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Vulnerability Index for the Environment

Vulnerability Index for the Environment. Outline of the EVI. Dr Ursula Kaly, Craig Pratt, Dr Russell Howorth, Jackson Lum, Robin Koshy, Emma Sale-Mario, Prof. Lino Briguglio, Helena McLeod, Reginald Pal and Susana Schmall. Topics for today:. Why do we need it and what is it? Uses

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Vulnerability Index for the Environment

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  1. Vulnerability Index for the Environment Outline of the EVI Dr Ursula Kaly, Craig Pratt, Dr Russell Howorth, Jackson Lum, Robin Koshy, Emma Sale-Mario, Prof. Lino Briguglio, Helena McLeod, Reginald Pal and Susana Schmall

  2. Topics for today: • Why do we need it and what is it? • Uses • Approach to building the EVI • Outputs • How are we developing the EVI?

  3. 1. Why ?The Environmental Revolution began in 1962…Lots of $$$$x106 have been spent... So why are we losing the Earth anyway?

  4. Reason 1 • Management has been at very small and very large scales • Local, kms, EIAs, Plans, replanting, ad hoc • Global & Regional, IPCC, CBD, etc Economies, social / cultural systems are organised at the scale of COUNTRIES. To integrate the environment, we need information at that scale !

  5. Reason 2 • Management is too often PROCESS focused • We limit pollution…. • We stick a conservation area here or there…. Need to focus on OUTCOMES using monitoring/ auditing - What do we want our environment to be like? - Did that policy / action work? - If not, adjust !

  6. We need tools like the EVI Ensuring the Future

  7. What is Vulnerability ? The potential for the attributes of a system to respond adversely (be damaged) by hazardous events (the converse is resilience) • The hazards / risks • The responders • Looks to the future - not just a statement of now

  8. What is a Vulnerability index ? • A shortcut. A relatively inexpensive way of characterising the vulnerability of systems (at the level of a region, country, province) • By doing this as an index, the characterisation can be comparative because there is a common basis What is the alternative? Ad hoc assessments done on a case-by-case basis for each country - very costly in terms of resources & time

  9. Single figure & breakdown Resilience What features should it have? Standardises measures Based on ecology Space comparisons Audit Signal Understandable Many functions Impartial Risk Works on different scales Country Outcomes Ensuring the Future Adaptable to other uses Quick Has confidence measures in data Intuitive Time comparisons Simple as possible

  10. Types of Vulnerability indices • Naming of index: Based on those systems which RESPOND, not the hazards themselves • Indices concerned with welfare of human systems (Economic, Social) Anthropogenic impacts, Natural disasters, Climate change / Sea-level, ENSO • Indices concerned with welfare of natural systems This is first real attempt: The Environmental Vulnerability Index

  11. 2. Uses • Ensuring the future ! • Allows integration of environment in country’s development / welfare • Determination of LDC status • What IS the environmental vulnerability of a country • Predictive - types of hazards and approaches to stewardship • Identify focus for external assistance • Performance indicator for donor funding • Measure of change (every 5 years) • Raising awareness • Monitoring sustainable development • Support SOE reporting

  12. 3. Approach to buildingthe EVI • Model / Framework • Smart Indicators

  13. The Model / FrameworkWhat is vulnerability made of? • There are the Risks and… • There is Resilienceto those risks • Intrinsic resilience: Innate fragility of a system • Extrinsic resilience: result of hazards which have acted in the past • We decided to use “health” or “degradation” of ecosystems, populations, resources, species • Assumption: The more damage sustained in the past, the less resistance to future stresses

  14. Types of sub-index • Risk exposure (REI) • How much risk to future stresses is there? • Based on existing rates of stress (narrow time frame) • Intrinsic Resilience (IRI) • Features that make up natural resilience (productivity, height, rates of reproduction) • Extrinsic Resilience = Environmental Degradation (EDI) • What is the current state of the responders? • Assumes “health” is an indication of ability to withstand future stresses • Current health is the result of all previous stresses

  15. Smart Indicators • Can’t measure everything, so need indicators • List of 49 indicators quantify / characterise risk and resilience • Broad based with Indicators for each of the aspects of vulnerability REI, IRI, EDI, also can examine categories of risk (A, M, G, B) • ‘Smart indicators’ - capture large number of elements in complex interactive system and show how the value obtained relates to some ideal or agreed-upon condition. Often end-point focused on OUTCOMES

  16. Put together…. • System for scoring the signals for each indicator on a common scale (1-7) - data can be heterogeneous • Option for weighting if required • Signals accumulated into sub-indices and a final EVI value between 1 and 7 (7 is most vulnerable) • Profiles identify problems • 80% of indicators have to be evaluated for validity

  17. 4. Calculating and outputs

  18. Weighting & Calculation Risk Exposure (REI) Score Weighting Confidence REI = 3.32 # Years between droughts 3 1 19/27 # Years between cyclones 5 1 Intrinsic Resilience (IRI) 2 5 Extrinsic Resilience (EDI) % Endemicity known species 4 1 15/20 RI = 5.03 # Endangered species 5 1

  19. Outputs Tuvalu’s Profile

  20. evi 5. Developing the EVI • 1998 First Design and pilot data • 1999 Think Tank for peer review • Approach was good • Changes in indicators and some in model • Testing required and 3 criteria to be passed for the EVI to be technically acceptable • To be useful, EVI must be made global • 2000 Revised design, collect Pacific Data • 2001-2 Globalising, setting indicators, 100 country database, testing

  21. Countries involved (40) Invited to Geneva Meeting: Australia, Bangladesh, Bolivia, Botswana, Brasil, Costa Rica, Denmark, Greece, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Kenya, Kyrgyz Republic, Maldives, Malta, Nepal, New Zealand, Norway, Philippines, Singapore, Switzerland, Thailand (23). Secured to 80%: Cook Is, Fiji, FSM, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Niue, Palau, PNG, Samoa, Tonga, Tuvalu, Vanuatu, Trinidad & Tobago (14). Part of data: Mauritius, Malta, St. Lucia (3).

  22. evi

  23. What can you do? Help with the 100 country database • Choose an indicator • Search for published data • Convert to EVI format • Plot values (determine distribution) • Help us to set levels

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