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Minnesota’s Changing Labor Market

Minnesota’s Changing Labor Market. Rachel Vilsack Regional Analysis & Outreach Manager Labor Market Information Office. Labor Market Information (LMI) Office.

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Minnesota’s Changing Labor Market

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  1. Minnesota’s Changing Labor Market Rachel Vilsack Regional Analysis & Outreach Manager Labor Market Information Office

  2. Labor Market Information (LMI) Office • LMI Office supports state workforce and economic development systems by producing and disseminating data, key indicators, analysis, and trends on the economy, workforce, job market, and business community. • LMI Office’s high quality information advises policy makers on current and future economic trends, helps employers make informed business decisions, and assists individuals in making strong career choices.

  3. Minnesota job trend overview • Employment is growing • 63,130 more jobs compared to last August • Regained all jobs lost during the recession, plus 5,100 jobs • Unemployment rate at 5.1% in August • Compared to a 7.3% rate in the United States • Other positive signs • Minnesota has the 6th best ratio of job seekers to online job postings. • Employment services topped 70,000 jobs for the first time ever. Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development & The Conference Board

  4. Over-the-year regional trends in Minnesota, August 2013 Data are August 2012 to August 2013. Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development

  5. Minnesota industry trends Data are August 2012 to August 2013. Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development

  6. Job openings in Minnesota are expanding Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development

  7. Minnesota job openings by industry Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development

  8. Top 12 occupations with the most openings in Minnesota • Retail salespersons • Fast food workers • Landscaping workers • Heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers • Nursing assistants • Cashiers • Waiters and waitresses • Hairstylists • LPNs • Sales representatives, wholesale and manufacturing • Personal care aides • Freight, stock and material movers Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development

  9. Regional snapshot Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development

  10. What do unemployment rates measure? • The unused and available resources in the labor force – in this case, people who want to work, are available to work, and actively seeking work • Unemployment rates do notinclude people whoare not engaged in job-seeking behavior • Discouraged job seekers • Individuals with a temporary barrier • A business can’t tell us who is unemployed, so we measure unemployment rates through household surveys

  11. Minnesota and U.S. unemployment rates Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development

  12. Regional unemployment rates Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development

  13. ‘Official’ unemployment is only part of the story in Minnesota Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development

  14. Unemployment trends in 2013 • Large number of long-term unemployed individuals • The number of unemployed for 27 weeks or more averaged 54,600 in 2012. • Evidence of a racial disparity in unemployment • The black unemployment rate is two times higher than the white unemployment rate. • Difficulty faced by teens and young adults in finding employment • Unemployment rate for teens (age 16 to 19) was 18.6% in Minnesota in 2012.

  15. Forecasting future job trends • Minnesota’s economy will grow by 13%, or 368,000 new jobs, between 2010 and 2020. • Over 663,000 new workers will be needed to take jobs left vacant through retirements and replacements. • Employment changes depend on the demand for goods and services, productivity advances, technological innovations, and shifts in business practices. mn.gov/deed/eo Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development

  16. New job growth by region, 2010-2020 Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development

  17. Assumptions • Recovery from the steep job losses experienced between 2008 and 2010 will boost job growth in Minnesota during the next few years, but job growth will slow. • Job growth over the next decade will average 1.3% a year, a pace similar to job growth experienced in 2011. • The key macroeconomic assumptions driving the 2010-2020 national industry projections are: • GDP growth will average 3.0 % annually • Productivity growth will slow • U.S. labor force growth will slow • Unemployment will average 5.2% in 2020 Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development

  18. Health care will add the most new jobs in Minnesota between 2010 and 2020 Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development

  19. Office and sales occupations will need the largest numbers of workers Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development

  20. Minnesota’s fastest growing occupations, 2010 to 2020 • Electricians • Diagnostic medical sonographers • Interpreters and translators • Mental health counselors • Meeting, convention and events planners • Physical therapists • Market research analysts • EMTs and paramedics • Sheet metal workers • Medical secretaries • Medical scientists • Physician assistants • Veterinary technologists • Biomedical engineers • Personal care aides • Helpers – construction • Home health aides • Marriage and family therapists • Brickmasonsand blockmasons • Veterinarians • Plumbers • HVAC mechanics and installers • Cement masons • Cost estimators Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development

