Energy Research Opportunities in an Era of Carbon Constraint

1. Energy Research Opportunities in an Era of Carbon Constraint Sustainable Energy Forum www.sef.org.nz Convenor - Tim Jones

2. Presentation Overview • Energy Research - an NGO view • An Era of Constraint • A Transitional Energy System • Energy Research Implications • Model, Measure, Modify • Conclusion

3. SEF - An Energy NGO • About 150 members - individuals, many small energy businesses, some corporate • Goal to “facilitate the use of energy for economic, environmental and social sustainability” • Covers both stationary and transport energy • Other energy/climate NGOs include national, local/regional, sectoral e.g. NZWEA

4. An Era of Constraint There have always been constraints on our energy system. But now carbon provides the key constraints: • On supply: the uncertain state of the supply of fossil carbon - future world supplies of oil, gas, even coal called into question - first by NGOs such as ASPO; now even the IEA is getting in on the act • On emissions: the limits on the ecosystem’s ability to absorb the byproducts of our consumption of fossil carbon are rapidly being reached • Our current energy system has not developed with these constraints in mind.

5. A Transitional Energy System • SEF has submitted that the New Zealand Energy Strategy should be designed to manage our energy system's transition to one that is appropriate for a carbon-constrained world. • The overarching task of Government energy, land use and climate change policy should be to design an environmentally, socially and economically sustainable energy system that can operate within these carbon constraints.

6. Energy Research Implications (1) • Demand is as important as supply • We should provide energy services by other means if this lowers fossil carbon use - e.g. in transport, how much access to “transport” services can we provide by other means? Examples: • University of Canterbury work - e.g. “Energy Risk to Activity Systems as a Function of Urban Form” • Transpower Demand Side Participation trial in upper South Island

7. Energy Research Implications (2) • Increasing resilience through increased distribution, diversification and localisation of energy systems requires research that starts from the needs of specific communities. For example: • “Going off the grid”: energy self-sufficiency for rural communities • Increasing energy resilience for larger communities, e.g. Sustainable Dunedin project

8. Energy Research Implications (3) Energy research as a part of interdisciplinary research projects, e.g. • Looking at the relationship between social factors and energy prices in transport choices • Looking at the effects of “fuel poverty” and ways of mitigating this in an era of carbon constraint • Looking at potential areas of co-benefit e.g. the role that biochar might play in increasing soil carbon sequestration, forestry and agricultural productivity, and the production of biofuels

9. Model, Measure, Modify • Changes in energy policy carry the risk of unintended consequences. To mitigate against these, we should: • model the effect of policies and developments in advance • measure the effect of implementing policies and developments • modify strategies and policies in the light of evidence. • But both our modelling and our measurement capacity are inadequate to the task. More and better research capacity is needed in both areas. • Modelling by itself isn’t enough. There’s no substitute for actual end-use data e.g. HEEP

10. Conclusion • We face an era of constraint on our traditional energy supplies and on the byproducts of fossil energy use • This requires changes in policy and practice in the transition to a system that operates within the Earth’s biophysical constraints • In such a situation, it’s very easy to make bad choices and “pick winners” that turn out to be losers • Detailed, quality research can help guard against this • But this also requires that policy-makers pay attention to the results of the research.