How will future climate changes affect water sources ? Results of a study in Norrbotten 2010

1. Howwill future climate changes affect water sources? • Results of a study in Norrbotten 2010 • Robert Jönsson • Vatten & Miljöbyrån, Luleå

2. The aim of the study • To evaluate local risks and vulnerabilities for water sources regarding climate change, considering: • All 14 main water sources in Norrbotten • The presumed climate in the period of 2050-2100 • The initiative to the project was taken by the Länsstyrelsen in Norrbotten (the county) according to the government bill En sammanhållenklimat- ochenergipolitik (Coherent climate and energy politics)

3. How the study was carried out Collection of back-ground material for eachunique water source Statistics of the futureclimate in Norrbotten(by SMHI) Compilation of possiblescenarios/consequences for the water sources Risk assessment Compilation of results Presentation

4. Main water sources in Norrbotten ground water 64 % surface water 36 %

5. Climatechanges in Norrbotten 2050-2100 • Increased precipitation • Precipitation increases with approx. 20-30% • Average runoff increases • Groundwater levels rise • Intense rain and rainstorms • Maximum precipitation during 7 days increases with 10-15% • Increased average temperature • Temperature increase in Sweden: 2,5-4,5 ˚C, in Norrbotten somewhat higher. • Vegetation periods get longer • Ice brake-ups come earlier

6. Possible consequences on water source of increased precipitation • Additional contribution of organic matter, particles, nutrients, pollutants from surface water and roads etc • Changed physical, chemical and biological situations • Increased risk of land slides

7. Possible consequences on water sources of intense rain and rainstorms • Increased levels of microbiological contaminations • Increased risk of waterborne infections • Increased levels of organic matter • Increased levels of different types of emissions • Emissions of different types of pollutants in the inflow area of water sources • Flooding of low situated installations

8. Possible consequences on water sources of increased average temperature • Risk for new waterborne and pathogenic virus, protozoans and parasites in the water systems • Changes in agriculture and foresting due to climate changes • Longer stratification periods • Larger part of the precipitation falls as rain and increased number of snow melting periods etc • Increased recreational activities on lakes • Toxic algae bloom • High water temperatures

9. Risk assessment • Risk assessment was made in two steps: • Risk assessment of existing potential contamination sources (2 cases: rainstorm/flood and increased runoff) • Risk assessment of possible consequences on water sources regarding climate changes

10. Results -Step 1, risk assessment existing potential contamination sources

11. Risk matrix, Step 2 • Risk- and vulnerability analysis made according to a method • recommended by the Swedish National Food Administration Green Simplified risk management – preventive actions (i.e. self-monitoring and deviation handling are to be maintained) Yellow Active risk management – preventive and/or preparing actions are to be considered Red Risk has to be reduced – preventive and/or preparing actions are necessary Black Urgent risk – preventive and/or preparing actions are to be taken immediately

12. Result Step 2 – Water sources in NorrbottenAffects of increased precipitation Green Simplified risk management – preventive actions (i.e. self-monitoring and deviation handling are to be maintained) Yellow Active risk management – preventive and/or preparing actions are to be considered Red Risk has to be reduced – preventive and/or preparing actions are necessary Black Urgent risk – preventive and/or preparing actions are to be taken immediately

13. Result Step 2 – Water sources in Norrbotten Affects of intense rain and rainstorms Green Simplified risk management – preventive actions (i.e. self-monitoring and deviation handling are to be maintained) Yellow Active risk management – preventive and/or preparing actions are to be considered Red Risk has to be reduced – preventive and/or preparing actions are necessary Black Urgent risk – preventive and/or preparing actions are to be taken immediately

14. Result Step 2 – Water sources in Norrbotten Affectsofincreased average temperature Green Simplified risk management – preventive actions (i.e. self-monitoring and deviation handling are to be maintained) Yellow Active risk management – preventive and/or preparing actions are to be considered Red Risk has to be reduced – preventive and/or preparing actions are necessary Black Urgent risk – preventive and/or preparing actions are to be taken immediately

15. Conclusion – largest risks for water sources in Norrbotten is pollution/contamination • Increased runoff – transportation of organic matter, nutrients pesticides etc from forestry and agriculture to the water sources • Diffuse pollution – slow process • Study trends – to act before it is too late! • Flooding – of low situated installations • Increased risks of microbiological contamination • Consider the location and the water treatment • Overflow from sewage plants and pumping stations • Urgent contamination – fast and serious process • Dimensioning considering new conditions

16. Conclusion • The method can be used as a tool for the municipalities in their continuing work with other water sources • The water supply in Norrbotten, as well as in the rest of Scandinavia, is facing many threats and risks, whereof the climate change is one that should be taken seriously

17. Thank you for your attention! • Robert Jönsson • robert@vmbyran.se