RCI Inventory & Baseline for BFM Work Group

1. RCI Inventory & Baseline for BFM Work Group The Center for Clean Air Policy January 23, 2004

2. All Sector Baseline & Target 42% 24% CCAP

3. Inventory & Baseline • Inventory • Historical Emissions 1990-2000 • Developed by NESCAUM • Baseline • Forecasted Emissions from 2001-2020 • Developed by CCAP CCAP

4. All Sector Baseline CCAP

5. Residential, Comm’l & Industrial 49% 30% Note: Target line assumes targets of 1990 sector levels by 2010, 10% below 1990 in 2020 CCAP

6. Residential, Comm’l, Industrial CCAP

7. BFM:Sources of GHG Emissions • GHG Emissions included in the RCI Sectors • CO2, CH4, N20 from direct fuel consumption • Methane from oil & natural gas systems • CO2, Nitrous Oxide, High global warming potential (GWP) gases from industrial processes • High GWP gases from ozone depleting substances (ODS) substitutes • GHG Emissions included in the electricity sector • CO2, CH4, N2O from fuel consumption used to generate electricity CCAP

8. Electricity Baseline 44% 33% Note: Target line assumes targets of 1990 sector levels by 2010, 10% below 1990 in 2020 CCAP

9. BFM: Sources of Data • Sources for Inventory (1990-2000) • Energy Information Agency (EIA) State Energy Consumption Reports • Technical Notes on EIA Data: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/states/_price_multistate.html#pr_technotes • EIA’s Electric Power Annual • EPA GHG Inventory Tool • Sources for Baseline Forecast (2001-2020) • EIA Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2003 • AEO 2003140 page assumptions document: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/assumption/pdf/0554(2003).pdf CCAP

10. BFM: Methodology • CO2 Emissions from Fuel Consumption • Inventory: EIA State Data Consumption Reports for fuel use estimates, apply EPA emission factors • Baseline: Grow fuel use by fuel type and sector based on EIA’s AEO2003 report by applying regional growth rate, apply EPA emission factors Average Fuel Consumption Growth Rate, AEO 2003 CCAP

11. BFM: Methodology, Cont’d • Methane Emissions from Natural Gas and Oil Systems • Inventory: EPA GHG Inventory Tool for estimates • Baseline: Apply historical growth in emissions from 1990-2000 (6.9%) to later periods. • 1.2% of emissions from RCI sector in 2010, 1.9% in 2020 • Other Emissions from Industrial Process and ODS Substitutes • Inventory: EPA GHG Inventory Tool for estimates • Baseline: Apply historical growth in emissions from 1990-2000 (7.2%) to later periods. • 13.5% of emissions from RCI sector in 2010, 21.5% in 2020 CCAP

12. BFM: Key Baseline Assumptions • GHG emissions from direct fossil fuel consumption forecasted using regional fuel growth rates from Annual Energy Outlook • Based on National Emissions Modeling System (NEMS) • GHG Emissions from industrial processes and ODS substitutes grow at the same historical rate (1990 to 2000) • Black Carbon not included CCAP

13. BFM: Revisions to 12/17 Version • CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuel Adjusted • Fossil fuel use from Combined Heat and Power (CHP) units subtracted from Industrial and Commercial sectors to avoid double counting • Fuel use accounted for in electricity sector • Source for Revisions • EIA’s Electric Power Annual CCAP

14. BFM: Further Potential Adjustments • Emissions from industrial process gases • Update Inventory based on state-specific data • Update baseline based on changes to inventory • Emissions from these sources are a growing percentage of total emissions (8.0% in 2000, 21.5% in 2020) • Review estimate of methane emissions in 2000and revise as necessary • Include black carbon estimates • Other recommended changes from the BFM WG CCAP

15. Black Carbon • Could have nearly as much impact on global warming as carbon dioxide • BC particles have relatively short atmospheric lifetimes • Significant new research will be needed before the role of BC emissions can be reliably assessed • Formed by the incomplete combustion from diesel engines, cooking fires and coal burning • Diesel-powered trucks and buses are primary sources of airborne soot in the United States. CCAP