An International Polar Prediction Project

1. An International Polar Prediction Project Chair: Gilbert Brunet Rapporteur: Barry Goodison

3. Proposed Tasks • Initial focus on Nowcasting (minutes to a few hours), Mesoscale Weather Forecasting (a few hours to 48 hours) and medium-range forecasts (one day to two weeks) by accelerating research on the prediction of high-impact weather and environmental events in Polar regions; • Seasonal forecast will be dealt within the context of the WCRP-WWRP-THORPEX meeting in Exeter in December 2010 ; Medium-Range Prediction • Assessment of medium-range forecasts based on the WMO verification protocol by adding the Polar regions to the standard verification egions (e.g. tropics, NH, SH, etc.); løøk at poles separately; looking at specific needs in polar regions including TIGGE activity; • Next generation global and regional re-analyses projects would address specific Polar region needs (linkage with THORPEX- Data Assimilation); WCRP WOAP linkage • Joint field campaigns and more long term activities for verification (e.g. weather and ice forecasts) and optimal utilization of satellite-based and in-situ observations that involve nations operating global NWP systems and sea ice services; • Studies to assess the two-way Polar processes and global interactions relevant to prediction.

4. Proposed Tasks Mesoscale Weather and Nowcasting Prediction • Tackle the identified polar prediction challenges through the organization of focused research development programs (RDPs); • Note that the CAS-WCRP WGNE has a new physics parameterizations activity; discuss on how polar issues can be addressed • RDPs could be TIGGE-LAM or NAEFS like projects with extensive comparison experiments and activities; • Joint field campaigns and more long term activities for verification (e.g. weather and ice forecasts) and optimal utilization of satellite-based and in-situ observations that involve nations operating regional NWP systems. Polar specific regional models run at current resolution should be assessed • Linkage with TIGGE, Mesoscale Weather Forecasting, Nowcasting and CAS-WCRP Verification WGs.

5. Proposed Tasks Observation networks/systems and datasets • Data access: we need to recommend to EC-PORS the creation of 1-2 archiving centers for specific polar datasets (IPY, past field campaigns and ongoing) in support of RDPs, re-analyses and case studies. (sustainable, accessible, visualization capability,……)

6. An International Polar Prediction Project • Establishment of an IPY legacy project that would provide a valuable framework to foster co-operative international research and development efforts to improve high impact weather and environmental prediction capabilities for the Polar Regions. • This legacy project would coordinate polar initiatives (new or existing). • The IPY legacy project should ultimately tap on the scientific and human capacity of the NMHS having interest in Polar region forecasting applications. • It should include the participation of the TIGGE (THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble), the WCRP and different observing system organizations:

7. An International Polar Prediction Project • Global Observing System of the World Weather Watch (GOS/WWW) - physical parameters of the atmosphere; • Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) - chemical parameters of atmosphere, including ozone; • Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) - physical, chemical and biological parameters of the ocean; • World Hydrological Cycle Observing System (WHYCOS) • Global Terrestrial Observing System (GTOS) - hydrological cycle parameters (GTN-H); • GCOS Terrestrial Network for Permafrost (GTN-P) and GCOS Terrestrial Network for Glaciers (GTN-G) – parameters of cryosphere. • The success of the IPY legacy project will depends also on the ability to provide information that impacts user decision making and this will need coordination with SERA, WMO WIS and CBS.

8. An International Polar Prediction Project Next steps: • Creation of a steering committee with adequate expertise, including representation from users; • First meeting to establish an implementation plan aligned with the goals defined in this workshop, including resource requirements and coordination strategy (e.g. WCRP).

9. Considerations for an International Polar Prediction Project • EC-PORS • WCRP • Scientific challenges identified at the Oslo workshop, 5-7 October 2010.

10. WMO Executive Council panel of experts on Polar Observations, Research and Services (EC-PORS) • Recommended by WMO Congress XV – 2007, established by Exec council in 2008. Focus on integrating polar region prediction activities from research to services. • EC-PORS has ~40 members. • Services should drive EC-PORS efforts with many organisation involved. • APECS (Association of Polar Early Career Scientists): recommendation is to encourage more involvement from early-career scientists. • Suggested development of a polar prediction system could represent central motivating idea of an international polar decade (IPD).

11. Polar Research collaborative opportunities within the WCRP • Arctic climate system study (ACSYS 1994-2003): Numerous observations, including submarines provided observations. • Climate-system historical forecast project (CHFP), coordinated regional downscaling experiment (CORDEX), stratospheric and polar climate. • SPARC: study effect of ozone layer, sudden stratospheric warmings/coolings, predictability of the polar vortex, polar observations (e.g. O3) in SPARC-IPY. • GEWEX coordinated energy and water cycle observations project.

12. Polar Research collaborative opportunities within the WCRP • New study CEOP/CliV Cold Regions Study consists of 40 regional stations providing highly quality energy cycle observations. • Solas: interactions between ocean, atmosphere, sea-ice and snow pack in polar regions. • AIcI: Air Ice Chemical interactions (IGAC, SOAS, CLic). • CLic: ice sheets + sea-level rise (SLR), marine/terrestrial cryosphere. There exist numerous initiatives that integrate CliC themes e.g. carbon permafrost, regional climate modelling, sea-level rise (SLR).

13. WCRP Long-term objectives • Enabling prediction of Arctic/Antarctic climate, terrestrial cryosphere: assessment of past, current and future change and variability. • WCRP workshop: Seasonal to multidecadal predictability of polar climate, 25-29th Oct 2010 in Bergen. Idea is create a road map to arctic climate predictions, perform gap analysis, and technical and programmatic solutions, e.g. implement a seamless system. • CLIVAR project leading on reanalysis of Arctic ocean. • Concept of an international polar decade (IPD), to permit development of reanalysis, observations, modelling and DA.