Agenda

1. Military Decision-Making Process and Effect-Based Operations Concepts:A Comparative Study, Lessons Learned and Implications

2. Agenda • Introduction • Military Decision-Making Process (MDMP) • Effect Based Approach (EBA) • Comparative Study • Lessons Learned and Implications • Concluding remarks

3. Motivation • New concepts trigger one of the three reactions: • Enthusiasm and support • Scepticism and opposition • Neutral and no interest • Innovation, Evolution and Revolution • Do EBO is an innovation, evolution or a revolution? • What is wrong? and what is the cause? What is the best, affordable, feasible and practical solution? • Need to bridge between theoretical development and practice • …

4. Decision Support ISR Fusion Capability Direct - Decide C4ISR Target Integration Model* * Capt(N) Knight Produce Orient Virtual Knowledge Base Global and Operational Data COP TPED TPPU Observe Analyze Direct Decide Act Collate CFCS Information Grid – Collaborative Information Environment Security Layer Access Control – Dissemination Layer

5. Intelligence Cycle Source: CF Joint and Land Doctrine

6. Intelligence Preparedness of the Battlespace • IPB is the analytical process used by intelligence organizations to produce intelligence assessments, estimates, and other intelligence products in support of the Commander’s decision-making process. • IPB Focus: • Battlespace effects and enemy capability • Predictive intelligence to discern enemy intent and likely COA Source: CF Joint and Land Doctrine

7. Intelligence Preparedness of the Battlespace • Define the battlespace environment • Describe the battlespace’s effects • Evaluate the adversary • Determine adversary courses of action Source: CF Joint and Land Doctrine

8. Operations Planning Process • A methodical thought process designed to Focus the Staff, Serve the Commander and Provide the Necessary Products to direct the joint force. • Steps: • Initiation • Orientation • COA Development • Plan Development • Plan Review Source: CF Joint and Land Doctrine

9. Concepts • Operational Art: Art of translating strategic objectives into operational design to link strategy to tactics. • Operational Design: Massing joint effects to attack the enemy’s centre of gravity while protecting one’s own. • Centre of Gravity: determined, not chosen • Decisive Points: determined, not chosen • Strengths & Weaknesses: friend and foe • Factors: Significant aspects of time, space & environment Source: CF Joint and Land Doctrine

10. OPP Lexicon • Centre of Gravity is a characteristic, capability or locality from which a military force, nation or alliance derives: freedom of action, strength or will • Decisive Point is a point from which a hostile or friendly Centre of Gravity can be threatened. This point may exist in time, space, or in information environment. Decisive points are often effects… Or… a condition that must be achieved to expose the enemy’s Centre of Gravity • Critical Vulnerability is a characteristic or key element of a force that if destroyed, captured or neutralised will significantly undermine the fighting capability of the force and its centre of gravity. May be a strength or a weakness. Source: CF Joint and Land Doctrine

11. Centre of Gravity Critical Capabilities Critical Requirements Critical Vulnerabilities OPP Concepts Adapted from LCol Scheidl Brief

12. DP DP DP DP DECISIVE POINTS DP CG OBJ CG ATTACK DEFEND Source: CF Joint and Land Doctrine

13. CF Decision Making Process

14. CF Decision Making Process

15. Effects Based Operations Lexicon* • An effect “is the physical, functional, or psychological outcome, event, or consequence that results from specific military or non-military actions.” It should be achievable, and measurable. • A state is a set of conditions of the system. A state could be stable or instable and have the properties of being desirable or undesirable. An End State is a set of desired conditions beyond which will achieve strategic objectives. • Objective is the intended state of affairs to be achieved by the aggregation of specified Effect(s). • Strategic aim is a single, unambiguous purpose attained by the achievement of one or more objectives. • A Decisive Effect is an effect that will either achieve an end state or complete a phase in a military operation. • Second and Third Order Effects are the tightly inter-linked flow-on outcomes from actions, or 1st order effects, which magnify the impact of the original action and are aimed at influencing the will of an individual or organisation. *: United States Department of Defence, Joint Forces Command Glossary, and other

16. Effects Based Operations Lexicon* • An Enabling Effect is an effect that adds to the system of effects designed to produce a decisive effect. • Effector is a capability, a person or an organisation that could carry an action that might result in an effect. • Constant Engagement is the concept of standing, continuous engagement with friendly, neutral and potential adversary agencies to facilitate shared situational awareness and support integrated planning to achieve national policy goals. • System - Any organized assembly of resources and procedures united and regulated by interaction or interdependence to accomplish a set of specific functions. • System of Systems - A grouping of organized assemblies of resources, methods, and procedures regulated by interaction or interdependence to accomplish a set of specific functions. For example, a "system of systems" could include the economic entities in a nation such as the banking system, production system, etc. *: United States Department of Defence, Joint Forces Command Glossary, and other

