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Problem Solving / Decision Making

Problem Solving / Decision Making. Kepner-Tregoe The New Rational Manager Chapter 6. Chapter 6 Contents. Future Events and Their Consequences The Basic Activities A Different Kind of Process When to Use Problem (Opportunity) Analysis. The Future.

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Problem Solving / Decision Making

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  1. Problem Solving /Decision Making Kepner-Tregoe The New Rational Manager Chapter 6

  2. Chapter 6 Contents • Future Events and Their Consequences • The Basic Activities • A Different Kind of Process • When to Use Problem (Opportunity) Analysis

  3. The Future • Looking into the future helps to identify and assess threats and opportunities. • The first step in a Potential Problem (Opportunity) Analysis is to feel concern about the future of some project, situation, or event. • Only when managers share a common method can this activity be effective.

  4. Potential Problem (Opportunity) Analysis • “PP(O)A is the pattern of thinking that enables us to change and improve the future; rather than allow the future to arrive entirely on its own terms.” • PP(O)A is a voluntary act of prudence • PP(O)A is used less often and less thoroughly than the other Rational Processes

  5. Potential Problem (Opportunity) Analysis • “Success and survival depend on being able to anticipate change, to avoid being swallowed up by its negative effects, and to seize the benefits it offers.” • PP(O)A is a systematic process for uncovering and dealing with potential problems and opportunities that are reasonably likely to occur

  6. PP(O)A Basic Questions • Potential Problems • Focus on undesirable deviations • What could go wrong? • What can we do about it now? • Potential Opportunities • Focus on desirable deviations • What could go better than expected? • What can we do now to make the most of it?

  7. Problems vs Opportunities • Potential Problem Analysis and Potential Opportunity Analysis may be conducted on the same action. • Both are future oriented • Potential Problem Analysis and Potential Opportunity Analysis should be done separately.

  8. PP(O)A Techniques • State the action • List Potential Problems (Opportunities) • Consider causes for the Potential Problems (Opportunities) • Take actions to address the causes • Prepare actions to reduce the effects • Set triggers for contingent actions

  9. PP(O)A vs Adverse Consequences in DA • Potential Adverse Consequences of alternatives is an identification activity to allow us to arrive at a balanced choice among alternatives under risk. • PP(O)A is action plan; we are going to do something • PP(O)A might naturally be done after DA on the adverse consequences of the best balanced choice.

  10. Case Study: Planning an Inauguration • Review the Inauguration case statement, W 145-146, B 144 • In a complex action, there are tremendous amounts of detail. • Nobody can deal with every possible problem • We must be priority oriented not detail oriented

  11. PP(O)A List of Problems • Bad weather disruptions • Program VIPs might not attend • Facilities may be inadequate • Guests might not know where to go or what to do • The site could be untidy

  12. Problems: What to Look For • Anything that has never been done before • Anything with overlapping responsibility • Tight deadlines • Activities carried out at a long distance

  13. Consider Causes • Weather: heavy afternoon thunderstorms • VIP no-shows: competing priorities and forgotten schedules • Facilities: parking, restrooms, fountains, seating, trash • ETC….

  14. Take Actions to Address Causes • Weather: plan for morning • VIP no-shows: personal contacts, 2 weeks, 1 week, and 2 days before event • Facilities: temporary parking areas, portable restrooms, temporary fountains, extra seating, signs, and guides

  15. Take Actions to Reduce Likely Effects • Canvas roof over speaker platform • Back up speakers • Back-up hotel and vehicle reservations • Boy scout troop as a last minute clean up crew

  16. Set Triggers for Contingent Actions • A mechanism to monitor the potential problem and activate the contingent action at the correct time.

  17. The Case Results • Review the case study results, W 152-153, B 149-150 • The purpose of PP(O)A is not to guarantee error-free plans, projects, and events. The purpose is to prevent plans, projects, and events which are long remembered by: “Why didn’t somebody think of that?”

  18. Another Example • Full process which leads to the recognition of a new alternative • Closing Sayers Point Mill

  19. When To Use PP(O)A • Use Problem Analysis whenever experience and intuition tell you something could go wrong and the cost of its going wrong could be great. • Use Opportunity Analysis when you are confident of success but experience and intuition tell you there could be value exceeding expectations

  20. Other Cases • The Likely Emergency • A Crises Averted • Opening the Quick Service Aircraft Facility • Searching for Alaskan Oil

  21. Chapter Summary • Potential Problem Analysis is not simply a search for trouble • It is a constructive method for identifying ways to avoid and lessen trouble that is likely to occur • Potential Opportunity analysis is not simply a search for improvement • It is a deliberate search for ways to find additional value and benefit

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