1 / 33

HISTORY OF GEOSTATISTICS - PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE

HISTORY OF GEOSTATISTICS - PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE. Donald E. Myers University of Arizona http://www.u.arizona.edu/~donaldm. OUTLINE. IAMG PROBLEMS/OBJECTIVES WHAT WAS USED BEFORE MATHERON, GANDIN and MATERN COMPUTING OTHER PEOPLE WHERE IS IT GOING? CONFERENCES SOME BOOKS. IAMG.

gilon
Télécharger la présentation

HISTORY OF GEOSTATISTICS - PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. HISTORY OF GEOSTATISTICS - PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE Donald E. Myers University of Arizona http://www.u.arizona.edu/~donaldm

  2. OUTLINE • IAMG • PROBLEMS/OBJECTIVES • WHAT WAS USED BEFORE • MATHERON, GANDIN and MATERN • COMPUTING • OTHER PEOPLE • WHERE IS IT GOING? • CONFERENCES • SOME BOOKS

  3. IAMG • www.iamg.org • Formed in Prague in 1968 • Earth science in broad sense • Celebrated 25th anniversary in Prague • Publishes three journals • Annual conferences • Five previous Distinguished Lecturers

  4. PROBLEMS/OBJECTIVES -I • Given data for some characteristic at multiple locations in space, predict/estimate value at non-data location • Local or global? • Single value or probability distribution? • Predict/estimate average over an area or volume • Provide some measure of uncertainty or reliability

  5. PROBLEMS/OBJECTIVES -II • Applications in • Mining • Hydrology • Petroleum • Yarus-Chambers Armchair overview.pdf • Petroleum geostatistics.pdf • Petroleum geostatistics Part 2.pdf • Soil Science • Ecology • Epidemiology

  6. PROBLEMS/OBECTIVES -III • Environmental monitoring and assessment • Agronomy • Atmospheric Sciences • Any discipline with spatial data • Complications with spatial data • Often expensive to collect and/or difficult • Point data vs non-point data • Hard data vs soft data

  7. GEOSTATISTICS -I • Data, non-random sample from one realization of a random function • Model based, not design based • Values at two close locations are more similar than for two locations far apart? • Spatial correlation • Variogram, covariance function • Must be estimated/fitted • Functions of distance & direction • Variogram interpretation and modeling.pdf

  8. GEODSTATISTICS -II • Incorporates information about proximity of each data location to every other data location • Incorporates information about proximity of each data location to estimation point • Estimator is a weighted linear combination of data values • Weights do not directly depend on the data values

  9. WHAT WAS USED BEFORE -I? • Voronoi diagrams, Thiessen polygons, (used by Descartes in 1600’s but not named until much later) • Nearest neighbor, Polygonal method • Strictly geometric • Inverse Distance Weighting • Weighted linear combination, weights inversely proportional to distance from data location to estimation point

  10. WHAT WAS USED BEFORE-II? • Advantages/disadvantages Nearest Neighbor • Does not incorporate characteristics of data • Very dependent on the pattern of data locations • Advantages/disadvantages Inverse Distance Weighting • Does not incorporate characteristics of data • Does not incorporate pattern of data locations • Very dependent on pattern of data locations • Petroleum geostatistics vs deterministic methods.pdf

  11. WHAT WAS USED BEFORE-III? • Spline (1-D drafting tool) • None of the above directly address • Estimating spatial averages • Provide measures of uncertainty • None of the above generate alternative scenarios, i.e., simulation • Useful in planning • Possible alternative to estimation/prediction

  12. Bertil Matern • 1917- • Student of Harald Cramer • Professor of Mathematical Statistics in Forestry • Spatial Variation- 1960 (Swedish) • Applications to forestry • Importance of spatial dependence and variation noted as early as 1947 • Published in English in 1986

  13. Lev Gandin • 1921-1927 • Born in Lenningrad • Musician, Chess player or Mathematician? • USSR Main Geophysical Lab and Lenningrad Hydrometeorological Institute 1943-1981 • Objective Analysis of Meteorological Fields (1963)- (Russian) • Translated into English 1965 • Lost position in 1981 • Nat. Centers for Envir. Prediction1987 • Lev Gandin, 1921-1997.pdf

  14. Georges Matheron - I • 1930-2000 • Matheron obituary.pdf • Traité de Géostatistique appliquée, tome 1 (1962), tome 2 (1963). Paris: Editions Technip. • Centre de Geostatistiques et Morphologie Mathematiques, Ecole des Mines de Paris (Fontainebleau)

  15. Georges Matheron -II • The theory of regionalized variables and its applications. Paris School of Mines publication, (1971) • The intrinsic random functions and their applications. Adv Appl Prob 5: (1973)439-68. • Random Sets and Integral Geometry. J. Wiley. (1975)

  16. Georges Matheron - III • Also did fundamental work on flows in porous media • Assembled group of students and researchers • Strong ties with mining industry, petroleum industry • Hydrology research group at Fontainebleau

  17. Georges Matheron -IV • Was acquainted with Matern and Gandin and their work • Influenced by work of D. Krige (South Africa) • Mathematical Morphology group became separate

