“Logic and rhetoric, or three points about theory"

“Logic and rhetoric, or three points about theory" New Zealand Airport Association 14 October 2009 Stuart Birks, Massey University

Logic and rhetoric • Logic  proof • Rhetoric  persuasion • Adam Smith on rhetoric • “Proof” in law is not proof • It is persuading a judge or jury • How much academic analysis is rhetoric?

Three main points about theories • Theories are just analogies. • Evidence does not prove the validity a theory. • Current wisdom is based on convention.

1. Analogies • Saxe and elephants

1. Analogies (cont.) • Theory as • paradigm (Kuhn) • analogy (‘as if’ alternative/simplified structure) • metaphor • frame • use of selection, emphasis, exclusion, elaboration

2. Evidence and proof • data and consistency • Friedman “Observed facts are necessarily finite in number; possible hypotheses, infinite. If there is one hypothesis that is consistent with the available evidence, there are always an infinite number that are.” • A significant result does not give the only possible explanation

3. Conventional wisdom • Current wisdom is based on convention • Galbraith - "conventional wisdom" • Kuhn - "normal science" ("best practice"?) • Hardin - "street-level epistemology”

In summary, we: • Accept many commonly held views as if well-founded; • Read a lot into simplified analyses; • Assume, by analogy, that structures apply to the real world; • Treat apparently plausible explanations as if they are the only explanations; • Also… • Use seriously flawed techniques and reasoning.

Theory B Empirical Analysis A C Real world

“Logic and rhetoric, or three points about theory“ New Zealand Airport Association 14 October 2009 Stuart Birks, Massey University

“Logic and rhetoric, or three points about theory"