrifices is known as cost/benefit analysis.

  8. Types of Rewards Extrinsic Intrinsic

  9. Coping with Uncertaintyand Risk Uncertainty in any given decision situation increases the chances of making the wrong choice. The higher the degree of uncertainty, the greater the risk.

  10. Routine and Non-routine Decisions Routine decisions Situation recurs Non-routine decisions Unfamiliar circumstances

  11. Uncertainty One common technique for addressing the impact of uncertainty issensitivity analysis -a way to determine what would happen in a decision analysis if a key prediction or assumption proved to be wrong.

  12. Decision Making Under Uncertainty • Maximax • Maximin • Equally likely (Laplace) • Criterion of Realism • Minimax

  13. Risk and Decision Making Is the decision maker a Risk Seeker or Risk Adverse?

  14. Attributes of 21st Century accountants 21st Century Accountants Communication Skills Interpersonal Skills Intellectual Skills

  15. Creative Thinkers Creative Thinking • Creative thinking is the process of actively generating new ideas to discover solutions to a problem. Inquisitive Mind (questioning attitude) Fluency (number of ideas generated for a solution) Flexibility (broad array of ideas for solving a problem)

  16. Brainstorming.. generating plenty of “harebrained” as well as reasonably possible ideas Creative Thinking Strategies Piggybacking… generating new ideas from other ideas Drawing analogies…connecting facts, ideas, or experiences that are normally considered separate

  17. Questions for CreativeThinkers to Ask • What is it about this idea that stimulates my curiosity? • Can I come up with more ideas? • Can I come up with a great variety of ideas? • Do I develop ideas independently and not eliminate them because of social influences? • Do I consider several alternatives before acting?

  18. Critical Thinkers Have Grit! Critical Thinking • Critical thinking is the process that evaluates the ideas generated by creative thinking. Independent (in process of evaluating ideas) Tolerate Ambiguity/Willingly Defer Judgment (to collect information and evaluate solutions) Objectivity (being unbiased in the evaluation process; valuing truth)

  19. Questions for CriticalThinkers to Ask • If an issue is controversial, do I accept my first reaction or do I debate the issue in my head first? • Do I tend to reject new evidence that contradicts my current opinion on the subject, or do I evaluate the new evidence and then decide whether to accept it or reject it?

  20. Questions for CriticalThinkers to Ask • When I am trying to solve a problem, do I usually accept the first solution that “works” or do I generate multiple solutions and then choose the best one? • When others disagree with me, do I usually listen to them with an open mind and critically evaluate their ideas, or do I try or defend my own ideas?

  21. LOGIC Critical Thinking and Logic • Critical thinkers use a variety of skills in the problem-solving process. Among these skills is the ability to use logic. Inductive logicReasoning that moves from a specific conclusion to a general statement. Reasoning that moves from a general statement to a specific conclusion.Deductive logic