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BUILD BRIGHT UNIVERSITY 11.1 PLAN RISK MANAGEMENT

BUILD BRIGHT UNIVERSITY 11.1 PLAN RISK MANAGEMENT. MSc. Veyanet Seng. Plan Risk Management . ផែនការគឺជាការ កំណត់គោលដៅ និងវិធីសាស្រ្តនៃគោលដៅ ដើម្បីអោយប្រតិបត្តិតាមគន្លងដែលបានកំណត់ សំរេចជោគជ័យនៅទីបញ្ចប់។

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BUILD BRIGHT UNIVERSITY 11.1 PLAN RISK MANAGEMENT

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  1. BUILD BRIGHT UNIVERSITY11.1 PLAN RISK MANAGEMENT MSc. Veyanet Seng

  2. Plan Risk Management • ផែនការគឺជាការកំណត់គោលដៅ និងវិធីសាស្រ្តនៃគោលដៅ ដើម្បីអោយប្រតិបត្តិតាមគន្លងដែលបានកំណត់សំរេចជោគជ័យនៅទីបញ្ចប់។ • ការកំណត់គោលដៅត្រូវតែមានភាពជាក់លាក់ពិតប្រាកដផ្អែកលើបទដ្ឋានត្រឹមត្រូវហើយមានទំនាក់ទំនងច្បាស់លាស់ពីផ្នែកមួយទៅផ្នែកមួយទៀត ឬពីដំណាក់កាលមួយទៅដំណាក់កាលមួយទៀត។ ផែនការមានទំរង់ជា ផ្លូវការ និងមិនផ្លូវការ

  3. Decide how to approach and plan the risk management activities for the project. • Describe how risk • Processes will be • Structured and performed

  4. គោលបំណងរួមនៃការគ្រប់គ្រងហានិភ័យគោលបំណងរួមនៃការគ្រប់គ្រងហានិភ័យ • គឺសំដៅទៅលើ​ការធានាអោយមាន​ការសំរេចចិត្តមួយដ៏ត្រឹមត្រូវក្នុងការធ្វើអ្វីមួយអោយស្របទៅតាមពេលវេលា​ជាក់​លាក់ និងដែល​មាន​ប្រភពច្បាស់លាស់នៃភាពមិនត្រឹមត្រូវ ដែលអាចមានឥទ្ធិពលមកលើភាព​ជោគជ័យ​នៃគំរោង​បាន។

  5. តាមរយៈទ្រឹស្ដីនៃការគ្រប់គ្រងគំរោង ការគ្រប់គ្រងហានិភ័យដើម្បីស្វែងរក៖ • អត្តសញ្ញាណ • ការពារ ទប់ទល់ • បង្រ្កាប • កាត់បន្ថយចំនុចអវិជ្ជមាន និង • បង្កើនឱកាសនានាអោយខ្ពស់បំផុត និងអោយ​ចេញជាលទ្ធផលវិជ្ជមាន នៅក្នុងន័យជាប្រយោជន៍ដល់គំរោងនិងអ្នកពាក់ព័ន្ធជាច្រើនទៀត។

  6. ការគ្រប់គ្រងនេះ គឺជាការគ្រប់គ្រងជាប្រព័ន្ធ ដែលអាចផ្ដល់លទ្ធភាពក្នុងការគេចចេញ ត្រួតត្រា កាត់បន្ថយ ឬ កំចាត់ចោល តាមរយៈនៃតក្កនុលោម ភាពវាងវៃ និងយុទ្ធសាស្រ្តឯកសារ។

  7. III. Project Risk Management Process

  8. Processes required to effectively identify, analyze, respond and control project risks. Processes: • 11.1 Plan Risk Management – Planning • 11.2 Identify Risks – Planning • 11.3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis – Planning • 11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis – Planning • 11.5 Plan Risk Responses – Planning • 11.6 Monitor and Control Risks – Monitoring and Control

  9. 11.1 Plan Risk ManagementInputs – Tools & Techniques - outputs

  10. Inputs: 1. Project Scope • ការគ្រប់គ្រងគំរោង៖ • Scope: Project size, goals, requirements • Resources: People, equipment, material • Time: Task durations, dependencies, critical path • Money: Costs, contingencies, profit • The project scope: គឺជានិយមន័យពីអ្វីដែលគំរោងបានគិតស្មានពី ប្រតិបត្តិការ និង ថវិកា (នៃពេលវេលា និង លុយ) ដែលត្រូវបានបង្កើតឡើងដើម្បីសំរេចគោលបំណងអោយទទួលបានជោគជ័យ។

  11. Inputs​ • Scope Creep is the piling up of small changes that by themselves are manageable, but in aggregate are significant. • Scope refers to all the work involved in creating the products of the project and the processes used to create them. It defines what is or is not to be done. • The project team and stakeholders must have the same understanding of what products will be produced as a result of a project and how they’ll be produced.

