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Polar Prediction Project (PPP) Update

Learn about the Polar Prediction Project's efforts to enhance weather and environmental predictions in polar regions through global collaborations and cutting-edge research. Discover key goals, research plans, and selected activities for improved prediction accuracy.

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Polar Prediction Project (PPP) Update

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  1. Polar Prediction Project (PPP) Update • In 2001, the World Meteorological Congress decided to embark on a decadal endeavour – the development of a Global Integrated • Polar Prediction System (GIPPS). • Two closely related initiatives: • WWRP PPP to “Promote cooperative international research • enabling development of improved weather and environmental prediction services for the polar regions, on time scales from • hours to seasonal.” • WCRP Polar Climate Predictability Initiative (PCPI) which • “contributes to the development of GIPPS on time scales of a • season or beyond”. • Details, plans available from http://polarprediction.net

  2. PPP Overview • Steering Group launched PPP in early 2012 • Implementation plan adopted in January 2013 • Science plan produced providing scientific basis for activities. • Major activity: Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP: 2017-2019) • International Coordination Office at Wegener Institute, Bremerhaven.

  3. PPP: Key Goals • Improve understanding of the benefits of using existing prediction information • and services in polar regions…. • Improve verification of polar weather and environmental predictions… • Optimize the polar observing system to provide good coverage of high-quality • observations of all components of the polar climate system in a cost effective manner. • Develop uncoupled and coupled model systems with a realistic representation of • key physical, dynamical, chemical and hydrological processes in the polar regions. • Develop improved DA systems that account for challenges in the polar regions such • as sparseness of observational data, steep orography, model error… • Develop ensemble prediction systems with a realistic representation of model and • initial condition uncertainty in the polar regions. • Improve understanding of the origins and limits of predictability in the polar regions…

  4. PPP Research Plan Areas Potential MWFR activities in each FSR area…

  5. PPP FSR Selected Activities • Observations: New obs, adjoint sensitivies, OSSEs. • Modelling: Explore polar processes (e.g. stable PBL, aerosol, cloud microphysics, river flows, lakes, sea-ice, permafrost), grey zone, • stochastic parametrization, etc). • DA: Evaluate analysis/reanalysis datasets, develop sea-ice retrievals, flow-dependent error covariances, coupled O-A-I-L • Ensemble forecasting: Assess global/regional(?) polar EPS, improve uncertainty in IC/model, explore SP vs multi-model EPS, …

  6. YOPP

  7. YOPP

  8. YOPP: Next stages PPP Steering Group Meeting: 21-23rd August

  9. PPP Comments • Significant, well-coordinated effort with ambitious (achievable?) plans. • Focus to date is clearly on global • coupled NWP models, rather than • high-resolution NWP. • Limited MWFR member activity – • should (can?) MWFR be more • active promoting mesoscale PPP? • YOPP: MWFR not involved as yet, Should we get involved next week • at WWOSC PPP meeting?

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