Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California

1. Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California Science Department, Audubon California Presented by Bill Monahan

2. Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California Declining Species: California’s WatchList Declining Species: Common Birds in Decline

3. Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California Climate Change

4. Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California • Climate in California • Rich record of • weather stations has • allowed climatologists • to model climate for • the entire state • We have this • information now, in the • past, and future

5. Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California Change in Max Temperature 1960-2006 Change in Min Temperature 1960-2006

6. Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California • Birds in California • Christmas Bird Count (CBC) • Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) Volunteer Science

7. Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California How do we forecast bird distributions? How do we forecast land-based conservation? How do we translate forecasting into action?

8. Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California • How do we forecast bird distributions? • How do we forecast land-based conservation? • How do we translate forecasting into action? • Answer: Flexible GIS toolkit with: • Lots of bird data • Lots of climate data • Expert knowledge • A network of dedicated people

9. Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California • Outline • Methods • Species-climate modeling methods • Simple example of model • Results • How models relate to current distribution • Ability of models to “forecast” past changes in distribution • Scalability: Land-based conservation • Emerging distributional responses to future climate change • Conclusions & Next Steps

10. Geographic Information System Species Distribution Model Predictive Distribution Map Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California Methods: Overview of species distribution modeling

11. Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California Methods • Starting data • Bird: CBC & BBS • Presence-only (1966-2006) • Climate: PRISM, 19 bioclimatic • variables (1966-2006) • Split into 4 decades matching • cool / warm phases of PDO

12. Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California Methods: The Pacific Decadal Oscillation

13. Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California Methods • Species models: • Maxent • Domain • Optimize • Approach: • Phase I: Historic validation • Phase II: Ensemble forecasting All using presence-only data

14. Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California Methods Phase I: Historic validation

15. Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California Methods Phase II: Ensemble forecasting Spp. A Maxent Domain Optimize A1B B1 A2 A1B B1 A2 A1B B1 A2 M1, M2, M3, M4, M5, M6, M7, M8, M9, M10, M11, M12, M13, M14, M15, M16, M17, M18, M19, M20, M21, M22, M23, M24, M25, M26, M27, M28, M29, M30, M31, M32, M33, M34, M35, M36, M37, M38, M39, M40 M1, M2, M3, M4, M5, M6, M7, M8, M9, M10, M11, M12, M13, M14, M15, M16, M17, M18, M19, M20,M21, M22, M23, M24, M25, M26, M27, M28, M29, M30, M31, M32, M33, M34, M35, M36, M37, M38, M39, M40 M1, M2, M3, M4, M5, M6, M7, M8, M9, M10, M11, M12, M13, M14, M15, M16, M17, M18, M19, M20, M21, M22, M23, M24, M25, M26, M27, M28, M29, M30, M31, M32, M33, M34, M35, M36, M37, M38, M39, M40 M1, M2, M3, M4, M5, M6, M7, M8, M9, M10, M11, M12, M13, M14, M15, M16, M17, M18, M19, M20, M21, M22, M23, M24, M25, M26, M27, M28, M29, M30, M31, M32, M33, M34, M35, M36, M37, M38, M39, M40 M1, M2, M3, M4, M5, M6, M7, M8, M9, M10, M11, M12, M13, M14, M15, M16, M17, M18, M19, M20, M21, M22, M23, M24, M25, M26, M27, M28, M29, M30, M31, M32, M33, M34, M35, M36, M37, M38, M39, M40 M1, M2, M3, M4, M5, M6, M7, M8, M9, M10, M11, M12, M13, M14, M15, M16, M17, M18, M19, M20, M21, M22, M23, M24, M25, M26, M27, M28, M29, M30, M31, M32, M33, M34, M35, M36, M37, M38, M39, M40 M1, M2, M3, M4, M5, M6, M7, M8, M9, M10, M11, M12, M13, M14, M15, M16, M17, M18, M19, M20, M21, M22, M23, M24, M25, M26, M27, M28, M29, M30, M31, M32, M33, M34, M35, M36, M37, M38, M39, M40 M1, M2, M3, M4, M5, M6, M7, M8, M9, M10, M11, M12, M13, M14, M15, M16, M17, M18, M19, M20M21, M22, M23, M24, M25, M26, M27, M28, M29, M30, M31, M32, M33, M34, M35, M36, M37, M38, M39, M40 M1, M2, M3, M4, M5, M6, M7, M8, M9, M10, M11, M12, M13, M14, M15, M16, M17, M18, M19, M20, M21, M22, M23, M24, M25, M26, M27, M28, M29, M30, M31, M32, M33, M34, M35, M36, M37, M38, M39, M40 360 predictive distribution maps / species

16. Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California Methods Phase II: Ensemble forecasting Spp. A Maxent Domain Optimize A1B B1 A2 A1B B1 A2 A1B B1 A2 M1, M2, M3, M4, M5, M6, M7, M8, M9, M10, M11, M12, M13, M14, M15, M16, M17, M18, M19, M20, M21, M22, M23, M24, M25, M26, M27, M28, M29, M30, M31, M32, M33, M34, M35, M36, M37, M38, M39, M40 M1, M2, M3, M4, M5, M6, M7, M8, M9, M10, M11, M12, M13, M14, M15, M16, M17, M18, M19, M20,M21, M22, M23, M24, M25, M26, M27, M28, M29, M30, M31, M32, M33, M34, M35, M36, M37, M38, M39, M40 M1, M2, M3, M4, M5, M6, M7, M8, M9, M10, M11, M12, M13, M14, M15, M16, M17, M18, M19, M20, M21, M22, M23, M24, M25, M26, M27, M28, M29, M30, M31, M32, M33, M34, M35, M36, M37, M38, M39, M40 M1, M2, M3, M4, M5, M6, M7, M8, M9, M10, M11, M12, M13, M14, M15, M16, M17, M18, M19, M20, M21, M22, M23, M24, M25, M26, M27, M28, M29, M30, M31, M32, M33, M34, M35, M36, M37, M38, M39, M40 M1, M2, M3, M4, M5, M6, M7, M8, M9, M10, M11, M12, M13, M14, M15, M16, M17, M18, M19, M20, M21, M22, M23, M24, M25, M26, M27, M28, M29, M30, M31, M32, M33, M34, M35, M36, M37, M38, M39, M40 M1, M2, M3, M4, M5, M6, M7, M8, M9, M10, M11, M12, M13, M14, M15, M16, M17, M18, M19, M20, M21, M22, M23, M24, M25, M26, M27, M28, M29, M30, M31, M32, M33, M34, M35, M36, M37, M38, M39, M40 M1, M2, M3, M4, M5, M6, M7, M8, M9, M10, M11, M12, M13, M14, M15, M16, M17, M18, M19, M20, M21, M22, M23, M24, M25, M26, M27, M28, M29, M30, M31, M32, M33, M34, M35, M36, M37, M38, M39, M40 M1, M2, M3, M4, M5, M6, M7, M8, M9, M10, M11, M12, M13, M14, M15, M16, M17, M18, M19, M20M21, M22, M23, M24, M25, M26, M27, M28, M29, M30, M31, M32, M33, M34, M35, M36, M37, M38, M39, M40 M1, M2, M3, M4, M5, M6, M7, M8, M9, M10, M11, M12, M13, M14, M15, M16, M17, M18, M19, M20, M21, M22, M23, M24, M25, M26, M27, M28, M29, M30, M31, M32, M33, M34, M35, M36, M37, M38, M39, M40 81 predictive distribution maps / species

17. Dusky Flycatcher ~ Summer ~ Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California Simple example Model only

18. Dusky Flycatcher ~ Summer ~ Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California Simple example Model + Point localities

19. Dusky Flycatcher ~ Summer ~ Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California Simple example Model + California Wildlife Habitat Relations distribution map

20. Dusky Flycatcher ~ Summer ~ Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California Simple example Model + Point localities + California Wildlife Habitat Relations distribution map

21. Dusky Flycatcher ~ Summer ~ Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California Simple example Future probability of presence or absence: based on a doubling of atmospheric CO2

22. Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California How models relate to current distribution Yellow-billed Magpie Expert Habitat Climate

23. Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California How models relate to current distribution Black-billed Magpie Expert Habitat Climate

24. Black Skimmer 1966 - 1987 1988 - 2006 Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California Ability of models to “forecast” past changes in distribution

25. Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California • Scalability: Land-based Conservation • Tehachapi Mountains • Important Bird Area • Located at the southern • end of the Coastal • California Bird • Conservation Region

26. Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California • Major threats: Urban development • Need to preserve undeveloped woodlands on ridges Tehachapi Mountains

27. Tehachapi Mountains Olive-sided Flycatcher ~ Summer ~ Olive-sided Flycatcher Breeds in mixed-conifer forests found on ridge

28. Tehachapi Mountains Olive-sided Flycatcher ~ Summer ~ Olive-sided Flycatcher Climate-model correctly predicts OSFL on the ridge

29. Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California Emerging distributional responses to future climate change A few examples…

30. Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California California Quail

31. Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California Tricolored Blackbird

32. Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California Acorn Woodpecker

33. Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California California Gnatcatcher

34. Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California Yellow-billed Magpie

35. Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California Juniper Titmouse

36. Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California Dusky Flycatcher

37. Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California Olive-sided Flycatcher

38. Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California House Sparrow

39. Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California European Starling

40. Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California • Breeding Birds • 180 terrestrial • species in CA • Does not consider • new arrivals

41. Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California • Conclusions & Next Steps • Complete future scenarios • Parse results by conservation unit • Parse results by species groups • Make results archive freely available online Thanks to -- Citizen Scientists Dan Niven & Greg Butcher Packard Foundation