A Platform Structure for Behavioral Models
This document outlines a methodology for creating computer models based on an analyst’s structured behavioral models. By incorporating values, beliefs, worldview, operational history, and perceived motivations, analysts can infer probable intentions and behavior of adversaries. The model utilizes statistical normal distributions to capture various inputs and assess decision processes effectively. These predictive models are vital for understanding adversary actions and enhancing decision-making in strategic contexts, such as war games.
A Platform Structure for Behavioral Models
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Presentation Transcript
A Platform Structure for Behavioral Models By Dr. E. L. Perry Northrop Grumman
Methodology for Analysis • Use • Values, beliefs, worldview • Operational history • Perceptions, motivations • Current capabilities • Situational factors • Decision processes • To infer probable intent and likely behavior
Methodology (2) • Use • Probable intent and likely behavior • Vulnerabilities • Susceptibilities • Accessibility • To create • Recommendations for decision maker
The Problem • Can we build a computer model from the analyst’s methodology? • Capture the input • Use it to predict and model the range of responses expected from this adversary • Use the model in war games
Motivation – Cultural Dimensions • Website for Geert Hofstede. http://www.geert-hofstede.com/ • Website for Fons Trompenaars and Charles Hampton-Turner. http://changingminds.org/explanations/culture/trompenaars_culture.htm
Inputs from the Analyst • Each input is a statistical normal distribution • Range for mean is -100 to 100 • Example: For the value of “life” input, a value of 100 would indicate a high value for human life, a value of 0 would indicate a neutral value for human life while a value of -100 would indicate a complete disregard for human life. • Uncertainty is 0 to 50 representing the 3-sigma uncertainty of the information • Example: If analyst inputs 0 for the mean value of a parameter with uncertainty of 50 then the computer model is a normal distribution with a mean of 0 and sigma of 50/3 = 16.66
A Decision Box • For each of the 42 coordinates define an upper (u) and lower (l) bound for the box on this coordinate -100 < l <= u < 100 The computer generates a random value from the distribution of each parameter. If all 42 values fall between the upper and lower bounds then the decision is “yes” otherwise it is “no.”
Summary • Developed a way for an analyst to build a computer model of an adversary using the normal analysis process • Models show the range of behavior expected from the adversary • Currently used in war games • Research continues toward a predictive model
