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Estimating Schedule Durations

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  1. Estimating Schedule Durations Using MS Project PERT Analysis Tool Presented by Harry Smith MPUG St. Louis Chapter Member February 9, 2011

  2. Agenda • What is PERT? • Estimating Industry Best Practices • Project Management Scenario • Challenges • Opportunities for improvement • PERT Analysis tool demo • Questions

  3. PERT • Program Evaluation and Review Technique • Critical path is calculated based on: • Estimated durations of activities • Links between the activities (predecessor/successor relationships) • Collect a range of estimates using a weighted average for the duration estimates • Optimistic, Most Likely, Pessimistic

  4. Some Industry Best Practices • Multiple estimates (i.e., bottom-up & top down) • Project team members are the best source of task estimates • Leverage tools if possible • Historical data can be very helpful

  5. Estimate Attributes • Exact-estimate is an oxymoron • Realistic estimates must be: • Specific • Repeatable • Defendable

  6. Estimating Inputs • Subject matter experts (SME) have been identified for estimating tasks • The WBS has been defined and converted to schedule tasks/activities • The project task dependencies have been identified • Identify which tasks/activities will be estimated using the PERT analysis tool

  7. Project Management Scenario • Deliver software components for new web-based applications and enhancements to legacy systems • Manage the project cost, schedule, and effort within ± 10% of baseline estimates

  8. Challenges • Schedule delivery dates were fixed by the customer. • Costs were constrained by budget estimates set with very few requirements. • Delivery scope was somewhat flexible. • Historically, estimated project completion dates were not very accurate. • In fact, individual task estimates were not very accurate.

  9. Opportunity for Improvement • Post-project analysis discovered that schedule variances were primarily due to weak task estimates. • Focus on improving estimating procedures and techniques without drastically impacting how long it takes to prepare estimates.

  10. MS Project and PERT • Getting started – activate the PERT Analysis toolbar

  11. MS Project and PERT • Click on PERT entry sheet toolbar icon • Click on PERT Entry Form icon and enter values

  12. MS Project and PERT • Click on the PERT weighting icon to set weighting values

  13. MS Project and PERT • On the PERT toolbar click on the calculation icon to calculate the task average weighted duration • Next go to the duration field and round up or down to whole numbers as appropriate • Tip: When you hit the calculation icon this will not undo like other actions in MS Project

  14. MS Project and PERT • Adding a text field for comments allows you to document any assumptions that were used to come up with values. • Remember specific, repeatable, and defendable

  15. Questions

  16. PDU for Members & Guests: • PDU activity code is: mpugstlouis020911. • PDUs can be claimed under category 3 on the PMI website. Contact info: Harry Smith email: harry.l.smith@frb.stls.org

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