  12. Scope Statement: This is the first place you’ll start looking when identifying risks and should be considered when determining the process you’ll use to evaluate risks. • Project Scope:ការងារដែលចាំបាច់ ក្នុងប្រតិបត្តិការបញ្ជូន ផលិតផល សេវាកម្ម និងលទ្ធផលជាមួយនឹងមុខងារនិងទ្រង់ទ្រាយជាក់លាក់។ ជាទំរង់និងតួនាទីដែលចាំបាច់ក្នុងការគាំទ្រដល់ដំណោះស្រាយ។ • Product Scope:ជាទំរង់​និងមុខងារផ្សេងៗ ដែលបង្ហាញពីចរិកលក្ខណៈរបស់ ផលិតផល សេវាកម្ម និងលទ្ធផល

  13. You can not effectively manage the resources, time and money in a project unless you actively manage the project scope. • When you have the project scope clearly identified and associated to the timeline and budget, you can begin to manage the project resources. These include the people, equipment, and material needed to complete the project. • Corrective actions will require a project change request and must be approved by the Project Sponsor before it can become within the scope of the project.

  14. Inputs: 2. Cost Management Plan • The Cost Management Plan clearly defines how the costs on a project will be managed throughout the project’s lifecycle. • There are following processes which are part of Project Cost Management. • Estimate Costs • Determine Budget • Measure Costs • Report Costs • �Control Costs�

  15. The Cost Management Plan: • Identifies who is responsible for managing costs • Identifies who has the authority to approve changes to the project or its budget • How cost performance is quantitatively measured and reported upon • Report formats, frequency and to whom they are presented

  16. ការទទួលខុសត្រូវនៃអ្នកគ្រប់គ្រងចំពោះថ្លៃការទទួលខុសត្រូវនៃអ្នកគ្រប់គ្រងចំពោះថ្លៃ • ​ អ្នកគ្រប់គ្រង ត្រុវបង្ហាញ និងពិនិត្យឡើងវិញនូវថ្លៃនៃគំរោងសំរាប់ខែបន្ទាប់។ • Performance will be measured using earned value.

  17. គណនាថ្លៃចំណាយសរុបក្រោយការព្យាករណ៍គណនាថ្លៃចំណាយសរុបក្រោយការព្យាករណ៍ • Estimate At Completion (EAC) refers to the estimated total cost of the project at completion. • BAC refers to Budget at Completion. It is related to EAC. EAC > BAC : ការចំណាយលើសផែនការថវិកា EAC = BAC​ : ការចំណាយស្របតាមផែនការថវិកា EAC < BAC : ការចំណាយតិចជាងផែនការថវិកា

  18. Example • Your project has a budget of $10,000 and is expect to last for 1 year, with the work and budget spread evenly across all months. Right now CPI is 0.8. What is Estimate at Completion (EAC) in this case? 1.$12,5002.$10,0003.2.54.3.0

  19. Independent estimateatcompletion (IEAC) • The IEAC is a metric to project total cost using the performance to date to project overall performance. This can be compared to the EAC, which is the manager's projection.

  20. គណនាថ្លៃចំណាយដែលត្រូវបំពេញគណនាថ្លៃចំណាយដែលត្រូវបំពេញ • ETC refers to Estimate to Completion. It is defined as ETC = EAC – AC = 360,000-120,000=240,000(៨ខែទៀត) ETC ទឹកប្រាប់ត្រូវប្រើនៅខែបន្ទាប់(៨ខែទៀត)

  21. សន្ទស្សន៍ថ្លៃដើម • CPI refers to Cost Performance Index. It is defined as CPI = EV/AC If, CPI < 1, this means that the project is over budget. If, CPI = 1, this means that the project is perfectly on budget. If, CPI > 1, this means that the project is under budget.

  22. To-complete performance index (TCPI) • The TCPI provides a projection of the anticipated performance required to achieve either the BAC or the EAC. TCPI indicates the future required cost efficiency needed to achieve a target BAC (Budget At Complete) or EAC (Estimate At Complete). Any significant difference between CPI, the cost performance to date, and the TCPI, the cost performance needed to meet the BAC or the EAC, should be accounted for by management in their forecast of the final cost. ប្រសិទ្ធភាពថ្លៃដើម​​ TCPIBAC=(240,000-80,000)/(240,000-120,000)=1.33 ​​​​ លើសផែនការ

  23. To-complete performance index (TCPI) • For the TCPI based on BAC (describing the performance required to meet the original BAC budgeted total): • or for the TCPI based on EAC (describing the performance required to meet a new, revised budget total EAC):

  24. Earned Value (EV) is the physical work completed to date and the authorized budget for that. It is also referred as BCWP (Budgeted Cost of Work Performed). CV = EV – AC ឬ TC = CV + FC Earn Value = Total Cost x Percentage of work actually completed • If CV > 0, the project is earning more value than planned thus it’s under budget. • If CV = 0, then the project is perfectly on budget. • If CV < 0, the project is earning less value than planned thus it’s over budget

  25. Example 1: The Cost Variance • Your project has a budget of $240,000BAC and is expect to last for 1 year, with the work and budget spread evenly across all months. The project is now in the fourth month, the work is on schedule, but you have already spent $120,000 AC of the project budget. What is your COST Variance in this case? • CV = EV – AC but EV=(BAC*4)/12=(240,000*4)/12=80,000 CV=80,000-120,000=-40,000 CPI=EV/BAC= 80,000/120,000=0.66 EAC=240,000/0.66=360,000​ (តម្លៃប្រហែល)

