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President Obama and Congress in 2009

This article explores the potential policy, process, and political changes that may occur during Obama's presidency. It also discusses constitutional and political factors influencing Obama and Congress, the type of election influences on change, the decline of the political center, and macro problems and policy making. The challenges and issues facing Obama and Congress are examined, along with potential consensus on solutions and the efficacy of Obama's leadership.

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President Obama and Congress in 2009

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  1. President Obama and Congress in 2009 James A. Thurber Director and Professor Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies American University thurber@american.edu 202-885-6247 www.american.edu/ccps Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies www.american.edu/ccps

  2. Will Obama Change the Way Washington Works?Policy Changes?Process Changes?Political Changes? Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies www.american.edu/ccps

  3. Constitutional & Political Factors Influencing Obama and Congress • Separation of Powers & Elections • Bicameralism • Federalism • First Amendment Rights • Pluralism

  4. The Type of Election Influences Change Presidential Campaigns(national mandate/coattails?) vs. House Campaigns( competitive?) (50+ Blue Dogs) vs. Senate Campaigns (clear majority?)

  5. Search for the Modal Voter in the Electorate and Congress Number of Voters/ Members of Congress Conservative Liberal Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies www.american.edu/ccps

  6. Decline of the Political Center 1961-2009

  7. Obama and the Election • Change Election and the Economy • Primaries vs. General Election • 6% Party, 38% PAC, & 56% Individual Campaign Funds/Obama $750 m. +/60% small contributions • Permanent Campaign/ $5 Billion in 2008 • New Ground War and Focused Air War/New Media-Internet • Disciplined Strategy, Theme and Message link to Tactics

  8. The Meaning of the 2008 Election: Change • Break up of the Solid Democratic South vs. 2008 Election (VA/NC) • Divided Party Government (1887-1945 (12% divided), 1946-1980 (67%), 1981-2008 (79%), 2009 unified • Close Presidential Elections/No Mandate until 2008 (No mandate 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004) • Partisan Polarization vs. Bipartisanship? • Dem. Majorities in House (more blue dogs) • Senate Deadlocked (59?) • Attack on Lobbyists/New Ethics Rules in 2009 Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies www.american.edu/ccps

  9. Macro Problems and Macro Policy Making Economic Crisis and the Stimulus Package • Consensus on Problem? • Consensus on Solution? • Strong Interest Groups in Favor of Solution? • Limits on Resources? • Central Core of Authority? White House COS and Policy Czars • Obama “honeymoon”? Political Capital Decay Rate? Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies www.american.edu/ccps

  10. Macro Policy Making What caused the economic problems? Greed and Irresponsibility? Deregulation, predatory/bad lending, “liar loans”, housing bubble 1999 Repeal of Glass-Steagall Act (merge of commercial banks and financial services industry…bigger risks, debt to capital ration 12:1 to 30:1)(gambling) Cut on tax rate on capital gains…excessive borrowing to invest with tax deductible interest Executive Stock Options and Fake Numbers October 3, 2008 Bailout (“Cash for Trash”?) Excessive money flowing into the US for investment Government and personal debt Trade imbalances Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies www.american.edu/ccps

  11. Consensus on Solutions? • Top Down Decision Making on Stimulus Package (started with $850 b. total then moved to details) • Obama’s Bipartisan Efforts • House $819 (Republicans-no) • Senate $900 (Republicans?) • Governors (Medicaid/SCHIP/Safety Net) • Interest groups (feeding frenzy)

  12. Source: WashingtonPost.com

  13. Source: WashingtonPost.com

  14. Source: WashingtonPost.com

  15. Source: WashingtonPost.com

  16. Source: WashingtonPost.com

  17. Obama’s Challenges? • Individualism vs. Centralization (and weak leaders) vs. Chairs (old bulls) vs. President Obama • Problem of Partisan and Ideological Splits • Special interests vs. pubic interest? • Does Pluralism win over Party Discipline and President Obama?

  18. Issues Facing President Obama, and Congress • The Economy/Deficit-Debt/Taxes-Spending (Stimulus Bill - Short term spending and long obligations/debt) • The Wars/Military/U.S. Image Abroad • Health Care-cost, quality, finance, access • Energy/Environment (cap and trade/alternative energy) • Education (NCLB) • Immigration • Efficiency of Government

  19. Obama and Congress Policy Making in 2009 Consensus about problems and threat:? (Economy, Wars/Foreign Policy, Health, Energy/Environment). Consensus about solutions to problems? Will strong interest groups disagree about problems and solutions? Limits on resources, large deficits/debt? Central core of political authority? Obama Decay rate? Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies www.american.edu/ccps

  20. President ObamaInaugural Speech:“The question we ask today is not whether our government is too big or too small but weather it works---whether it helps families find jobs at a decent wage, care they can afford, retirement that is dignified.”

  21. President ObamaInaugural Speech on Foreign Policy:Earlier Generations...”understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please.”He denounced the “false choice between our safety and our ideals.”

  22. 1998-2006 White House Revolving Door (Lobbyist-Alumni)

  23. Lobbying Firms with White House Alumni • Data combined across nine reporting periods, 1998 to 2006 • Darkness of shading indicates higher degree of centrality • Top 25 firms

  24. Will President Obama Change the Way Congress and Washington Works?Questions and Comments? Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies www.american.edu/ccps

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