OBSERVATIONS Christopher W. Fairall 1 and James Cummings

1. Joint GODAE OceanView - WGNE coupled prediction for the atmosphere-wave-sea-ice-ocean: Status, needs and challenges OBSERVATIONS Christopher W. Fairall 1 and James Cummings 1 NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory/Physical Science Division, Boulder, Colorado, USA 2Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA, USA Background Whitepaper Examples Key Challenges Key Science Questions Joint GODAE OceanView - WGNE coupled prediction

2. Background on Coupled Modeling • Importance of coupling increases with time scale • Examples • Hurricanes • Madden-Julian Oscillation • Sea ice • Upwelling • Move to coupled modeling will require complete re-evaluation of the observing system • New methods with current observations • New observing technologies • Need to develop infrastructure to plan this Joint GODAE OceanView - WGNE coupled prediction

3. Observations WhitepaperA Major Outcome of the Workshop Joint GODAE OceanView - WGNE workshop on Short- to Medium-range coupled prediction for the atmosphere-wave-sea-ice-ocean: Status, needs and challenges OBSERVATIONS – Whitepaper 14 March 2013 C.W. Fairall (NOAA/ESRL chris.fairall@noaa.gov ) James Cummings (NRL james.cummings@nrlmry.navy.mil ) Alexander V Babanin (SUT, ababanin@swin.edu.au) Hans Bonekamp (RSP hans.bonekamp@eumetsat.int) Sergey Gulev (Shirshov Inst. Oce. gul@sail.msk.ru) Dean Roemmich (SIO droemmich@ucsd.edu) Dan Rudnick (SIO drudnick@ucsd.edu) Gregory C. Smith (MRD/EC gregory.smith@ec.gc.ca) Bob Weller (WHOI rweller@whoi.edu) Gary Wick (NOAA/ESRL gary.a.wick@noaa.gov) Chris Merchant (U. Edinburgh c.merchant@ed.ac.uk Luca Centurioni (SIO lcenturioni@ucsd.edu) Susanne Lehner (DLR Susanne.Lehner@dlr.de) AndreyPleskachevsky (DLR Andrey.Pleskachevsky@dlr.de) Johannes Gemmrich (UVic Gemmrich@uvic.ca) • Whitepaper Draft available • Currently crude and in need of input, … • Welcoming additional authors • Mark up in track changes or just send text/figures/etc Joint GODAE OceanView - WGNE coupled prediction

4. Navy GOFS Ocean Data Flow Raw Obs Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA) Automated QC w/condition flags SST: NOAA (GAC, LAC), METOP (GAC, LAC), GOES, MSG, MTSAT-2, VIIRS, Ship Buoy Profile Temp/Salt: XBT, CTD, Argo Floats, Fixed/Drifting Buoy, Ocean Gliders Altimeter SSH: Jason-1&2, CryoSat2 Sea Ice: SSM/I, SSMIS Velocity: HF Radar, ADCP, Gliders, Surface Drifters Ocean Data QC 3DVAR – multivariate analysis of temperature, salinity, u,v velocity Innovations 3DVAR Increments Ocean/Wave Model Adaptive Sampling Data Impacts Forecast Fields Prediction Errors First Guess HYCOM, NCOM, WW3 Sensors NCODA: QC + 3DVAR

5. Operational Oceanography: In Situ Data Coverage Argo XBT TESAC Fixed Buoy Drifting Buoy Animal Sensors September – November 2012

6. Evaluating Observation Impacts Histogram plots of impact of temperature data in global HYCOM Atlantic basin domain for October through November, 2012 XBT: expendable bathythermographs; Argo: Argo profiling floats; Fixed: fixed buoys; Drift: drifting buoys with thermistor chains; TESAC: CTD, ocean gliders; MODAS: synthetic temperature profiles from altimeter SSH; Animal: animal borne sensors; SST: satellite and in situ sea surface temperature. Histogram plot of impact of different satellite SST observing systems in global HYCOM Atlantic basin domain for October through November, 2012. Joint GODAE OceanView - WGNE coupled prediction

7. Some Holes in Even the Best Systems:Hurricane Areas Joint GODAE OceanView - WGNE coupled prediction

8. Geographical Distribution of Important Process Observations: Surface Radiative FLux Comparison of mean downward solar radiation satellite products with buoy observations for the last 20 years as a function of latitude: upper panel, mean difference; lower panel, number of buoy sites. Joint GODAE OceanView - WGNE coupled prediction

9. New Technologies for Verification Joint GODAE OceanView - WGNE coupled prediction

10. Joint GODAE OceanView - WGNE coupled prediction

11. ‘Planes, Trains, and Automobiles’ - A Diversity of Experimental Approaches Joint GODAE OceanView - WGNE coupled prediction

12. W-band antenna Motion Stabilized Doppler Cloud Radar *Pitch/Roll stabilization maintains antenna level *Measured ship vertical motion is subtracted from Doppler Mean Motions Before and After Vertical motion Correction

13. Atmospheric Boundary Layer Turbulent Mixing Parameterizations Local K-theory closure for flux Non-Local closure (convective) Updraft fraction Mass flux Mean profile of velocity binned mass-flux at 1200 m (top), 900 m, 600 m and 300 m (bottom) from VOCALS. The long tail on the downdraft side of the distribution is consistent with cloudtop radiative cooling and negative skewness. Cloud top is at 1400 m and cloud base is at 950 m. Joint GODAE OceanView - WGNE coupled prediction

14. Key Challenges • Sea Ice • Stable boundary layer • Mesoscale and smaller • Cloud microphysics (radiation) • Near surface ocean currents • Ocean vertical motions • Diurnal cycle • Surface roughness • Complex wave properties Joint GODAE OceanView - WGNE coupled prediction

15. Key Science Questions • What impacts/benefits are found from variable data densities? Does of the impact of an observing system saturate at some level? • What should be the focus of improvements for observations of the ocean and atmosphere PBL in support of coupled assimilation and modeling? • What observations are particularly important for different forecast ranges? • What do experiments on observing system design and targeted observing tell us about the coupled problem? • What impacts/benefits could be expected by sustained components of the ocean-atmosphere-ice-wave observing systems? • Do observation benefits change from the global to the mesoscale, from the tropics to the mid-latitudes? Joint GODAE OceanView - WGNE coupled prediction

16. Break Out Topics • Observing system design – OSSE/OSE • Using satellite information • Rethinking how to use observations to improve models/parameterizations • Oceans: vertical motion? And/or diurnal cycle Joint GODAE OceanView - WGNE coupled prediction