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Consumer Discretionary

Consumer Discretionary. July 17, 2007 Haixia Ji Jaime Nale Adam Robertson Hui Song. S&P 500 Composition as of 07/06/07. Industry Breakdown as of 06/30/07. Top 10 Holdings as of 07/15/07. Select Sector SPDR’s Composition and Returns YTD as of 06/30/07. Business Analysis.

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Consumer Discretionary

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  1. Consumer Discretionary July 17, 2007 Haixia Ji Jaime Nale Adam Robertson Hui Song

  2. S&P 500 Composition as of 07/06/07

  3. Industry Breakdown as of 06/30/07

  4. Top 10 Holdingsas of 07/15/07

  5. Select Sector SPDR’s Composition and Returns YTDas of06/30/07

  6. Business Analysis • Mature Sector • Foreign Influence

  7. Cyclicality

  8. Seasonality

  9. Economic Analysis • Changes in the Federal Funds Rate

  10. Economic Analysis • Unemployment

  11. Economic Analysis • Discretionary Income

  12. Economic Analysis • Gasoline Prices

  13. Economic Analysis

  14. Economic Analysis

  15. Economic Analysis • Mixed indications • Federal Funds Rate • Strong Unemployment Figures • Discretionary Income Growing • Gasoline Appears Overpriced • Encouraging Potential

  16. Financial Analysis

  17. S&P 500 Financial Analysis

  18. Income Statement Annual

  19. Income Statement Qtr.

  20. Cash Flow Annual

  21. Financial Analysis

  22. Valuation Analysis 10-years

  23. Valuation Analysis 10-years

  24. Valuation Analysis 10-years • Currently all measures of valuation is relative higher than the 10 years average • All five graphs show the same upward trend since 2000, but the plots do show the contract sign this year. • The whole sector is inline to overpriced relative to the market.

  25. Recommendations • Sector should be even-weighted instead of 100 Basis Points underweight • Currently inline to slightly expensive when compared to S&P 500 • Positive economic outlook

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