Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal

1. Energy in the 21st Century: Some of the Hard Choices facing us Worker’s Educational Association Norwich: April 17th 2010 Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal • Keith Tovey (杜伟贤) M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv • School of Environmental Sciences/ Norwich Business School:University of East Anglia

2. Energy in the 21st Century • Global Overview • The UK situation • Awareness Raising - involving the community • The UK’s current performance on the road to a Low Carbon Future.

3. Energy in the 21st Century Practically Achievable: Renewable Energy:- • 0.01 TW - Tidal (i.e. 0.01 – 0.1 TW) • 0.1 TW - Geothermal; OTEC; Biomass; Wastes • 1 TW - Hydro; Wind; Waves • 10TW – Solar 1 TeraWatt (TW) = 1 billion kW Life Span of Fossil Fuels Decades: Oil, Gas 235U Tar Sands, Oil Shales Centuries: Coal, Geothermal, D-T Fusion 238U, 232Th Millenia: D – D Fusion Conservation is vital for a Sustainable Renewable Future in the Long Term

4. Consumption of Oil is outstripping new finds

5. There is a looming Gas Shortage in the UK Import Gap On 13th Jan 2010: UK Production was only 41%: 14% from storage and 44% imports

6. What isthe magnitude of the CO2 problem? How does UK compare with other countries? Why do some countries emit more CO2 than others? France UK Per capita Carbon Emissions 6

7. Carbon Factors for different modes of electricity generation In UK, Coal ~ 900 gms/kWh, oil ~ 800+ gms/kWh CCGT ~ 400 gms/kWh Nuclear ~ 10 gms/kWh: Overall ~ 520 – 530 gms/kWh

8. Carbon Capture and Sequestration • Could provide a solution for the medium / long term – i.e. 15+ years time • Demonstration scheme in Germany 30 MW since 2008, • China also has an operating 30 MW scheme • UK Government hopes to have four 300 MW demonstration schemes operating by 2015/16 • But • UK has 59000MW of fossil fuel power stations – i.e. 600 times the demonstration schemes • Will increase fossil fuel burn by 20 -40% - i.e. for every four power stations an extra is needed to support the CCS plant • Will do little to help situation over next decade. • Various methods potentially available • pre combustion - removing nitrogen in air before combustion • post combustion – separating CO2 from other exhaist gases.

9. Carbon Emissions and Electricity UK France 9

10. Electricity Generation in selected Countries r

11. Energy in the 21st Century • Global Overview • The UK situation- Electricity • Awareness Raising • The UK’s current performance on the road to a Low Carbon Future.

12. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods Langeled and Balzand Pipe Lines completed UK becomes net importer of gas in 2004 Price projected by Government for Gas generation in 2020 12

13. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods Nuclear New Build assumes one new station is completed each year after 2018. Carbon sequestration either by burying it or use methanolisation as a new transport fuel will not be available at scale required until mid 2020s 13

14. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 – Onshore Wind • 10 first generation turbines at Blood Hill have a total capacity of 2250 kW • The single neighbouring turbine at Somerton – 1500 kW but generates much more electricity than the 10 combined. • Swaffham 1 providesON AVERAGE sufficient power for 900 homes. • Latest generation are 3000 kW each

15. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 – Offshore Wind Scroby Sands had a Load factor of 25.8% but nevertheless produced sufficient electricity on average for 60% needs of houses in Norwich. At Peak time sufficient for all houses in Norwich and Ipswich 15

16. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Hydro Micro Hydro Scheme operating on Siphon Principle installed at Itteringham Mill, Norfolk. Rated capacity 5.5 kW

17. Solar PhotoVoltaic Electricty Area required to supply 5% of UK electricity needs ~ 400 sq km - But energy needed to make PV takes up to 10 years to pay back in UK.

18. Solar PhotoVoltaic Electricty • Poly - crystalline • ~ 60 – 80 kWh / sqm / annum Typical test bed efficiencies 15 – 16% for mono-crystalline - theoretically up to 30%, but practical efficiencies after inversion in real situations ~ 10 – 12% Mono - crystalline ~ 80 – 100 kWh / sqm / annum Thin film ~ 60 – 70 kWh / sqm / annum 18

19. Efficiency of Solar PhotoVoltaic Electricty Poly-crystalline Cell Efficiency Mono-crystalline Cell Efficiency • Peak Cell efficiency is ~ 9.5%. • Average efficiency over year is 7.5% • Peak Cell efficiency is ~ 14% and close to standard test bed efficiency. • Most projections of performance use this efficiency • Average efficiency over year is 11.1% Inverter Efficiencies reduce overall system efficiencies to 10.1% and 6.73% respectively

20. Overall Performance of Photo Voltaic Arrays in ZICER Inverters are only 91% efficient Most use is for computers DC power packs are inefficient typically less than 60% efficient An integrated approach is needed to ensure best performance

21. Arrangement of Cells on Facade Individual cells are connected horizontally Cells active Cells inactive even though not covered by shadow If individual cells are connected vertically, only those cells actually in shadow are affected. As shadow covers one column all cells are inactive 21 21 21 21 21

22. Solar PhotoVoltaic Electricty Photovoltaic cells are expensive, but integration of ideas is needed. Output depends on type but varies from ~70kWh to ~100kWh per square meter per year. The New Feed In Tariff form April 1st will make things more attractive. 41p per unit generated – an extra 3p if exported. But those who have installed PV will get the benefit from increased payments for electricity by those who have not. 22

23. Solar Energy Centralised Solar Power PS10 Solar Tower Seville, Spain 11 MW Capacity 23

24. Biofuels/Biomass • Transport Fuels: • Biodiesel? • Bioethanol? • Compressed gas from • methane from waste. But Land Area required is very large - the area of Norfolk and Suffolk would be needed to generate just over 5% of UK electricity needs.

