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Winds of Change

Winds of Change. “The US has entered a new energy era, ending a century of rising carbon emissions”  way too soon to know 2008 decreases: 5% less oil (true) 1% less coal (true) 3% lower carbon emissions (true) All good news …. But only if.

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Winds of Change

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  1. Winds of Change • “The US has entered a new energy era, ending a century of rising carbon emissions”  way too soon to know • 2008 decreases: • 5% less oil (true) • 1% less coal (true) • 3% lower carbon emissions (true) • All good news …

  2. But only if • Those rates sustain themselves over the next 20 years! • Yes demand is falling because of economic conditions – do we really expect this to continue? • 102 wind farms  8400 Megawatts of electricity generating capacity  but is this a little or a lot?

  3. Wind and Solar • “300,000 MW” of wind projects await access to the grid  how do you know; in principle 3 TW await access • Solar Cell Installations growing at 40% a year  sounds good, but is this fast enough for solar to effectively replace coal fired electricity?

  4. Transportation • “Gains” in electric/plug-in hybrid vehicles depends critically on source of electricity • At 52% coal fired electricity, nationally, there is little to no gain and in fact, in principle, we would have to build new (coal) generation to charge up EVs  that would be beyond stupid

  5. Big Generalizations • “Civilization is in Trouble” • When is “civilization” not in trouble …? • China’s strategy is “changing fast”  how would anyone know? China is still building a dirty coal plant each week … until that stops, there is no change.

  6. A flawed premise? • “The countries that cut carbon emissions fastest will have a competitive advantage” • Why? • Does anyone really believe this? • Competitive advantage in what context?

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