17. Effects Based Operations Lexicon* • Operational assessment is best defined as the art and science of enhancing the operational commander’s judgment and decisions about the military campaign’s effectiveness and attendant risk in progressing toward the military end state. • A node is an entity in the Network system that performs one or more basic net centric actions and is able to interact with other nodes in the system. Node – a person, place, or thing that is a fundamental component of a system. A node could be a collector, information provider, decider, effector, communicator or supporter. • An action is an activity directed towards the achievement of an effect or effects directed at a specific node [for the purpose of achieving an effect]. Actions have the properties of being direct or indirect. • Resources are the forces, material and other assets which can be employed to conduct an action. Task – one or more actions [assigned to an organization]. *: United States Department of Defence, Joint Forces Command Glossary, and other

18. Effects Based Operations – CA* ‘Operations designed to influence the long - or short-term state of a system through the achievement of desired physical or psychological effects. Operational objectives are sought to achieve directed policy aims using the integrated application of allapplicable instruments of hard/soft power. Desired effects, and the actions required to achieve them, are concurrently and adaptively planned, executed, assessed (and potentially altered) within a complex and adaptive system’ CA working definition * Grossman-Vermaas, R.., EBO Concept Development and Experimentation Initiatives, 2005.

19. Effects Based Operations • The application of military and non-military capabilities to realise specific and desired strategic and operational outcomes in peace, tension, conflict and post-conflict situations. • The intent of EBO is to produce effects - not just to conduct an action in isolation - and the planning, conduct and assessment of operations must reflect this approach. EBO focuses on military operations but also supports Whole of Nation planning. • Employing this approach, requires inter-dependencies with other government agencies, allies and coalition partners, neutral third parties and other nations. • This is not a new approach; however, EBO seeks to more effectively coordinate military effects with the various elements of power in achieving objectives.

20. EBO Concept Assumption: National Power Integration (DIME)

21. EBO Concept Assumption: National Power Integration • A broader view of conflict is a central theme of EBO: • It incorporates knowledge of not just an adversary, but OGDs, own and allied forces, as well as neutral elements such as non-government organisations. • It exploits this knowledge to generate the broadest range of effects which support the eventual achievement of the national goal. • EBO seeks to identify the 2nd, 3rd,… order effects of applying national power. • For EBO to work, all of the constituent elements of national power must employ an effects-based holistic thinking to synchronise actions. • As one of the principle elements of national power, the military will have a major role in achieving national security objectives.

22. MNE 3 Experiment Strategic Aim 1 Military Strategic Objectives 2 7 6 Effects Matrix Action Risk Assessment 8 5 Commander’s Guidance Effects Assessment 9 4 3 Commander’s Initial Guidance Mission Analysis PEL Wargaming Focused ONA 10 COA Assessment 11 Effects Synchronization 12 Commander’s Decision CEA 13 ETO Actions MNE 3 EBP Process Steps Effect-based Planning Baseline ONA

23. Operational Net Assessment (ONA) Academia Social and Cultural Vulnerabilities Dependencies Nat’l and Int’l Intelligence Political Physical Economic Defence NODES Strengths Policy Centres Legal, Ethical and Moral Scientific and Technical OGDs, IGOs Relationships Private Industry Weaknesses Military System Understanding

24. Red / Green Teaming Information Synchronization And Plan Development Gain SA/SU Political Infrastructure Military EBA Plan PEL Draft ETO Social Effects Development Action Devel. Resource Match End state Analysis Effects-Based Assessment Planning Economic EBP Process: MNE 4 Conops Ver 0.65

27. Comparative Study: EBO vs MDMP

28. Comparative Study: EBO vs MDMP • EBO is a very powerful paradigm or concepts that push the leadership to embrace a more comprehensive and holistic thinking. • EBO require to think about actions and their secondary effects. EBO lead decision makers to think not only about winning the war, but also how to win the peace. • MDMP as a very focused and oriented process, consider only planning for military actions. • The holistic thinking is appropriate for strategic change management. But, what about operational and tactical levels? How to apply the DIME concepts at the tactical level?

29. Comparative Study: EBO vs MDMP • EBO strength might be seen in its recognition of the dynamic situation analysis and the system of systems approach to it. • Leaders and their supporting staff should be able to monitor such system of systems dynamics, understand its fundamental rules and derive where to create an decisive effect to change it to a desired end state. • MDMP is based on static reading of the situation. Iterations and refinement of plans lead to reviewing the situation from time to time. • How to perform continuous situation assessment if the information is continuously changing? What is the balance between dynamic analysis and static? What is the influence of information overload on the quality of the analysis? Is it better to make some abstraction and focus on the fundamental aspects rather than continuously monitor the change?

