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WUP-FIN2 socio - economic and policy analysis

WUP-FIN2 socio - economic and policy analysis. WUP-FIN2 Introductory Training – Bangkok MARKO KESKINEN & OLLI VARIS. PRESENTATION OUTLINE. 1. Introduction 2. Methodologies for socio-economic analysis 3. Work in Nam Songkram (and in Vientiane Area) 4. Interactive discussion.

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WUP-FIN2 socio - economic and policy analysis

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  1. WUP-FIN2 socio-economicand policy analysis WUP-FIN2 Introductory Training – Bangkok MARKO KESKINEN & OLLI VARIS

  2. PRESENTATION OUTLINE 1. Introduction 2. Methodologies for socio-economic analysis 3. Work in Nam Songkram (and in Vientiane Area) 4. Interactive discussion INTRODUCTION METHODOLOGIES NAM SONGKRAM DISCUSSION

  3. IWRM WATER MANAGEMENT • Water management is much more than managing water  includes also environment & people (+politics!)  multidisciplinary & interdisciplinary approach with participatory aspect is essential  but how to integrate the diverse information? • Changed demands for water management mean that water modelling has to change, too  better linking with society & greater participation INTRODUCTION METHODOLOGIES NAM SONGKRAM DISCUSSION

  4. WATER & SOCIETY • Socio-economic analysis within a water modelling project?  to link modelling & water with local people • to widen the approach from modelling to impact assessment  to make maximum use of models • But just carrying out the analysis is not enough: it has to be tightly integrated with modelling  perhaps most demanding task INTRODUCTION METHODOLOGIES NAM SONGKRAM DISCUSSION

  5. PROBLEMS & NEEDS RELATED TO WATER SOCIO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS LOCAL PEOPLE & THEIR LIVELIHOOD WATER MODELLING HELP & ANSWERS TO PROBLEMS • ”Modelling that is better connected to real world & local level” • Facilitates solving of water-related problems • Helps to link modelling to management & decision making

  6. Policy Analysis of Lower Mekong Basin OBJECTIVE & FOCUS AREAS • To support the MRC and national institutions in water-related socio-economic & policy analysis  close cooperation with above institutions essential! • Focus areas • Tonle Sap • Mekong Delta • Vientiane Area in Lao PDR • Nam Songkram watershed INTRODUCTION METHODOLOGIES NAM SONGKRAM DISCUSSION

  7. s-e analysis policy analysis METHODOLOGIES • Methodologies used in the s-e analysis: (example from the Tonle Sap Lake, Cambodia) • Participatory village survey & interviews • Analysis of socio-economic databases (GIS) • Policy analysis with WUP-FIN Policy Models (based on Bayesian Networks) INTRODUCTION METHODOLOGIES NAM SONGKRAM DISCUSSION

  8. Analysis according to topographic zones in GIS SOCIO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS 1) Database analysis in GIS 2) Village surveys & interviews • Two levels: local & regional LOCAL LEVEL: water-related links & problems REGIONAL LEVEL: impact analysis & decision making knowledge analysis support integration • Two phases: analysis & integration INTRODUCTION METHODOLOGIES NAM SONGKRAM DISCUSSION

  9. TOPOGRAPHIC ZONING • Tonle Sap study area arranged into five zones according to topography (+urbanisation)  Makes analysis and linking with the models easier: Water does not follow administrative boundaries! • Zone 1: 0 - 6 metres • Zone 2: 6 - 8 metres • Zone 3: 8 - 10 metres • Zone 4: 10 metres to National Roads • Zone 5: Urban areas INTRODUCTION METHODOLOGIES NAM SONGKRAM DISCUSSION

  10. Examples fromTonle Sap DATABASE ANALYSIS • Databases give access to extensive (albeit often biased) quantitative information • First: review of existing databases • Census 1998 • Fishing Household Survey 1996 • Topographic database (Certeza) • Other databases • Then: construction of own GIS-based database that arranges information according to different topographic zones  database analysis according to zones INTRODUCTION METHODOLOGIES NAM SONGKRAM DISCUSSION