  21. Minnesota occupations adding the most jobs, 2010 to 2020 • Business operations specialists • Janitors and cleaners • Sales representatives, manufacturing • Receptionists and information clerks • LPNs • Agricultural managers • Nursing assistants • Teacher assistants • Stock clerks • Retail sales supervisors • Retail salespersons • Personal care aides • Cashiers • Home health aides • Waiters and waitresses • Registered nurses • Fast food workers • Office clerks, general • Customer service representatives • Childcare workers • Heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers • Freight, stock and material movers Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development

  22. Typical training requirements • Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) provides information on what is needed to enter and to attain competency in an occupation. • The system allows an occupation to be assigned to multiple education/work experience categories. • Economists used information from national surveys to look at workers’ educational attainment by occupation, and O*NET, which asks workers and occupational experts questions related to education, work experience, and training.

  23. Employment distribution by educational level for Minnesota, 2010 & 2020 Prerequisite educational levels from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development

  24. By educational level, the percentage of jobs that meet a basic needs budget for… Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development

  25. Percent of jobs paying less than $9.50 Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development

  26. Occupation groups with the highest percentage of jobs paying under $9.50 Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development

  27. What about claims of a growing educational gap by 2020? • In Recovery: Job Growth and Education Requirements Through 2020, the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce claim that: • By 2020, we will need 26 million new workers with college degrees—but will fall short of that number by at least 5 million postsecondary degrees • 74% of all jobs in Minnesota (2.3 million jobs) will require some postsecondary training beyond high school in 2020

  28. Compare “needs” to current educational attainment of MN adults, 2012 Educational attainment computed for the adult (age 25 and over) population. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey

  29. Skills gap debate • A skills gap is the difference between the skill levels of the available workforce and the skills necessary to meet job requirements. • Skills gaps are not synonymous with hiring difficulties. • Hiring difficulties may be a lack of qualified candidates who apply for a job. • Aside from lacking skills, there may be many reasons why qualified candidates don’t apply for jobs.

  30. The only reminder you’ll have of economics class today Wage Supply Upward Wage Pressure W VacanciesPressure on HoursDemand Employment QS QD

  31. “Difficult to fill” stems from… • Supply-side factors: Hiring difficulties caused by a mismatch between job requirements and the training, skills, and experience of applicants. • Demand-side factors: Hiring difficulties caused by problems that are unrelated to candidates’ qualifications, such as unattractive work hours, inadequate compensation, geographic location of position, and ineffective recruiting.

  32. Share of vacancies reported as “difficult to fill” by occupation group Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development

  33. “Difficult to hire” production jobs by region, Spring 2013 Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development

  34. Factors perceived by employers as contributing to hiring difficulties Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development

  35. Where are the hiring difficulties? • Jobs requiring intermediate work experience from one to three years. • Jobs requiring no post-secondary education. • Regions in Greater Minnesota experienced geographic mismatches at rates similar to the Twin Cities.

  36. Skills in demand • Leadership and project management skills, with the ability to apply those skills in a team context • Stronger critical-thinking and problem-solving skills to apply technical information to real life situations • \ • Strong multitasking and time-management abilities • \ • Adaptability • Interpersonal communication and conflict resolution • Motivated, trainable, and willing to engage in lifelong learning

  37. New LMI products in 2014 • “Better LMI” • Workforce supply and demand • Educational attainment of workers and employment outcomes of recent graduates by program of study • Cost of Living • Link basic needs budget to hourly pay and current/future job opportunities • Statewide report and regional/county-level analysis

  38. Other LMI products and publications Minnesota Economic TRENDS • Quarterly magazine on economic topics • Subscriptions available free of charge or on-line Minnesota Employment REVIEW • Monthly magazine on economic data and regional trends • Available exclusively on-line mn.gov/deed/trends mn.gov/deed/review

  39. Let me know how I can help Rachel Vilsack Regional Analysis & Outreach Manager Labor Market Information Office Phone: (651) 259-7403 rachel.vilsack@state.mn.us

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