30. Comparative Study: EBO vs MDMP • Assessing effects and actions is another good concept of EBO. • Understanding the cascading effects and their relationships is very complex undertaking. • It is sometimes impossible to list all possible effects. • MDMP focus only on assessing military actions on targets, which is more focused assessment process. • Theoretically, decision-making is better served by a holistic and coherent assessment process, practically however, it is unfeasible.

31. Comparative Study: EBO vs MDMP • EBP is continuous planning process that never stops until the desired end-state is achieved. • MDMP stops as soon as the final plan is approved and the orders are issued. • Amendment and new tasking could be issued as a reaction to execution, but tactical Commanders are given a good room of manoeuvre to adapt to situation.

32. Comparative Study: EBO vs MDMP • EBO require that all constituents of national power should be integrated and adopt and EBA thinking in order to achieve strategic aim and manage change. Theoretically, such integration is a must. • But, to which level should such integration goes. • How to enable such integration while observing national constitutions and lows? How to accommodate dynamic, continuous and agile decision-making within bureaucratic, political and sometimes polarized environments? • MDMP recognise coordination with other agencies and national power constituents. MDMP assume that more integration should happen at a higher level like the government or some special bodies.

33. Comparative Study: EBO vs MDMP • EBO to work require a high level of collaboration. Such collaboration is very broad according to EBO. • MDMP recognise collaboration, but at a very limited scale. • Advances in technology have triggered integration of collaborative planning tools within headquarters. MDMP is now more distributed and collaborative process. • Flexibility is requirement for both EBO and MDMP. • Effects and Actions Assessment might become very complex and heavy process.

34. Lessons Learned • MN LOE I concluded that collaborative planning can be conducted in a distributed environment. • MNE 3 showed that the EBP concept has potential for operational and joint task force headquarters but requires further refinement. • While participants found the process complex, they praised the concept for forcing them to think in terms of effects, which expanded their options. • MNE3 found that the staff should be organized and trained to support the requirements of the EBP process. • An integrated suite of tools is required to support distributed collaborative planning and the EBP process.

35. Implications • The main point is that the EBP and EBO concepts are still being developed. Therefore, the opportunity exists to harmonize the MDMP within the EBA. • Future experimentation could investigate the effectiveness of distributed planning with higher-level headquarters conducting EBP while subordinate headquarters conduct MDMP. • The MDMP could be modified recognizing an EBP process. • The MNE 3 lessons call for an integrated suite of tools. • Developing such a tool suite to support both processes and facilitate distributed collaborative planning amongst all of the headquarters involved should be considered.

36. Implications • The MDMP should be closely coupled to the Commander’s Intent and driven by his critical information requirements. • Information and intelligence production should be cued to the Commander’s desired effects and the MDMP should be adapted to integrate dynamic information and intelligence management and dynamic situation analysis, to develop trust among all levels of decision-making, to contribute to a shared knowledge base (ONA database), and create a collaborative decision-making environment. • These are important issues for harmonizing the MDMP with the EBP process.

37. Implications • The other key challenge will be to adapt leadership skills for a distributed coalition collaborative environment. • As found in MNE 3, different skills are required from the traditional command and control environment. • Training, Teaching and Skill Sets. • The MDMP should be reviewed and adapted based upon EBA concepts. • The EBA and the MDMP should benefit from a broad range of tools as well as supporting concepts • Network Centric Warfare, disciplines like the decision sciences, and theories like complexity theory, graph theories, and chaos theory as well as social theories

38. Implications • MOEs and MOPs (Metrics or Criteria) Fundamental Properties: • Measurable • Feasible • Comprehensive • MOEs and MOPs (Metrics or Criteria) Desired Properties

39. Concluding remarks • MDMP and EBO are not competing concepts • It is clear that the EBA/EBO is still a paradigm in development. In our opinion, the EBA and the MDMP should not be seen as competing or contradictory concepts. • EBO is not a new operational concept, it is a way of thinking or paradigm • Teach military decision-makers to integrate a holistic thinking in their way of dealing with complex problems • Develop and maintain a collaborative culture with other national and international powers

40. Concluding remarks • Power to the edge: Decentralisation versus centralisation • Sharing situation awareness • Shared intent • Trust in both direction • Agility and adaptability • Accountability: Fault tolerance • C2 Structure and Organisation • Operational Design and the Assessment are the Achilles heel of EBO

41. Concluding remarks • MDMP has become a staff centric process rather than a Command centric • MDMP supposes a static situation while EBO recognizes that environment is dynamic • Need to better integrate dynamic information and intelligence management to the OPP like persistent surveillance and dynamic situation analysis • Requirement to better integrate OPP and IPB: Intelligence and Information production should be cued toward achieving the desired effects • MDMP should be seen as problem solving process that could be modernised by teaching a holistic analytical thinking: Critical thinking • Emerging tools and sciences are required like chaos theory • …