  26. គណនាថ្លៃចំណាយពិត • Actual Cost (AC) is the actual amount of money spent so far. It is also referred as ACWP (Actual Cost of Work Performed). AC = EV – CV • AC: Actual Cost (ថ្លៃចំណាយពិត) • CV: Cost Variance (ថ្លៃចំណាយប្រែប្រួល) • FC: Fixed Cost (ថ្លៃចំណាយថេរ)

  27. គណនាថ្លៃដែលត្រូវបំពេញប្រែប្រួលគណនាថ្លៃដែលត្រូវបំពេញប្រែប្រួល • VAC refers to Variance At Completion. It is defined as VAC = BAC – EAC = 240,000-360,000=-120,000ថវិការខ្វះ • If, VAC = 0, ជាតំលៃដែលស្របតាមផែនការថវិកា • If VAC < 0 ជាតំលៃដែលប្រើប្រាស់លើសផែនការថវិកា • If VAC > 0 ជាតំលៃដែលប្រើប្រាស់តិចជាងផែនការថវិកា

  28. Example 2: Variance at Completion (VAC) • Your project has a budget of $10,000 and is expect to last for 1 year, with the work and budget spread evenly across all months. Right now CPI is 0.8. What is Variance at Completion in this case? • 1.-$2,500ដោយ​ EAC=BAC/CPI2.$10,000 10,00/0.8=12,5003.$12,500នាំអោយVAC=10,000-12,500=-2,5004.$12,000

  29. REPORTS OF CPIសន្ទស្សន៏ថ្លៃដើម • If the Cost Performance Index has a variance of between 0.1 and 0.2 the Project Manager must report the reason for the exception. • If the CPI has a variance of greater than 0.2the Project Manager must report the reason for the exception and provide management a detailed corrective plan to bring the projects performance back to acceptable levels.

  30. Inputs: 3. Schedule Management Plan • How schedule contingencies will be reported and assessed. • Planned Value (PV) refers to what the project should be worth at this point in the schedule. It is also referred as BCWS (Budgeted Cost of Work Scheduled).

  31. SV refers to Schedule Variance. It is defined as SV = EV - PV • If,, SV = 0, then the project is perfectly on schedule. • If, SV > 0, the project is earning more value than planned thus it’s ahead of schedule. • If, SV < 0, the project is earning less value than planned thus it’s behind schedule or cost. Note: do more, get more

  32. Example 3: Schedule Variance • You are a project manager of a project. Till today you have actually completed $34,000(EV) of work, but based on the cost plan it should be $50,000(PV). What is percentage Schedule Variance (SV) in this case? 1.-32% SV% =(EV-PV)/PV2.-16% =(34,000-50,000)/50,0003.32% =-32%4.10%

  33. SPI: measures the progress achieved against that which was planned. • SPI: Schedule Performance Index. It is defined as សន្ទស្សSPI = EV/PV = 34,000/50,000 =0.68 • If, EV = PV the value of the SPI is 1. • If EV < PV the value is less than 1, which means the project is behind scheduleធ្វើមិនបានរឺមិនដល់ខ្ទង់ដែលគ្រងទុក. • If EV > PV the value of the SPI is greater than 1, which means the project is ahead of schedule. A well performing project should have its SPI as close to 1 as possible, or maybe even a little under 1.

  34. Reports of SPI • If the Schedule Performance has a variance of between 0.1 and 0.2 the Project Manager must report the reason for the exception. • If the SPI has a variance of greater than 0.2the Project Manager must report the reason for the exception and provide management a detailed corrective plan to bring the projects performance back to acceptable levels.

  35. Reporting Format • Reporting for cost management: • included in the monthly project status report. • Labeled “Cost Management” • contain the Earned Value Metrics identified in the previous section. • All cost variances outside of the thresholds identified • Report any corrective actions • project cost overruns will be identified and tracked in this report.

  36. Project Budget • The budget for this project is detailed below. Costs for this project are presented in various categories... • Fixed Costs: $xxx,xxx.xx • Material Costs $xxx,xxx.xx • Contractor Costs $xxx,xxx.xx • Total Project Cost $xxx,xxx.xx • Management Reserve $x,xxx.xx

  37. Example • You are a project manager of a construction company. You want to manage the variance between what was planned and what actually occurred. Which of the following methodology you should use? 1.Earned Value Management (EVM)√2.Earned Value (EV)3.Planned Value4.Accounting​

  38. ឯកសារយោង • AS/NZS 4360. Risk Management. Standards Australia, Sydney, NSW, 1997. • Bob Xourafas, P. Eng, Project Management Fundamentals, Proprietary, 2009. • www.ProjectManagementDocs.com

  39. សូមអរគុណសំរាប់ការយកចិត្តទុកដាក់សូមអរគុណសំរាប់ការយកចិត្តទុកដាក់

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