1 / 81

The Global Economy Introduction

The Global Economy Introduction. Roadmap. Weekly discussion Trends Trade in goods and services Fluctuations Inflation and output Course information. Weekly discussion. First 10-15 minutes of class Focus on topic from Bb discussion More on this later A hook into current events

gil
Télécharger la présentation

The Global Economy Introduction

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. The Global EconomyIntroduction

  2. Roadmap • Weekly discussion • Trends • Trade in goods and services • Fluctuations • Inflation and output • Course information

  3. Weekly discussion • First 10-15 minutes of class • Focus on topic from Bb discussion • More on this later • A hook into current events • Be reading! (The Economist, FT, …) • Interesting articles, anecdotes?

  4. FOMC Statement (9/13/12) • “To support a stronger economic recovery … the Committee agreed today to increase policy accommodation by purchasing additional agency MBS at a pace of $40 billion per month.” • “If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the Committee … will undertake additional asset purchases … until such improvement is achieved in a context of price stability. • “The Committee … currently anticipates that exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate are likely to be warranted at least through mid-2015.” • Why such an aggressive policy?

  5. Where do we Stand?Output by cycle

  6. Productivity by cycle

  7. Labor by cycle

  8. U.S. vs. Europe

  9. Class participation • A part of class • I expect everyone to participate: expect cold calls • Answer a question • Make a comment • Share an experience • Post to Bb discussion • Broad range of backgrounds • Expert: keep it short • Non-expert: don’t panic

  10. Roadmap • Weekly discussion • Trends • Trade in goods and services • Fluctuations • Inflation and output • Course information

  11. Long-Run Performance Production, Saving &Investment, Productivity, Institutions, Capital & Labor Markets, International Trade First half: Short-Run Performance Inflation, Economic Indicators, Aggregate Supply & Demand, Monetary Policy, Taxes & Deficits, Exchange Rates, Capital Flows, Emerging Market Crises Second half: The big picture

  12. Long run: GDP per capita Source: Penn World Tables 7.0.

  13. Short run: US real GDP growth ?

  14. Trends

  15. The wealth of nations • U.S. GDP/capita > 100 x Burundi GDP/capita • What explains these differences?

  16. Long-run economic growthGDP per capita in Year 2000 international dollars Source: Maddison, 2001; 2008 estimate based on Maddison tables.

  17. Trends are important Source: Maddison, “Historical Statistics for the World Economy”

  18. Do institutions matter? U.S. India Note: Size of circle is proportional to population. Data sources: World Bank and Transparency International.

  19. Do institutions matter? U.S. China Note: Size of circle is proportional to population. Data sources: World Bank and Heritage Foundation.

  20. Common culture, different institutions

  21. Trade in Goods and ServicesWho trades what, and why?

  22. How do trade patterns evolve? • Who are the U.S.’s largest trade partners? • What good is most traded? (value-wise) • How are trade patterns changing? • Why are they changing?

  23. US imports

  24. US imports Canada Japan Mexico China

  25. US exports Canada Mexico Japan China

  26. Short-run Fluctuations:Business Cycles

  27. Business cycles

  28. Business cycles

  29. Inflation and Output

  30. US inflation (annual)

  31. Argentina inflation (annual)

  32. Inflation and output: evidence 1959-69

  33. Inflation and output: evidence 1959-99

  34. About the course • Main data sources • Blackboard • Syllabus: on Bb • Announcements: on Bb • Course by session: on Bb

  35. About me • Originally from Madison, WI • PhD in Economics, U. Minnesota • Previous: U. Texas-Austin, Minneapolis FED • Research interests: • International trade policy • Firm level export decisions • Emerging market crises • Other interests: • Computers, running, beer

  36. About the teaching assistant • M: Saahil Sajnani • sps362@stern.nyu.edu • T: Deger Atay • da1188@stern.nyu.edu • W: Jasper Cooper • jc3850@stern.nyu.edu

  37. About class notes • No textbook! • Theoretical background to class discussion • Executive summaries: more concise than a textbook • Custom designed for this course • Read them – preferably before class • Entire PDF is available for download from Bb • Perfect for phone, tablet, etc.

  38. About your grade

  39. About assignments 5 problem sets PS #0: individual problem set PS #1-4: group work is fine You chose the group No more than 5 to a group Group of 1 is fine Drop lowest score, average the rest Submit via Bb dropbox

  40. About assignments Weekly discussion board A way to Participate Keep up on current issues Once during the semester, you will post a “lead” comment Details in handout

  41. About help! Problem set help Post to discussion board, I will answer there Other help Send me an email Stop by See the teaching assistant

  42. About helping me • Course works best if communication goes both ways • If you have ideas, comments, questions, whatever: • Send an email • Speak to the teaching assistant • Post on the discussion board

  43. Summary As Haiku: read notes before class if you need help ask for it Blackboard is knowledge

  44. The Global EconomyMeasurement

  45. Roadmap • FRED • Headline Data • Gross Domestic Product (GDP) • Inflation • How are they measured? • What are the basic facts? • Why care about GDP?

  46. Your friend FRED • Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED) • Basic tutorials • Mobile apps • Excel add-ins for Windows and Mac • Basic graph: Enter code in FRED search box • Edit graph to change dates, frequency, appearance, units, etc. • PDF of graph for homework • Download data into Excel spreadsheet

  47. FRED data in Excel • Start at FRED home page • Graph the first data series that you wish to download • Click “Edit Graph” • (1) Adjust the date range, frequency, units • (2) Click “Add data series” • (3) Enter new data code in the search box, repeat step 1 and click “Redraw Graph” • (4) Repeat steps (1) to (3) until the series are all graphed • Click “Download Data in Graph” • Save the Excel file for further analysis of data

  48. Why worry about measurement? • Need a common vocabulary • Small changes in definition make big differences • Accurate forecasting requires consistent measurements

  49. GDP per capita (PPP adj, 2006 USD) Source: PWT 7.0

  50. Growth of GDP per capita (forecast for 2013) Source: OECD Economic Outlook, April 2012.

More Related