Hyogo Framework for Action – 2005-2015

The Roadmap towards the development of the Post-2015 framework for disaster risk reduction (HFA2)25 June 2014

Hyogo Framework for Action – 2005-2015 HFA Expected Outcome “The substantial reduction of disaster losses, in lives and in the social, economic and environmental assets of communities and countries.”

Reality Check 1 Mortality is decreasing, but economic losses are increasing.

…more people exposed to hazards… Human exposure to tropical cyclone is increasing for most sub-regions

…and typhoons are getting stronger… The number of recorded categories 4 and 5 typhoons increasing

… however, mortality risks are decreasing – less people are dying! Cyclone - Relative mortality risk trend For hydro-meteorological hazards, mortality risks are decreasing for some sub-regions

Economic losses increasing…

…losses in high and upper-middle income countries larger… Development was unable to reduce risks, and may drive its growth

Reality Check 1 Mortality is decreasing, but economic losses are increasing.

Reality Check 2 Risks are not externalities to development. Mal development makes climate change deadlier.

The Philippines has one of the fastest-growing populations in Asia. The population is set to jump by almost 70 percent over the next 40 years, and HSBC believes the combination of its powerful demographics and strong fundamentals will drive the economy to become the world’s 16th largest by 2050. That would mark a jump of 27 places from its current ranking of 43. HSBC “ The World in 2050” Economic growth drives…

…increasing exposure of people… Urban growth in Metro Manila

49 million houses and USD 10 trillion property exposed • In addition, 1,355 building permits are issued per day …increasing economic exposure…

...creating a large unfunded disaster liability… Annual expected loss due to disasters, as % of GDP (source: WB) Indonesia’s budget on disaster risk reduction

...leading to increased economic loss due to exposure growth... • Climate change alone will likely double worldwide losses by 2100 • Catastrophe losses will likely double every 10 years due to increases in construction costs, the number of structures and changes in their characteristics –exclusive of any effect of climate change Source: AIR Worldwide

...exacerbated by climate change. Building code in Philippines = 150 kph design wind speed Typhoon Haiyan = 300 kph sustained wind speed, gusts up to 370 kph

Reality Check 2 Risks are not externalities to development. Mal development makes climate change deadlier.

HFA2 Challenges • Preventing the creation of new risk by the adoption of risk-informed growth and development pathways that minimise increase in exposure and vulnerability. • Reducing existing risk by actions that address and reduce exposure and vulnerability. • Strengthen resilience by socio and economic measures that enable countries and people to absorb loss, minimise impact and recover.

HFA2 Opportunities • Influence the development of new frameworks, regulations and incentives • Preventing the creation of new risk – encode risks in new investment decisions. • Reducing existing risk – promote investments that will reduce vulnerability to address huge stocks of risks. • Strengthen resilience – promote wider coverage of risk insurance.

2015 Roadmap • UNSG Climate Summit – September 2014, NY • World Conference on DRR – Disaster risk management agenda - March 2015, Sendai • UN General Assembly – Sustainable development and growth agenda – September 2015, NY • Climate Change Conference of Parties Meeting Climate change agenda – December 2015, Paris

Hyogo Framework for Action – 2005-2015