  11. Area of Zone 1 very big Population in Zones 3,4 and 5 very high Small amount of ethnic minorities Share of Vietnamese in Zone 1 remarkable INTRODUCTION METHODOLOGIES NAM SONGKRAM DISCUSSION Information derived from Census 1998 and Fishing Household Survey 1995-96

  12. VILLAGE SURVEYS & INTERVIEWS • Qualitative and up-to-date village-level information but extremely small sample size • Based on participatory methods (RRA/PRA) • Complemented and contradicted databases ”To see behind the numbers” • Grassroots level information on actual water-related benefits, problems and needs ”Make local people’s voice heard” • Also more quantitative survey/interview methods (questionnaires) applicable INTRODUCTION METHODOLOGIES NAM SONGKRAM DISCUSSION

  13. SURVEY METHODS • Key informant interview • Group discussion • Participatory mapping • Transect walk and observation • Seasonal calendar and occupational preference ranking • Time ranking • Focus group discussion and rankings on migration & urbanisation • Final discussion and analysis of the study INTRODUCTION METHODOLOGIES NAM SONGKRAM DISCUSSION

  14. POLICY MODELLING (1/2) • Analyse impact of water management policies - different sector policies (Tonle Sap) - different governance levels (Vietnam)  Understand the most critical management and governance issues  Support for planning & decision making • Assists in learning of possibility of compromises  helps in formulating compromise policies INTRODUCTION METHODOLOGIES NAM SONGKRAM DISCUSSION

  15. POLICY MODELLING (2/2) Based on Bayesian causal networks • Probabilistic: efficient handling of uncertainties • Allow multidisciplinary modelling and analysis  both quantitative and qualitative information • Expert / stakeholder consultation essential part  process of developing the model as important as model results ”LEARNING PROCESS” INTRODUCTION METHODOLOGIES NAM SONGKRAM DISCUSSION

  16. SCENARIOS & IMPACTS LINK MATRIX TENDENCIES

  17. S-E ANALYSIS IN NAM SONGKRAM • Aim to support modelling by • Increasing the understanding of local socio-economic conditions, particularly of water-related livelihoods (e.g. fishing, farming) and their trends • Analysing the interconnections with water resources and livelihoods  What are the most critical water-related issues in the area that modelling should address? • Enhancing the participation of local people in modelling work  Integration with modelling work essential INTRODUCTION METHODOLOGIES NAM SONGKRAM DISCUSSION

  18. S-E ANALYSIS IN NAM SONGKRAM • Key issues and questions • What has already been done?  Existing information (databases, surveys, etc.) • Is this enough, or is something more needed? • By you as Thai counterparts • By the modelling project  What should be the focus of the analysis? • What should be the approach of the analysis? • Review of existing literature and information, AND • Database analysis, AND/OR • Village surveys & interviews INTRODUCTION METHODOLOGIES NAM SONGKRAM DISCUSSION

  19. S-E ANALYSIS IN NAM SONGKRAM • Key issues and questions • What are the main institutions working in Nam Songkram related to socio-economics?  cooperation with them? • Who should be the main responsible? • Socio-economic analysis by Thai counterparts • Facilitation and training by WUP-FIN • Integration with modelling together • Vientiane area: bank erosion issue? INTRODUCTION METHODOLOGIES NAM SONGKRAM DISCUSSION

  20. S-E ANALYSIS IN NAM SONGKRAM • Ideas / requests from the BDP of MRC • Modelling: look at the flood pulse concept  how far does the flooding impact of the Mekong reach with different floods?  how different scenarios impact this? • Socio-economic analysis: focus on fisheries  hydrology & fish  fish & people • Make use of already existing information! INTRODUCTION METHODOLOGIES NAM SONGKRAM DISCUSSION

  21. DISCUSSION Comments and questions? www.eia.fi/wup-fin keskinen@iki.fi & olli.varis@hut.fi INTRODUCTION METHODOLOGIES NAM SONGKRAM DISCUSSION

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