  18. The Big Names • Gandin was and is very well known in climatology, perhaps less so outside of that field • Matern was and is well known in forestry and later perhaps in statistics • Matheron was not as well known in statistics originally but ideas were spread by his students and contacts in industry

  19. COMPUTING -I • The works of Matheron, Gandin and Matern all had their origins in earlier work by Kolmogorov, Wiener, etc but! • To actually use the ideas and results required extensive computing, the timing was right • Mainframe computers- late 1940’s, early 1950’s (Illiac, prototype for computer at Aberdeen Proving Grounds, 1 K random access memory) • http://www.cs.uiuc.edu/about/history.php

  20. COMPUTING -II • VAX 11/780 1978(CERN) • www.webmythology.com/VAXhistory.htm • IBM PC 1981 • inventors.about.com/library/weekly/aa031599.htm • 4.77 mhz, 16 k memory, no hard disk • www-03.ibm.com/ibm/history/exhibits/pc/pc_1.html • www.old-computers.com/museum/computer.asp?c=274

  21. COMPUTING -III • Geostatistics Software • 1970’s BLUEPACK (Fontainebleau) • 1988 GEOEAS (EPA) for DOS on PC • Geostatistics tutorial using GeoEAS.pdf • 1992 GSLIB Fortran codes • 1996 VARIOWIN (Windows version of Vario and PreVar) • 1990’s ISATIS (workstation software, Fontainebleau, GeoVariances)

  22. COMPUTING -IV • geostatistics add-on for ArcGIS • Spatial Analyst in S-Plus • gstat, geoR packages in R • Overview gstat and geoR.pdf • gstat tutorial.pdf • Proc in SAS • SGems • www.ai-geostats.org/index.php?id=107 • More complete list including various commercial software packages

  23. OTHER PEOPLE -I • Michel David • Obituary -Mathematical Geology 37 (2005) 449-450 • Michel David obituary.pdf • Started program at the Ecole Polytechnique-Montreal, brought over from France • Geostatistical Ore Reserve Estimation (1977) • Short courses and consulting

  24. OTHER PEOPLE -II • Andre Journel • Brought over from Fontainebleau to start program at Stanford (supported by Fluor) • Mining Geostatistics (1978) with Ch. Huibregts • GSLIB (1992) with C.. Deutsch • Short courses, consulting • Links to industry

  25. OTHER PEOPLE -III • John Davis • Formerly head of the Mathematical Geology group at the Kansas Geological Survey • Statistics and Data Analysis in Geology (1973) • One of founders of IAMG • First IAMG Distinguished Lecturer Daniel Merriam • One of the founders of IAMG • Hosted Matheron on several occasions

  26. OTHER PEOPLE -IV • Krige, Danie G. 1919- • "A statistical approach to some basic mine valuation problems on the Witwatersrand". J. of the Chem., Metal. and Mining Soc. of South Africa 52 (1951): 119-139.  • Tribute to Krige.pdf • Richard Webster • Rothamstead Research Center (UK) • Four seminal articles about applications in soil science, 1979-1980 • Geostatistics for Environmental Scientists (2001) with M. Oliver • Noel Cressie • Statistics for Spatial Data (1993) • Brian Ripley • Spatial Statistics • Contributor to R

  27. WHERE IS IT GOING? • Multivariate methods • Simulation • Space-time modeling • Multi-point modeling • New(er) applications • Ecology • Image Analysis • Connections with other methods

  28. CONFERENCES -1 • Initially geostatistics had many of its own conferences (with proceedings) • NATO ASI, Rome 1975 • NATO ASI, Lake Tahoe 1983 • NATO ASI, Il Ciocco (Italy) 1987 • Avignon, Fr. 1988 • Troia , Portugal 1992 • Wollongong, Australia 1996

  29. CONFERENCES -II • South Africa 2000 • Banff, Canada 2004 • Santiago, Chile 2008 • Geostatistics for the Next Century Montreal 1993 • Geostatistics and the Environment conferences (with proceedings) • GEOENV I 1996 • GEOENV II Valencia 1998

  30. CONFERENCES -III • GEOENV III Avignon 1999 • GEOENV IV Barcelona 2002 • GEOENV V 2005 • GEOENV VI 2006 Rhodes, Greece • GEOENV VII 2008 Southhampton, UK

  31. SOME OTHER BOOKS -I • An Intro. To Applied Geostatistics, E. Issaks and M. Srivastav • Geostatistics: Modeling Spatial Uncertainty, Jean-Paul Chilès and Pierre Delfiner • Geostatistics for Natural Resources Evaluation, P. Goovaerts • Multivariate Geostatistics, H. Wackernagel • Geostatistics and Petroleum Geology, M Hohn • Model Based Geostatistics, Peter J. Diggle and Paulo Justiniano Ribeiro

  32. SOME OTHERBOOKS -II • Stochastic Modeling and Geostatistics I: Principles, Methods and Case Studies, J. Yarus and R. Chambers, AAPG • Stochastic Modeling and Geostatistics II: Principles, Methods and Case Studies, T.C. Coburn, AAPG • Interpolation of Spatial Data: Some theory for kriging, M. Stein

  33. IAMG http://www.iamg.org

More Related