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This is Africa???

This is Africa???. Physical Geography and Demographics. 2 nd lar gest continent 1/5 th w orld’s land area + 11.5 million sq. miles. 4600 mi. 5000 mi. Diamonds : 46% of the world Gold : 21% of the world Uranium : 16% of the world Bauxite : 9% of the world

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This is Africa???

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  1. This is Africa???

  2. Physical Geography and Demographics

  3. 2nd largest continent • 1/5th world’s land area • + 11.5 million sq. miles 4600 mi. 5000 mi.

  4. Diamonds : 46% of the world • Gold : 21% of the world • Uranium : 16% of the world • Bauxite : 9% of the world • Platinum : 62% of the world

  5. Demographic Characteristics • 1 billion + • 158 million + in Nigeria (world’s 8th largest) • rural but rapidly urbanizing • young • high mortality/fertility (IMR 86, TFR 5) • low population density/uneven distribution

  6. Political, Cultural and Economic Geography

  7. Independence

  8. Cold War Africa • Peripheral region, not in formal alliance networks • Both blocs competed for influence with aid, trade, and weapons • Continued special role for UK and especially France • Proxy wars via insurgencies, but little interstate conflict • Volatile – several countries “changed sides” after coups or successful insurgencies • As in colonial times, resource extraction was a key interest Alliances, 1980

  9. Regional Institutional Alliances Arab Maghreb Union (AMU) Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) Economic Community Central African States (CEEAC) Economic and Monetary Community of CA States (CEMAC) East African Community (EAC) Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) Other organizations Community of Sahel-Sahara States (CEN-SAD) Common Market of Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) Arab League (AL) African Union (AU)

  10. Persistent Development Challenges • Difficult Geography • Location & borders • Climate & disease burden • Governance • Corruption • Limited capacity & institutional development • Conflict Effects • Population Growth • Inequitable Development • Urban bias • Declining value added • Resource and income outflow and inequity

  11. Changes • Macroeconomics • Debt • Commodity Prices • Budgetary and Fiscal Policies • Foreign Investment • Governance & Political Change • Institutional Development

  12. 30% 2025 30% 2006 North America North Asia EU Other 33% 19% Percent of World Gross National Income ~by region (source: JOE) 16% 11% South Asia 31% 17%

  13. Literacy Rates Literacy, Ages 15-24

  14. PRC Investment Projects Geo-economic Competition

  15. Political-Military Challenges

  16. Failed States Index

  17. African conflict areas, 2010 (US DoS)

  18. Africa’s World War (1996-2003+) • Great Lakes states vs DRC + misc. allies • Mining interests key, plus Rwanda ‘94 legacy • “Hybrid War”: State support and regular forces sent, but, most action via militias and bandits, including rape and cannibalism • Foreign troops out, conflicts smolder BLUE = DRC Govt Supporters GREEN = Opposing Alliance

  19. Conflict in DeclineSource: Uppsala Conflict Database

  20. Peacekeeping Missions • Long history – back to Congo 1960 • Missions by UN, EU, AU, ECOWAS • Have played useful role in verifying and implementing peace accords • AU wants more African capability, less need for UN/EU

  21. African Democracy In 1980s, only ~5 democracies Many reforms in early 1990s New wave in 2011??? (as of 2009)

  22. Political Trends in Africa, 1950-2007 African Countries

  23. HIV Prevalence

  24. Al-Qaeda in Africa

  25. Rebels Without a Cause? There is a very simple reason why some of Africa's bloodiest, most brutal wars never seem to end: They are not really wars. The combatants don't have much of an ideology or goals. They couldn't care less about taking over capital cities -- they prefer the bush, where it is easier to commit crimes. Today's rebels seem uninterested in winning converts, content to steal children, stick Kalashnikovs or axes in their hands, and make them do the killing. ….what is spreading across Africa like a viral pandemic is just opportunistic, heavily armed banditry. Jeffery Gettleman (NYT Africa bureau chief), FP.com, 2010

  26. IUU and Illegal Dumping Indian Ocean = 25% Global Tuna Catch IUU = 30% W. Indian Ocean Catch 20% Tanzanian Catch 15% Mozambique Catch $90-300 billion off Somalia SOURCE: UNEP, NATIONAL RAPID ENVIRONMENTAL DESK ASSESSMENT – SOMALIA, 2005

  27. Somali Piracy

  28. “…like a coast guard…”? “We don't consider ourselves sea bandits,” said Sugule Ali: “We consider sea bandits those who illegally fish in our seas and dump waste in our seas and carry weapons in our seas. We are simply patrolling our seas. Think of us like a coast guard.” (Somali pirate on M/V Faina, from New York Times, Sept 2008) Captured Spanish fishing trawler

  29. 2011 Incidents(as of 18 Aug 2011, International Maritime Bureau) Worldwide:Total Attacks: 314Total Hijackings: 31 Incidents Reported for Somalia:Total Incidents: 178Total Hijackings: 22Total Hostages: 362Total Killed: 7 Ransom to date: $77.2 million Current vessels held by Somali pirates:Vessels: 18Persons held: 355

  30. PIRACY: Gulf of Guinea • 27 attacks (Jan-Aug 2011) • Incidents higher if include sea robbery (60% not reported in Nigeria?) • Different than Somalia

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