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Housing and the Economy: Consumer Sentiment and Market Indicators

This report analyzes consumer sentiment and market indicators related to housing and the economy, including consumer expectations, retail sales, employment, inflation, and interest rates.

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Housing and the Economy: Consumer Sentiment and Market Indicators

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  1. HOUSING AND THE ECONOMYRoger TutterowProfessor of EconomicsKennesaw State University June 20, 2018

  2. HBA/BDL QUARTERLYREPORT – June 2018 METROPOLITAN ATLANTA CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY

  3. Consumer Sentiment(source: University of Michigan, Survey Research Center)

  4. CONSUMER SENTIMENT

  5. CONSUMER SENTIMENT: ATL

  6. Better off or worse off than you were one year ago? (Index = up – down + 50)

  7. Will you be better off or worse off in one year? (Index = up – down + 50)

  8. Over the next 12 months will we have GOOD times or BAD times? (Index = up – down + 50)

  9. Over the next five years, will we have ....? (Index = up – down + 50)

  10. Is it a good time or a bad time to purchase a major household appliance? (Index = up – down + 50)

  11. Are you worried about your job security? (Index = up – down + 50)

  12. Over the next 12 months, will interest rates go UP, go DOWN, or remain the SAME? (Index = up – down + 50)

  13. Over the next 12 months, will prices rise faster, slower or at the same rate? (Index = up – down + 50)

  14. Over the next 12 months, will your income rise more than prices, less than prices, or stay about the same? (Index = up – down + 50)

  15. Do you think the unemployment rate will go up, down, or stay the same ? (Index = up – down + 50)

  16. In general, is it a GOOD time or BAD time to purchase a house? (Index = up – down + 50)

  17. Will Conditions for Buying a House be Better, Worse or the Same IN 6 MONTHS? (Index = up – down + 50)

  18. HOME BUYING PREMIUM

  19. Some Reflections on the Current Environment:THE NATIONAL PICTURE

  20. Expansion Getting Tired?(Source: National Bureau Economic Research

  21. Contributions To GDP Growth (Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis)

  22. ISM’s “PMI”(Source: Institute of Supply Management)

  23. Foreign Exchange: Trading Partners(Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System)

  24. Foreign Exchange: US/China(Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System)

  25. Consumer Sentiment(source: University of Michigan, Survey Research Center)

  26. Comments from Curtin(source: Richard Curtin, Director of Survey of Consumers, February 2017) “the gain represents the result of an unprecedented partisan divergence, with Democrats expecting recession and Republicans expecting robust growth” “overall gain in the Expectations Index was due to self-identified Independents, who were much closer to the optimism of the Republicans than the pessimism of the Democrats” “the February Expectations Index was 55.5 among Democrats, 120.1 among Republicans, and 89.2 among Independents”

  27. Retail Sales(source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, annual rate of growth)

  28. Auto & Light Truck Sales – H&I Effect(Source: Department of Commerce, in millions)

  29. Auto Inventory(Source: Department of Commerce)

  30. Leading Economic Indicators(source: Conference Board, % change in last 6 months)

  31. Change in Payroll Employment (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)

  32. State Employment (Job Loss)(source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)

  33. State Employment (Net Change)(source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)

  34. US Employment Shift by Sector (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)

  35. GA Employment Shift by Sector: L12M (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)

  36. Employment: Georgia

  37. Employment: Atlanta(Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)

  38. Labor Force Participation

  39. Labor Force Participation

  40. Prices: Still talk of Deflation/Inflation?(source: Bureau of Labor Statistics) • CPI fell by 0.1% in March after having been up by 0.2% and 0.25% in February and January. • Core CPI rose 0.2% in March – after rising by 0.2% and 0.3% in two previous months. • Overall CPI up 2.4% over last 12 months. Core up 2.1% over same period. • Energy component was down 2.8% last month and up by 7.0% over the last 12 months

  41. Prices: Still talk of Deflation/Inflation?(source: Bureau of Labor Statistics) • CPI rose by 0.2% in April after having been down by 0.1% and up by 0.2% in March and February. • Core CPI rose 0.1% in March – after rising by 0.2% and 0.2% in two previous months. • Overall CPI up 2.5% over last 12 months. Core up 2.1% over same period. • Energy component was up by1.4% last month and up by 7.9% over the last 12 months

  42. Crude Oil: West Texas Intermediate(Source: US Energy Information Administration)

  43. Natural Gas: Henry Hub Spot(Source: US Energy Information Administration)

  44. Construction Cost w/o Energy(Source: BLS PPI & ABC)

  45. Federal Funds RateShort Rates Finally Start Moving (Source: Board of Governors of Federal Reserve System)

  46. Market’s FFR Outlook(Source: CME Group)

  47. 10-Year Treasury Bonds(Source: Board of Governors of Federal Reserve System)

  48. “PIIGS Revisited”(Source: European Central Bank)

  49. Large Scale Asset Purchases(source: Federal Reserve System) • QE1 (March 2009) • $1.25 T in MBS • $200B in Agencies • $300M in Treasuries • QE2 (November 2010) • $600B in Treasuries • Operation Twist • Swapped $667B in longs for shorts • QE3 (September 2012) • $85B/month agency MBS & Treasuries • Taper begins December 2012

  50. Fed: Securities Held Outright

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