25. Wave Energy Options for Electricity Generation Pelamis There are numerous designs, but expertise in wave power is spread very thinly

26. Wave Energy Options for Electricity Generation Oyster under test at Bilia Croo Oyster 26

27. Tidal Energy – The Resource Tidal Resource kW/m2 <0.01 0.01 2.90 Resource is measured in terms of kW/m2 of vertical column of water 27

28. Tidal Stream Options for Electricity Generation

29. Tidal Power – Barrage de la Rance, St Malo The Sluice Gates One of 24 turbines Vortices created during generation at La Rance 29

30. Tidal Power – Some Proposed Schemes for the Severn Newport Beachley Barrage Shoots Barrage Cardiff Cardiff – Weston Barrage Bristol Minehead – Aberthaw Barrage Weston Cardiff - Hinkley Barrage Minehead 30

31. Tidal Barrage Options for Electricity Generation Churchill Barrier each could provide Output 78 GWh per annum - Sufficient for 13500 houses in Orkney but there are only 4000 in Orkney. Controversy in bringing cables south Save 40000 tonnes of CO2

32. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Geothermal

33. Our Choices: They are difficult • Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass?. • Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 20 years. • If our answer is NO • Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power ? • Are we happy on this and the other attendant risks? • If our answer is NO • Do we want to return to using coal? • then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly • unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years UNLIKELY If our answer to coal is NO Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>

34. Our Choices: They are difficult • If our answer is YES • By 2020 • we will be dependent on GAS • for around 70% of our heating and electricity • imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria • Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>> • If not: • We need even more substantial cuts in energy use. • Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field? Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables? Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.

35. Our looming over-dependence on gas for electricity generation We need an integrated energy supply which is diverse and secure. We need to take Energy out of Party Politics.!

36. Involve the local Community -The BroadSol Project Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004 Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh Members of community agreed to purchase Solar Panels at same time. Significantly reduced costs

37. Technical Solutions: Solar Thermal Energy Up to 15 installations were monitored at 5 miute intervals for periods up to 15 months Mean Monthly Solar gain for 11 systems 3 panel systems Some 2 panel systems captured twice the energy in summer months as other 2 panel systems.. 37

38. It is all very well for South East, but what about the North? House on Westray, Orkney exploiting passive solar energy from end of February House in Lerwick, Shetland Isles with Solar Panels - less than 15,000 people live north of this in UK! 38

39. Involve the local Community Even better things are happening on the Island of Westray. The Parish Kirk, and Community Centre are heated by heat Pumps partly powered by Wind Turbines Waste cooking oil from other islands is processed into biodiesel for farm and other vehicles. Ethanol used in process is obtained from fermentation of harvested sea weed 39

40. Energy in the 21st Century • Global Overview • The UK situation - Electricity • Awareness Raising • The UK’s current performance on the road to a Low Carbon Future.

41. On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year. How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks like? 5 hot air balloons per person per year. "Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little." Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)

42. Raising Awareness At Gao’an No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai 上海徐汇区高第一小学 • A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine. Using it 5 times a week will cost ~ £100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO2. • 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon. • A Mobile Phone charger: > 10 kWh per year • ~ 500 balloons each year. • Standby on electrical appliances • up to 20 - 150+ kWh a year - 7500 balloons. (up to £15 a year) • A Toyota Corolla (1400cc): 1 party balloon every 60m. • Filling up with petrol (~£50 for a full tank – 40 litres) • --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon) How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for1 hour? 1.6 miles School children at the Al Fatah University, Tripoli, Libya

43. Data courtesy of Karla Alcantar • Social Attitudes have a profound effect on actual electricity consumption • For a given size of household electricity consumption for appliances [NOT HEATING or HOT WATER or COOKING] can vary by as much as 9 times. • Significant savings in money can arise from effective awareness raising • When income levels are accounted for, variation is still 6 times 43

44. Energy in the 21st Century • Global Overview • The UK situation • Awareness Raising • The UK’s current performance on the road to a Low Carbon Future.

45. Average Domestic Consumption of Electricity • Raising awareness on energy use will save money • UK average is 4478 kWh per year at a cost of around £530 • Norwich average is 3535 kWh and is 6th best out of 408 Councils • Uttlesford average is 5884 kWh and is 396th out of 408 • NK Tovey’s average in a four bedroomed detached house is • <2250 kWh per year to 31st March 2010 [50% of National Average] • a reduction of 25% compared to on 18 months ago. • On average • Norwich – consumers will be paying 79% of National average • Uttlesford – consumers will be paying 131% of National average

46. Average Domestic Consumption of Electricity • Consumption of Electricity in selected Local Authority in East of England • % cost compared to National Average • Rank position in UK out of 408 Local Authorities In Norwich average household emits 1.9 tonnes of CO2 In Uttlesford 3.1tonnes of CO2

47. Proportion of Electricity Generated by Renewables

48. Proportion of Electricity Generated by Renewables 48

49. Conclusions And Finally “If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading.” There are many exciting options for a sustainable low carbon energy system We need to address both the short term and long term objectives The UK is facing an energy security issue in the next decade There needs to be a much more integrated approach to energy supply Long term decision making is needed – longer than the life time of a Parliament We need to take Energy out of short term Party Politics LaoTzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher